Ranking Potential Afc Wild Card Playoff Opponents For Patriots

Ranking potential AFC Wild Card playoff opponents for Patriots originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The New England Patriots are essentially a lock to make the 2025 NFL playoffs, and despite losing to the Buffalo Bills in Sunday’s Week 15 matchup at Gillette Stadium, they still control their own destiny in the AFC East title race.

The Patriots have a 65.3 percent chance to win their first division crown since 2019, per ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).

If the Patriots win the division but don’t secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC, they would play one of the three wild card teams to begin the playoffs on Wild Card Weekend. Entering Week 16, there are five teams that have a realistic chance to earn a wild card berth. Some of these teams might win their division.

Either the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) or Baltimore Ravens (7-7) will win the AFC North title and secure a top-four seed as a result. The team that doesn’t win the division likely will miss the playoffs, so we didn’t include either of those two teams in this ranking, since they wouldn’t face the Patriots either way if New England wins its division.

ESPN’s FPI projects the Ravens to finish second in the division with a 9-8 record, which probably won’t be enough to get them in as a wild card team.

With that said, here’s a list of the toughest possible opponents for the Patriots in the AFC Wild Card Round, ranked from most difficult to least difficult.

1. Buffalo Bills, 10-4

Current seed: No. 6

Sure, the Patriots have already beaten the Bills once this season and it was on the road. But we just saw this matchup on Sunday, and slowing down a Buffalo offense led by Josh Allen and James Cook is a pretty difficult task.

The Bills scored a touchdown on five consecutive drives at one point, and they outscored the Patriots 28-7 in the second half to complete a 35-31 victory despite trailing 21-0 in the first half. Cook scored three touchdowns with 111 total yards, including 4.9 yards per carry.

Allen might be the best quarterback in the sport right now. He’s a nightmare to defend with his ability to shred defenses through the air and on the ground. And as we’ve seen many times this season, including Buffalo’s last two games, Allen is fully capable of leading huge second-half comebacks. This team doesn’t panic when trailing.

There are still legit questions about the Bills’ defense and coaching, but they have the best quarterback of any team on this list by far. For that reason, and others, the Bills are the toughest potential Wild Card matchup for the Patriots.

2. Houston Texans, 9-5

Current seed: No. 7

The Texans have the best defense in the league. This unit ranks No. 1 in points allowed, No. 1 in yards allowed, No. 3 in turnovers, No. 8 in sacks, No. 3 in third down percentage and No. 1 in EPA/play. There are playmakers at every level of this defense.

Houston has played eight games against teams currently in a playoff spot right now, and it allowed more than 20 points in just two of those matchups. So it’s not like these outstanding defensive stats are primarily coming against bad teams.

The Texans have been a middle-of-the-pack team offensively in a lot of ways, but starting quarterback C.J. Stroud is more than capable of making enough plays to win a game.

Houston also doesn’t lack playoff experience. This team is 2-2 in the postseason since 2023.

Even though the Texans might struggle to get to 20 points, their defense would probably represent the toughest challenge Drake Maye has faced this season.

3. Los Angeles Chargers, 10-4

Current seed: No. 5

The Chargers are a good team. They have a top 10 quarterback in Justin Herbert and an experienced head coach in Jim Harbaugh.

Los Angeles plays good teams quite well, even if it isn’t always pretty. The Chargers have beaten the Chiefs (twice), Broncos, Eagles, and Steelers. The Chargers also rank No. 3 in third down conversion percentage on offense.

Herbert fractured his throwing hand in Week 13 but has yet to miss a game. It’s fair to wonder how it will impact him down the stretch. It doesn’t help that he plays behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines.

The Chargers also have a lackluster playoff history. This franchise has one playoff win since 2013. Herbert played awful in last year’s Wild Card defeat to the Texans when he completed just 14 of 32 pass attempts with one touchdown and four interceptions in a 32-14 loss.

The Chargers could lay an egg in the Wild Card Round, but Herbert has the ability to dominate, and that makes them a potentially tough opponent. The recent return of rookie running back Omarion Hampton, who spent a chunk of the season on injured reserve, adds another dimension to L.A.’s offense.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars, 10-4

Current seed: No. 3

The Jaguars are a pretty well-rounded team that ranks eighth in points scored and 10th in points allowed.

It’s not all positive with this team, though.

For example, the Jaguars rank 25th in third down conversion percentage on offense. They also lead the league in accepted penalties with 117. Trevor Lawrence has played well at quarterback this season, but he’s completing only 59.5 percent of his passes. Many of the Jaguars’ best players also have very little playoff experience. Jacksonville has only made one postseason appearance since 2017.

The Jaguars are peaking at the right time, though, and that could make them dangerous. They are playing with all kinds of confidence. And Lawrence, to his credit, has been awesome since the bye week. He is 6-1 with 1,779 total yards and 18 total touchdowns during that span.

If the Jaguars go on the road Sunday and beat the No. 1 seed Broncos, then this likely becomes a different conversation and Jacksonville would have to be moved higher on this list.

5. Indianapolis Colts, 8-6

Current seed: No. 8

The Colts’ rushing attack is legit. Jonathan Taylor is the best running back in the league and was a serious MVP candidate over the first half of the season. And given the Patriots’ struggles against the run, Taylor presents a very difficult matchup. Indy ranks No. 1 in EPA/rush, No. 1 in rushing touchdowns and No. 6 in rushing yards per play.

The issue for the Colts is at quarterback. Philip Rivers coming out of retirement after not playing for five years and taking over as the starter is a cool story, but certainly not an ideal situation from a football perspective, to say the least. He’s very competitive and has loads of experience, but it would be a lot to ask him to go on the road and beat a good team like the Patriots in the Wild Card round.

The Colts also have struggled against good teams. They have a 2-5 record versus opponents that currently occupy a playoff spot, and they finish the season against three more in the 49ers, Jaguars and Texans (in that order). Based on that remaining schedule, the Colts’ chances of earning a playoff berth are likely slim.