Compass Ceo Says 42% Of Homes Took A Price Cut

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Compass (NYSE:COMP) CEO Robert Reffkin went on CNBC this morning with a striking data point and a buyer-friendly pitch. He said 42% of homes on the market in September have taken a price cut, the highest share in nearly a decade, and called it a great time to be a buyer. The problem: the two outside numbers that matter most tell a different story.

Price Cuts Mask Still-Rising Home Values

A trim off an aspirational asking price still leaves the house expensive. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index hit 336.7 in June 2026, up 0.4% from the prior month and the highest reading of the past year. Existing-home data tells the same story: sales fell 2% month over month in August, the slowest pace in 14 months, yet prices are still up 1.6% year over year.

Financing costs have moved the wrong way for buyers too. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% on Sept. 8, 2026, a one-year high sitting in the 99.6th percentile of the trailing year, which is why 30-year mortgage rates are at their highest level in more than a year. Reffkin misspoke on air calling mortgage rates an all-time high; the CNBC anchor corrected the framing to a one-year high.

A Sharply Bifurcated Housing Market

The pain is concentrated at the bottom. Reffkin said homes priced between $100,000 and $250,000 are down 10%, while homes at $1 million and above are up 4%, because high-end buyers are paying all cash with the stock market at an all-time high. The wealth-effect buyer is winning; the mortgage-dependent buyer is getting squeezed.

That bifurcation shows up in Compass’s own numbers. On the Aug. 4 earnings call, Reffkin said “the wealth effect created by a record stock market in a growing U.S. economy has been a driver of demand for our business and is helping offset the rise in interest rates.” Compass’s average selling price appreciated 8%, with the average price just over $1 million. In San Francisco, 140 transactions in the first half closed at least $1 million above asking, versus 8 in the same period a year earlier.

Wall Street’s Verdict on the Brokerage

Q2 was strong on the surface: revenue of $4.31 billion beat consensus by 4.70%, up 109.07% year over year on the Anywhere Real Estate merger, with adjusted EBITDA of $363 million and brokerage GTV up 15.9% year over year on a pro forma basis versus a market up 6%. But EPS of $0.11 missed the $0.2497 estimate by 55.95%, and Q3 revenue guidance of $3.85 billion to $4.05 billion pointed to a sequential slowdown.

Investors are voting with their feet. COMP trades at $10.52, down 15.16% over the past month from $12.40 on Aug. 10. Reffkin’s read on the buyer is optimistic; his own stock tells a different story.

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