How Safe Is Michigan’s Projected 1-seed In The Ncaa Tournament?

At 27-2 overall and with the Big Ten regular-season championship secured, Dusty May and the Michigan Wolverines must continue fighting to lock in a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament. With as many as five games left prior to the NCAA Tournament, it’s still possible they can be the top overall seed and pick where they want to go. But it’s also still a possibility for Michigan to drop to a 2-seed if all goes wrong over the next couple weeks.

As of this writing, things are looking great for the Wolverines, as they are one of three teams deemed as a consensus 1-seed on BracketMatrix (Duke and Arizona are the other two). But what happens if Michigan drops some games it shouldn’t? How safe is that projected 1-seed?

Let’s break things down a bit.

What Michigan has working in its favor

• The sheer amount of quality wins: For starters, Michigan’s resume is already fantastic. The NCAA Tournament selection committee values wins against top competition. The Wolverines’ have performed really well in Quad 1 games this season (11-1, with the loss coming to No. 1 Duke). Michigan also has just one blemish in 11 total games in the Quad 2 department with its loss at home vs Wisconsin, However, if the Badgers move up a couple spots in the NET rankings prior to the end of the season, that would become another Quad 1 loss for Michigan, further strengthening its resume.
  • Even if the Wolverines split their remaining high-end games (vs MSU on Sunday, and then any quality opponents in the Big Ten Tournament, the foundation should be strong enough to keep them at a 1-seed.
• Zero bad losses: In addition to quality wins, the selection committee also values avoiding losses to vastly inferior teams. Michigan has zero Quad 3/Quad 4 losses this year, and as previously mentioned, its lone Quad 2 loss could eventually become a Quad 1 loss.
• The analytics back up Michigan: The committee doesn’t use KenPom as an official tool for making any decisions, but predictive metrics do matter when it comes to context. As the No. 2 team in the country, Michigan’s rating on KenPom and in the NET rankings suggests sustainability. That’s also reflected in Evan Miya’s (No. 1) and Bart Torvik’s (No. 1) respective rating systems.

What it would take to knock Michigan down to a 2-seed

• A rough end to the season: If Michigan were to drop multiple games down the stretch, the door opens for it to drop to a 2-seed. Both games this week — at Iowa, vs MSU — are against Quad 1 teams, so this probably wouldn’t be enough to drop Michigan down a seed line. But if that happens AND Michigan loses its opening game in the Big Ten Tournament next Friday, things may get interesting.
• Other teams below them keep winning: Michigan not only needs to keep winning games to stay as a 1-seed, but other teams behind it need to lose. Unfortunately, two of the teams trying to get to a 1-seed (UConn and Florida) are as hot as any team in the country. There are also three teams in the Big 12 (Houston, Iowa State, Kansas) that could pose a threat to dethrone a currently-projected 1-seed should they go on a run in their conference tournament.

So how safe is Michigan’s projected 1-seed?

Right now, I don’t think there’s a ton of reason to panic. I think the Wolverines should be able to handle business in at least one of their games this week, and I’d be surprised if they didn’t at least play in the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament next week, meaning at least one victory in Indianapolis as well.

My worst case scenario: Michigan goes 2-2 the rest of the way.

My best case scenario: Michigan runs the table, wins the Big Ten Tournament and solidifies itself as a 1-seed.

Even in my worst case scenario, I still think the Wolverines end up as a 1-seed. There would be some doubt, for sure, especially without exactly knowing how the other teams behind them would do. But given the overall resume they have built over the season, I think May and company would still wind up being one of the 1-seeds.

Do you agree with my assessment? Let me know what you think down in the comments section below!