Apple (aapl) Stock: What Wall Street Expects From Earnings Today

TLDR

• Apple reports fiscal Q4 earnings after the bell Monday, its first call under new CEO John Ternus.
• Analysts expect EPS of about $2 on revenue near $113.4 billion, with iPhone sales up about 15%.
• AAPL closed at $344.63 on Friday, down 1.23%, and was off 0.4% in pre-market trading Monday.
• Memory costs, iPhone Duo demand and holiday guidance are the main topics to watch.
• Bank of America removed Apple from its “US 1 List” last week, and Wall Street ratings are mixed.

Apple (AAPL) stock closed at $344.63 on Friday, down 1.23%, ahead of its fiscal fourth-quarter report due after the bell Monday. The stock traded about 0.4% lower in pre-market, near $343.14.

Apple Inc., AAPL

The report is the first with John Ternus as CEO. He took over from Tim Cook on Sept. 1.

Analysts expect earnings per share of about $2 on revenue of $113.46 billion, according to Bloomberg. Koyfin puts revenue at $113.35 billion and adjusted EPS at $1.99. A year ago, Apple posted EPS of $1.85 on revenue of $102.46 billion.

Revenue growth of 11% would be the slowest in four quarters, per Koyfin. So the bar is not as high as the stock’s record run might suggest.

What Analysts Are Watching

iPhone sales are projected at roughly $56.5 billion, up about 15% from last year. Services should top $31.5 billion, which would be growth of almost 10% and its slowest pace in more than three years, per LSEG-Reuters.

Mac sales are expected at $9.69 billion. Wearables should reach $8.99 billion and iPad $6.83 billion.

The iPhone Duo went up for preorder on Oct. 16 and went on sale Oct. 23. That falls outside the fiscal fourth quarter, so investors will be listening for color on demand rather than hard numbers.

Reports of hinge and screen issues with the Duo may come up on the call. Longer wait times, though, point to strong demand.

Memory prices are another focus. Morningstar says it will watch guidance for the December quarter and how higher memory costs affect unit prices. It calls iPhone “the overwhelming driver of the business.”

The touchscreen MacBooks, iPhone Duo and HomeView smart home hub all began shipping in Apple’s current fiscal first quarter. Their sales will show up in the forecast, not in Monday’s results.

Stock Performance Into the Report

Apple has held up better than most big tech names. The stock is up roughly 30% over the past 12 months, while Amazon, Google and Nvidia are up single digits. Microsoft is flat and Meta is down about 15%.

The past month has been tougher for the group. Google, Meta and Nvidia each fell by double digits, and Amazon is slightly lower. Only Apple and Microsoft are in the green.

Apple’s market cap topped $5 trillion earlier this month for the second time. Nvidia is the only other company to reach that level, and Apple briefly passed it last week.

Apple avoided the heavy AI spending that other big tech firms took on. It does not build large data centers or depend on chip sales for revenue.

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits turned “extremely bearish” Monday, even with the stock at an all-time high last week. Morningstar rates Apple “moderately overvalued.”

Of 43 analysts tracked by Koyfin, 24 rate AAPL Buy or higher, 13 say Hold and six say Sell or lower. Bank of America removed the stock from its “US 1 List” last week.

Apple’s next major launches are expected early next year, including a base iPhone 18 and a follow-up to the iPhone Air.

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