Can Harley-davidson Ever Roar Higher Again?

Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) just issued fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings that missed analyst expectations, reporting wider per-share losses than analysts forecast, with revenue also falling short of some projections amid ongoing demand weakness. 

It marks yet another horrible year for the motorcycle stock and its investors. Although the stock plunged more than 10% before the market opened, it has since rebounded and is now up about 4% in noon trading. Is this just a dead cat bounce, or is there actually hope Harley-Davidson can open the throttle once again for growth?

Profits Turn to Losses

Harley has been a disastrous investment for long-term investors. The stock has destroyed significant shareholder value since 2017 — a 63% wipeout — and is trading today at levels similar to the depths of the pandemic in 2020. Investors have seen essentially zero return over the past six years, even as broader markets have climbed.

Consolidated Q4 revenue dropped 28% year-over-year to $496 million, with Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) — the motorcycle division — down 10% and Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) plunging 59%. The full year saw consolidated revenue decline 14% to about $4.47 billion, as HDMC reported a $29 million operating loss for 2025, pressured by lower volumes, tariffs that eroded gross margins by roughly four percentage points, and pricing challenges. The company as a whole swung to an operating loss of $29 million, compared to $278 million in operating income the previous year. 

Flooding the Market, Eroding the Mystique

Several factors have fueled this prolonged downturn. Harley has long ridden a wave of bike sales based on a carefully crafted image of the outlaw biker that it sold to its core customer of middle-aged males who would strap on leather jackets and brain buckets to show their rebelliousness. The big bike’s ubiquitousness ultimately ruined their mystique. 

Successive management regimes further undermined Harley’s ethos. Former CEO Matt Levatich decided selling Harley’s overseas was more important than it’s biggest and most profitable market, the U.S. Although his successor Joachem Zeitz reversed that policy, he made the equally disastrous decision to go all-in on electric motorcycles, creating and then spinning off LiveWire Group (NYSE:LVWR). The initiative has racked up heavy losses since its debut. Boardroom chaos has become a staple for the bike maker.

Moreover, shifting consumer preferences also add to the challenges. Harley’s traditional heavy cruisers appeal less to newer generations, who prefer lighter, more affordable bikes from rivals. The median buyer age has climbed as baby boomers age out, with fewer young riders embracing the classic “outlaw” image.

Blinded by Its Visions

Harley-Davidson has rolled out multiple strategic plans over the years, including The Hardwire that ran from 2021 to 2025, yet revenue and profitability still declined. A new strategic plan is due in May, and management now insists the company has hit bottom. 

It projects flat retail sales of 130,000 to 135,000 units in 2026 — similar to the 132,535 units in 2025 — higher wholesale shipments in the same range (up from 124,477 last year), and a return to growth after 2025’s challenges. HDMC operating income is guided at a $40 million loss to $10 million profit, while HDFS expects $45 million to $60 million in operating income.

Beyond demand softness, external factors have compounded issues. Tariffs have reduced full-year gross margins while HDMC gross margin was pressured by tariff costs and net pricing pressures. These trends highlight ongoing structural challenges in aligning Harley’s supply with ongoing weak retail demand.

To be sure, Harley isn’t alone in this. Polaris Industries (NYSE:PII) Indian Motorcycle is suffering from many of the same cultural shifts as its rival. It’s gotten so bad, Polaris is spinning off the motorcycle business into a standalone company, but that doesn’t make Harley’s situation any better.

Key Takeaway

I’m skeptical of any broad recovery. I’ve always loved and ridden Harleys, but its stock is something I avoid. While shares are rising today after yet another poor earnings result — potentially on the belief that all the bad news may be priced in, and the projection of higher sales in 2026 are lifting investor hopes — management has proven itself poor at predicting the industry’s trends. 

I don’t recommend investors shouldn’t put much stock in Harley-Davidson’s projections — or money in its stock — until it can prove otherwise through sustained results.

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