Most Western Carmakers Could Be Pushed Out Of China By 2030

The hugely important Chinese car market is continuing to prove challenging for foreign automakers. Chinese manufacturers are maintaining their dominance on the home front, as the world’s largest car market continues to move towards electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

Domestic demand for these so-called New Energy Vehicles rose by 18 percent in 2025. This contrasts with the situation in Europe and the US, where the slowdown in EV adoption steals the headlines.

Tech Wars

One reason why imported cars are falling out of favor is the ability of local carmakers to adapt and update to changing technologies on the ground at a much faster pace. As brands such as BYD, Geely, and Changan continue to battle each other on tech features, they’re leaving Western manufacturers in the dust.

Read: EV Makers Just Got A New Problem In China, And It Starts In 2026

The ability for Chinese automakers to not only develop and implement new tech, but also integrate seamlessly with other existing Chinese tech (such as the WeChat and AliPay “super apps”) is something that consumers value highly.

According to Xiao Feng, speaking to the Wall Street Journal, this could mean that foreign car makers could mostly be pushed out of the Chinese car market by 2030. Save for some big players, such as Tesla, Toyota, and VW, it’ll be hard for imports to compete on both features and EV tech.

Passenger Car Slowdown

Although the adoption of EVs and plug-in hybrids is moving forward rapidly, last year China’s passenger car market grew at its slowest pace in three years, scoring a 4 percent increase and a total of 23.7 million vehicles.

Meanwhile, EV sales have been bolstered by local subsidies, with 2025 incentives being up to $2,900 when consumers traded in their old car for an EV or plug-in hybrid. Some 11.5 million car sales were made through the trade-in incentive, although in December, new car sales reportedly fell by 14%, due to some localities “running out” of their budgets for the incentives.

See Also: BMW And Porsche Just Lost China’s Luxury Market To A $100,000 Newcomer

It’s reported that Beijing will be looking at curtailing subsidies in 2026. Meanwhile, fierce local competition continues to affect both local and foreign brands, with many competitors seemingly locked into a price war.

One study, conducted by the China Automobile Dealers Association, claims that only 30 percent of dealers remained profitable in the first half of 2025, with 75 percent of those surveyed admitting they sold at least a few cars below cost.

Foreign Car Makers Restructure

Last year saw the departure of Mitsubishi from the Chinese market, as the company opted to end all manufacturing and sales, while JLR also underwent a significant scaleback in its product offerings. VW stopped making cars at its Nanjing plant.

Even Tesla, arguably the strongest non-local player, saw sales drop by around 5 percent while it lost the world’s best-selling EV tag to BYD.

However, with China being the largest market, many others are choosing to restructure rather than abandon ship completely. Toyota is building a new Lexus EV plant in Shanghai, VW is ready to launch a whole range of China-specific models, and GM will offer all its products with either an EV or a plug-in hybrid option.