5 Under-the-radar Races To Watch Tuesday

Voters across the country are hitting the polls, deciding two gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, where Democratic nominees Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill will be the first statewide tests for the party’s base after President Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

And in California, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s ballot proposition to redraw the state’s congressional lines will provide another glimpse into Democrats’ energy ahead of the 2026 midterms.

But there’s plenty on the ballot outside of the marquee races, and POLITICO will have eyes on it all — including these down-ballot elections, ranging from mayoral contests and ballot initiatives to a high-stakes judicial race.

Pennsylvania’s judicial retention election

In Pennsylvania, a typically quiet state Supreme Court retention election has led to millions in spending and some of the Democratic Party's top names getting involved.

Republicans see a path to flip the high court’s majority ahead of 2028, where justices could see crucial election-related lawsuits, but it rests on voters ousting at least 2 of 3 Democrats on the ballot Tuesday.

The court is also likely to play a key role in the post-2030 Census redistricting fight, and Republicans are already sounding the alarm about the importance of state-level races before then.

Justices Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht have centered much of the retention race on abortion rights, something both Gov. Josh Shapiro and former President Barack Obama keyed in on when they endorsed the justices.

The jurists are not running against an opponent. Voters can either vote "yes" to keep them on the bench for another 10-year term, or "no" to oust them and trigger a new election to replace them.

Georgia’s statewide Public Service Commission

Georgia Democrats are hoping to flip two seats on a statewide utility board, and it’s making Republicans nervous.

When Republicans first took over statewide offices years ago, the Public Service Commission was the first to flip, something both parties have been keen to mention in this race. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has rallied to support the Republicans in the race, who have been candid about their odds.

“I am also praying for torrential rain that day,” GOP Commissioner Tim Echols told POLITICO in September.

As incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff’s seat will be a top target for Republicans to flip next year, the PSC race will be an early indicator of his odds.

Texas’ congressional special election

Voters in Houston could make Speaker Mike Johnson’s House majority slimmer if a Democrat comes away with a majority of the vote in the all-party special election in Texas’ 18th district to replace the late Sylvester Turner. Given the race's crowded field, it’s unlikely that a candidate emerges with a majority, but special elections are unpredictable, so it’s not impossible.

Should no candidate win an outright majority, the top two advance to a runoff, which would take place early next year.

Another complicating factor in the race is that whoever wins is unlikely to serve for very long. After the Lone Star state was redrawn in August by the Texas Legislature at President Donald Trump’s urging, two Democratic districts were effectively crammed together. Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) has worked to lay claim to the new TX-18.

“I will give my consideration to running where my home is, where my constituents are,” Green said at the time. “They were not moved. I was not moved. I will serve my constituents that I have always served.”

Maine’s red flag ballot measure

In Maine, voters will decide on a red flag law that many top Democrats there are opposing despite support from the base. The proposition — which stems from the 2023 Lewiston shooting that left 18 dead — would allow families to go straight to a judge to stop their relatives from purchasing a gun. The state’s current yellow flag law requires police involvement.

Despite gun control becoming a central part of Democratic messaging, a number of the state's top Democrats oppose approving the ballot question. It’s become a proxy battle for the top two Senate primary candidates, too.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills opposes the question, saying it “will undermine the safety of the public,” while her embattled progressive challenger Graham Platner supports the measure.

In the state, which has a high gun-ownership rate, a majority of Democrats support creating a red flag law despite opposition from some within the party, according to public polling from the University of New Hampshire.

The mayors (other than New York)

Allentown, Pennsylvania’s mayoral race may provide a glimpse into where Latino voters stand post-2024.

Latinos make up more than half of the city’s population, and the city’s first Hispanic mayor — Democrat Matthew Tuerk — is up for reelection.

He faces a challenge from Ed Zucal, who faced Tuerk in the Democratic primary while also winning a write-in vote for GOP nomination. Zucal insists he is still a Democrat, but his campaign has focused on messaging that’s more in line with Republicans.

The primary between Tuerk and Zucal was much more contentious than the general has been so far. How voters in the city turn out could show where the key voter bloc is headed after Trump made massive inroads last year.

Other mayoral races to watch: Seattle and Minneapolis, where progressives have launched promising bids to unseat incumbents. And don’t forget the 13-way race in Miami.

A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.