Canada Lost 68,000 Jobs In September: The October 28 Rate Call Just Got Harder

Canada’s September jobs report gave borrowers a reason to hope interest rates might stay put. It also gave bank investors a reason to examine the customers behind their dividend income. Weaker employment can reduce inflation pressure while making loan repayments harder.

Statistics Canada reported a decline of about 68,000 jobs, following another decline in August. The Bank of Canada’s next decision is October 28. The report now complicates that decision as high energy costs are pushing in the other direction.

The report

The unemployment rate edged up to 6.5%. A falling participation rate helped limit the increase, because fewer people were working or looking for work. The headline rate therefore doesn’t capture every sign of weakness.

The industry mix matters too. Educational services and health care accounted for substantial declines, alongside manufacturing. This wasn’t simply a report about one export industry. It also wasn’t evidence that every Canadian employer had stopped hiring.

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% in September. It highlighted the risk that prolonged high fuel prices and tariffs could spread into other prices. Weak employment can discourage tightening, but it doesn’t remove those supply-related costs.

For a borrower, a quarter-point change can matter without transforming the budget. On a $500,000 balance, 0.25 percentage points equals roughly $1,250 of annual interest at an unchanged balance, or $104 monthly. Actual mortgage payments depend on amortization and contract terms. That’s a useful perspective. The rate announcement matters, but the employment report doesn’t promise a cut, and a small policy move won’t erase a large renewal increase.

BNS

Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX: BNS) offers dividend income, but it also lends to people and businesses affected by the economy. Lower rates can ease borrowers’ payments while changing what the bank earns relative to its funding costs. Scotiabank’s fiscal third-quarter adjusted return on equity reached 14.2%, compared with 12.4% a year earlier. That measures profit relative to shareholders’ equity and gives its turnaround a concrete result.

The current quarterly dividend was $1.14, or $4.56 annualized. At the October 9 close of $126.03, a $10,000 budget bought 79 shares for $9,956.37, generating $360.24 annually if the payment stayed unchanged. The annualized yield was about 3.62%.

Its strategy puts more emphasis on Canadian customer relationships while retaining international operations. That provides several earnings sources, but also means the bank’s results aren’t determined by Canada’s unemployment rate alone. For dividend investors, the practical issue is whether improving operating earnings can absorb credit losses. A dividend history doesn’t make unemployment irrelevant to the lender paying it.

Considerations

My judgment is to hold a measured bank position for its business progress and income, without making the purchase depend on a particular October 28 outcome. Rate changes can help one part of the business while pressuring another. Canadian consumer debt, slower loan demand, and international conditions remain risks. A weaker job market can take time to reach reported credit costs. Strong results from July don’t establish what customers will experience throughout the autumn.

An eligible Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) can shelter Canadian dividend income. Keeping emergency savings outside the long-term stock allocation is especially useful when employment uncertainty is rising. A bank holding should not become the household’s substitute for accessible cash.

The useful next evidence is the combination of inflation and lending results. Cooler inflation with manageable loan losses would support a different outlook from weaker jobs accompanied by persistent price pressure. The current report leaves both concerns visible.

Bottom line

September’s job losses make an October rate increase harder to justify, but high fuel prices prevent an automatic rate-cut conclusion. Scotiabank offers improving profitability and dividend income, with lending risk still present. Borrowers need a budget that works under several rate outcomes. Investors need earnings that survive more than one announcement.

The post Canada Lost 68,000 Jobs in September: The October 28 Rate Call Just Got Harder appeared first on The Motley Fool Canada.

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Fool contributor Amy Legate-Wolfe has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.