How Arkansas Baseball's Hope Of Hosting Regional Is Building Momentum

FAYETTEVILLE — Arkansas baseball entered the final weekend of the last three regular seasons competing for an SEC championship.

This year, the Razorbacks (34-18, 15-12) are fighting to stay at home during the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

The Hogs won two-of-three games against Oklahoma in their most recent league series and have built a résumé worthy of consideration to be a regional host. In early April, it felt like a certainty that Dave Van Horn's squad would be a two-seed in a regional and have to leave Baum-Walker Stadium for the postseason.

There's a more favorable outlook on Arkansas' status as it prepares to close the regular season with a road series against Kentucky, but have they done enough to be considered a top-16 seed?

Here's a look at what history tells us about regional hosts in the last decade, and where the Razorbacks stack up with just two weeks remaining until Selection Monday.

Will Arkansas baseball's RPI be good enough?

Below are the teams with the lowest-rated RPI to host a regional in each of the last 10 NCAA Tournaments.

• 2025: Southern Miss, No. 19
• 2024: Arizona, No. 35
• 2023:Auburn, No. 30
• 2022: Texas A&M, No. 22
• 2021: Louisiana Tech, No. 27
• 2019:Ole Miss, No. 22
• 2018: Coastal Carolina, No. 25
• 2017: Houston, No. 19
• 2016: Virginia, No. 23
• 2015: Louisville, No. 24

The average RPI rating for these 10 teams is 24.6. Arkansas enters the final weekend of the regular season sitting at No. 26 in the RPI.

The Hogs have been trending in the right direction ever since they went on the road and swept Alabama in mid-April. They've won three of their four SEC series since then, with the only loss coming to league champion Georgia. Arkansas also took care of business in midweek games against UAPB, Missouri State and Northwestern State.

Failing to beat the lesser opponents on the schedule earlier in the season is a big reason why Arkansas doesn't have a top-20 RPI at the moment. The Hogs are 10-3 against Quad 4 opponents. Only Florida (11) and Oregon State (16) are ranked higher than Arkansas with that many losses against Quad 4 opponents.

On the flip side, the best case for Arkansas is its number of victories against the country's best teams. The Hogs are 13-11 vs. Quad 1 opponents, and there are only five teams in the country with that many wins in the category. One of those teams is Ole Miss, who is 13-15 and has a series loss to the Razorbacks.

What about the SEC record?

Below are the SEC teams with the worst league record to host a regional in each of the last 10 NCAA Tournaments.

• 2025: Ole Miss and Tennessee, 16-14
• 2024: Georgia, 17-13
• 2023: Kentucky and Alabama, 16-14
• 2022: Florida, 15-15
• 2021: Florida, 17-13
• 2019: Ole Miss, 16-14
• 2018: Georgia, Ole Miss and Arkansas, 18-12
• 2017: Arkansas, 18-11
• 2016: Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, 18-12
• 2015: Texas A&M, 18-10

In the last decade, 18 wins has been a magic number for all but one SEC team: Arkansas in 2022.

That version of the Hogs went 18-12 in the league but didn't host due to an RPI in the low 40s. In recent seasons, 17 league victories are normally enough to play at home during the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. South Carolina in 2018, Mississippi State in 2017 and Arkansas in 2015 were No. 2 seeds with 17 SEC victories.

The Hogs are 15-12 in the league with three games remaining. A series victory against Kentucky feels like a minimum requirement. A sweep could be enough to put Arkansas in a favorable position, but the Hogs have just one SEC sweep on the season.

Looking at other metrics and the competition

The DSR is another rating system used by the selection committee. Arkansas is No. 19 after the series win over Oklahoma.

The "eye-test" can loom large, but it's impossible to quantify. In looking at polls that were already released on Monday, May 11, Baseball America ranks Arkansas No. 10 and D1Baseball has the Hogs at No. 12. Both of those rankings fall within the top-16.

However, the teams Arkansas is directly competing with for a home regional fared well during the most recent weekend of play. In D1Baseball's latest Field of 64 projections released on May 5, the final three hosts were No. 14 Southern Miss, No. 15 Oregon State and No. 16 Oregon. The next three projected seeds were No. 17 Nebraska, No. 18 Boston College and No. 19 Ole Miss.

Only Oregon lost its weekend series, and the Ducks played No. 1 UCLA. West Virginia was the projected No. 24 seed, and the Mountaineers swept Kansas.

This is the predicament Arkansas has put itself in. Even with a strong close to the year, the Hogs need teams surrounding their place in the seeding pecking order to falter down the stretch.

But will it even matter?

If Arkansas doesn't get a home regional, the Razorbacks will be on the road for the first time since 2022. That year, Van Horn's squad made it all the way to the College World Series.

Jackson Fuller covers Arkansas football, basketball and baseball for the Southwest Times Record, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at jfuller@usatodayco.com or follow him @jacksonfuller16 on X, formerly known as Twitter. 

This article originally appeared on Fort Smith Times Record: Arkansas baseball hosting a Fayetteville regional is gaining steam