College Football Week 9 Thread

This week’s top 10 games, based on the Athletic’s rankings of all teams from 1-138.

1. #19 Arizona at #16 Texas Tech (-3.5), 12, ESPN. Arizona has been the most underrated team in college football this year. They have a great senior QB in Noah Fifita and they are fun to watch. America was waiting for Texas Tech to lose after them wanting to blow up college football to play The Gambler as their QB. So that finally happened in pretty convincing fashion at Cincinnati. The problem for Tech here is that their run defense is iffy, Cincy ran all over them, and Arizona is good on the ground. That’s a tough reality to overcome. This line is pretty close, but I have come to believe in Arizona. Bear Down!
2. #25 Wisconsin at #29 Iowa (-2.5), 12, FOX. Wisconsin just embarrassed USC. Iowa just lost to Minnesota. These are pretty similar teams. There won’t be a lot of points. Wisconsin has proven out this year much more than expected. Iowa is Iowa. It’s going to be close. I think I like Wisconsin here by just a touch, especially with a couple of points.
3. #37 Auburn at #13 Ole Miss (-12.5), 12:45, SEC. Which Auburn team shows up is the question. One might ask which Ole Miss team shows up too since that loss to Texas wasn’t pretty. But other than that Georgia win, Auburn hasn’t looked great and Ole Miss is playing for their playoff lives. I think the Rebels take care of business by 2 TDs.
4. #15 Florida vs. #3 Georgia (-12.5), 3:30, ABC. This feels like a large line. I’m not real worried about Georgia’s loss to Auburn and I’m not crediting Florida with hammering Texas too much; Georgia has been consistent otherwise and Florida quite inconsistent. This is in Atlanta so is more or less a home game for Georgia, but there will be lots of Florida fans there too so it’s not that overwhelming of an advantage. It would not shock me if Florida had one of its less great games and Georgia covers this. But I wouldn’t bet on 12.5 here. So Florida is my bet.
5. #28 Minnesota at #7 Indiana (-20.5), 3:30, CBS. What I don’t like about this line isn’t that I don’t think Indiana is quite a bit better than Minnesota. But Indiana’s offense has been shaky and to win by 3 TDs, you need a good offense. Meanwhile, the Gophers have a solid defense. The Hoosiers are 1-7 against the spread. Minnesota just took out Iowa in a tough win. I like Minnesota to keep this quite a bit closer than 3 TDs.
6. #23 Northwestern at #32 Oregon (-3.5), 3:30, Peacock. Your money pick of the week is Northwestern +3.5. This line makes no sense. I hate to say it but Oregon is terrible. Dante Moore is out for the year. Oregon fired its horrific offensive coordinator finally, but there’s no reason to think it will be any better with some in-house guy taking over for the year (the guy was Wyoming’s OC last year and was fired so…), a lot of seniors came back to win a title and now have nothing to play for. On the other side, you have a rising Northwestern team with…Chip Kelly as its OC. Chip is going to enjoy himself in Eugene. Northwestern will win this game. Makes me sick, but the only reason this spread is what it is has to do with the name of the schools.
7. #4 Utah at #40 Cincinnati (+7), 3:45, ESPN. Here’s a challenging line. Cincy is just coming off a big win against Texas Tech. Utah looks like a very fine team and took care of Houston. But I’m not totally convinced that Utah is a top 5 team, even as they haven’t lost. That’s going to happen some time. A tough road game against a confident team just having taken out another undefeated time seems like a real possibility. At the very least, give me Cincy keeping it within a TD.
8. #30 South Carolina at #36 Oklahoma (-3.5), 4:15, SEC. Here’s another line I don’t get. Oklahoma has a nice defense, but John Mateer is a bad QB. South Carolina just beat Tennessee to salvage their season. It’s true that the Gamecocks have been mighty inconsistent this year but if you are giving me points here, I am taking South Carolina +3.5.
9. #27 Mississippi State at #9 Texas (-20.5), 7:30, ESPN. Kamario Taylor is out for the season. Mississippi State has nothing without him. I don’t like Sark and I don’t think this is a good Texas team and Arch Manning is the most overrated player in college football history, but I like Texas to win by 3 TDs at least.
10. #1 Ohio State at #33 USC (+6.5), 7:30, NBC. I don’t believe USC can handle Ohio State at all. I mean, they lost to the worst Oregon team in a decade at home with a defense so bad that Dylan Raiola tore them up and has been unplayable ever since. Meanwhile, Ohio State has the best receiver in college football in the 21st century. This feels like not a close game to me. OSU by at least a TD.

Last week I was all of 2-8, ending several weeks of good picks. Ouch! 49-46 on the season.

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