Cubs Tweak Their Rotation To Line Things Up Better Against The Brewers

At least the West Coast is in our rearview mirror, because that road trip suuuuuuuucked.

Now, the Cubs head back home to Wrigley Field for their final three games (against the Reds) before the Brewers gauntlet begins. To that end, in case you forgot what’s coming on Monday, the Cubs will host the Brewers for four games at Wrigley Field, play three against the Marlins, and then head to Milwaukee for three more against the Brewers. Seven out of ten against the Brewers, all in ten days.

But at least the Cubs are being smart. They’ve rejiggered their rotation ever so slightly to make sure that Shota Imanaga, who has been shaky, goes this weekend against the Reds while Clay Holmes, who has looked excellent, goes next week against the Brewers, instead of the opposite. The off-day (and the fact that Imanaga threw only two innings last weekend) made it easier to accomplish.

By the way, Imanaga faced the Brewers once this season. And in that matchup, Milwaukee scored eight runs on nine hits (including two homers) and three walks against just two strikeouts.

So here’s how it’s going to play out with Imanaga following Gausman this time through the rotation instead of Holmes following Gausman like it was the last time through:

• David Peterson vs Reds
• Kevin Gausman vs Reds
• Shota Imanaga vs Reds
• Clay Holmes vs Brewers
• Matthew Boyd vs Brewers
• David Peterson vs Brewers
• Kevin Gausman vs Brewers

That’s a good plan. Also good news? Dustin May was originally scheduled to pitch for the Brewers against the Cubs, but their rotation plans got moved around a bit too. And now, the Cubs will get Robert Gasser instead of May. That’s good because May held the Cubs scoreless on one hit and two walks over five innings in their last meeting at the end of July (when he was still with the Cardinals). And if you remember, May was absolutely CRUISING against the Cubs in that start; The Cardinals only took him out so they could trade him. Meanwhile, Gasser has a 4.59 ERA over 15 starts and 82.1 IP this season. A much, much better matchup for the Cubs.

But that’s also where the good news ends. Because the Brewers have their other three best starters scheduled to pitch against the Cubs next week, including Kyle Harrison on Monday, (Robert Gasser on Tuesday), Jacob Misiorowski on Wednesday, and Logan Henderson on Thursday.

Kyle Harrison, who has a 2.79 ERA (3.29 FIP) this season, has faced the Cubs twice this year, dominating them both times …

• 5/20: 7.0 IP, 2H, 0ER, 1BB, 11K
• 6/27: 5.0 IP, 3H, 2ER, 1BB, 9K

Jacob Misiorowski, who has a 1.73 ERA (2.14 FIP) and is the NL Cy Young front-runner, also dominated the Cubs twice already this season:

• 5/19: 6.0 IP, 3H, 0ER, 1BB, 8K
• 6/26: 6.0 IP, 2H, 2ER, 4BB, 8K

Logan Henderson has not faced the Cubs this season, but has a 2.60 ERA (3.33 FIP) with a 29.9% strikeout rate and just a 5.3% walk rate over 13 starts.

So basically, those matchups should go:

• Clay Holmes vs Kyle Harrison
• Matthew Boyd vs Robert Gasser
• David Peterson vs Jacob Misiorowski
• Kevin Gausman vs Logan Henderson

Of course, those seven games will barely matter if the Cubs don’t take care of business against the Reds this weekend. The divisional hopes may already be toast, but I had been waiting to make that declaration until after the Cubs face the Brewers. But that was only because, for a while, we were in that 4-5 games back range. If the Cubs are going to be 7.0+ out by the time they meet Milwaukee … I mean. Well, I think you know what I mean. So let’s beat the Reds and at least make it interesting.

One final thought for the biggest doomers out there: Even if the Cubs don’t stand a realistic shot at overtaking the Brewers before the end of the year, it behooves the team to keep pushing hard. If the Brewers are allowed to coast into a first or second seed, they may get that small additional edge of resting their best arms (bullpen and rotation) down the final stretch. But if you at least keep some pressure on, they’ll have to keep using everyone more often. So let’s win this weekend and see where next week takes us. Then we can make our broad declarations.