Oddsmakers' Expectations For Philip Rivers' Return Against The Seahawks: 'i Don't Really Have A Clue'

The 2025-26 NFL season has already had plenty of twists and turns, but in a twist that few saw coming, 44-year-old Philip Rivers came out of retirement to sign with the Indianapolis Colts this week — and he will reportedly be the starting QB on Sunday when they take on the Seattle Seahawks in Week 15.

Rivers last played in the 2020-21 season with the Colts and had a respectable QBR of 55.0 (19th), with 4,169 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. That was also when he was 38 and 39 years old ... and four full seasons ago. 

The Colts certainly didn't have much choice internally, as Daniel Jones is out for the season with a torn Achilles, Anthony Richardson is still on injured reserve, and Riley Leonard is nursing a knee injury after being forced into action last week. Indianapolis also signed journeyman Brett Rypien this week.

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Further adding to the storyline is the Colts face a terrific Seahawks team — and defense — in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. Seattle's defense is No. 1 in DVOA, No. 2 in opponent yards per play, No. 2 in opponent third-down conversion percentage ... I could go on, but you get the picture.

To wit, the lookahead line for this game last week at sportsbooks was Seahawks -3.5 and reopened on Sunday at Seahawks -10. It's now all the way out to Seattle -14 at several books, including BetMGM, though oddsmakers don't believe it will go much higher.

"In terms of any more line movement, I don't know where else it could go," said Joey Feazel, head NFL trader at Caesars Sportsbook. "It's a big number, especially against a good Colts team. There's no way sharp bettors won't come in at +14.5 with a non-Tennessee Titans team."

Not surprisingly, the betting public is all over Seattle, with 73% of wagers and 89% of money on the Seahawks to cover at BetMGM. It's also a game Seattle needs to win for the NFC West and the potential No. 1 overall seed in the conference.

So how do oddsmakers think Rivers will fare?

In short — no one really knows.

"Tough one to figure out," Christian Cipollini, BetMGM NFL trader, told Yahoo Sports. "You'd assume he really shouldn't be very good, obviously isn't going to be mobile at all, but compared to the options Indy has, he's probably a small improvement." 

Rivers' passing yardage prop was 150.5 on Saturday, the lowest among Week 15 NFL starting QBs, and the lowest for any starting QB this season — outside of the New York Jets' Justin Fields. By comparison, Shedeur Sanders' O/U was 163.5 for his debut, while the Jets' Brady Cook — an undrafted rookie QB — is currently at 161.5 at BetMGM.

"He’s in decent-enough condition that they signed him," said Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at the Borgata. "It’s tough to say that Rivers would be better than a healthy Leonard, but until you see something from Rivers, I'd have to assume he'd be the lowest-rated present-day NFL starter."

Multiple oddsmakers noted that Rivers' experience gives him an advantage against a terrific Seahawks defense, but conditioning and processing concerns — very reasonable for a 44-year-old QB — were abundant in talking with oddsmakers this week.

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"It's really such an unknown, so I don't really have a clue," one Vegas oddsmaker said in a text message. "I'm treating it like a game manager QB. Assuming they're not going to ask him to do too much. Rely heavily on Jonathan Taylor and the running game and keep the game close."

As Yahoo's Jori Epstein noted this week, there are some comparisons with Joe Flacco coming off the couch to lead the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs in 2023 ... but that Browns defense was better, Flacco was 38 and he'd been out of the NFL for only 11 months (to Rivers' 59 months).

Variance creates opportunity in the betting world, and this is a nearly unprecedented situation. No matter what happens, this will be one of the more fascinating games with a 14-point underdog in recent memory.