Nfl Odds, Betting, Storylines: 3 Underdogs To Back In Week 4

Sometimes in life, you've got to go against the grain. And in this case, the "grain" is the vast majority of the NFL betting public with my Week 4 NFL underdog recommendations.

Not only am I backing one team that has yet to win a game or cover a point spread, and another team whose quarterback has six more turnovers than touchdown passes, but in both instances I'm fading two squads that are 3-0 SU and ATS.

My third NFL underdog recommendation? Let's ride the only other franchise that — to the shock of most everyone — is off to a 3-0 start on the field and in the wagering department.

Patriots at Bills (-6.5)

The Bills are one of those 3-0 SU and ATS squads. The Patriots, meanwhile, have dropped two of their first three (both on the road), with the latest being an atrocious performance in Jacksonville.

In other words, this is the quintessential sell-high, buy-low situation.

Look, I get it: New England quarterback Drake Maye (one touchdown pass, seven turnovers) has been an unmitigated disaster. At the same time, Buffalo's Josh Allen (five passing touchdowns, six rushing touchdowns) is currently — and deservedly — favored to win his second MVP in three years.

However, contrary to their perfect record, the Bills haven't been perfect in execution. In Week 1, they struggled to put away a Houston team that remains winless. In that contest, the Texans put up 31 points (they have since scored 23 in two games against Cincinnati and Indianapolis).

And while Buffalo led wire-to-wire against Detroit in Week 2, the Lions made things interesting in the second half (while scoring 31 points in the final three quarters). Then last week, following a 10-day layoff, the Bills fell behind 10-0 to a Chargers squad that lost its first two games at home to Arizona and Las Vegas.

Yes, Buffalo overcame that deficit and five turnovers — including two Allen interceptions — to post a comfortable 24-16 victory (thanks in large part to the Chargers being the Chargers). But the point is, the Bills haven't been world-beaters. 

They also didn't have an easy go of it against the Patriots last year, losing 23-20 at home (as 7.5-point favorites) and falling behind 24-7 at New England before rallying for a 35-31 win.

In fact, the Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six against Buffalo (all as a 'dog). And last week's ugly showing at Jacksonville aside, New England is still on a 13-4 ATS run (9-2 on the road).

Also of note: The Bills haven't covered the spread in four straight games since early in the 2017 season.

Bet: Patriots +6.5

Dolphins at Vikings (-10.5)

And now for the ultimate sell-high, buy-low scenario: The Miami Dolphins have absolutely lived down to their preseason expectations. Not only are they 0-3 SU and ATS, but all three losses were by 14-plus points.

The Dolphins are tied for dead last (with the aforementioned Patriots) in scoring offense (12 points per game). They're one of five teams allowing more than 28 points per game. And their only real asset — running back De'Von Achane — will be in street clothes the rest of the season after tearing his ACL last week against Kansas City.

Meanwhile, Miami's Week 4 opponent is 3-0 SU and ATS this season after closing out 2025 on a five-game winning streak (4-0-1 ATS).

So why am I quite possibly the only person on the planet willing to invest in the Dolphins this week? The plain and simple answer: This point spread is absurd. Because Minnesota isn't nearly as good as its untarnished record suggests.

Consider these facts: 

The Vikings got outgained 419-239 in their season-opening win over Green Bay (a game the Packers led 22-10 late in the third quarter). 

The Vikings got outgained 297-246 in their 9-3 win at Chicago in Week 2 (a game the Bears were poised to win until Caleb Williams tweaked his hamstring late).

The Vikings got outgained 243-230 (and produced just nine first downs) in last week's 23-16 win at Tampa Bay.

Out of 32 NFL teams, Minnesota ranks 32nd in total offense (238.3 ypg), 32nd in passing offense (137 ypg), 32nd in first downs (39) and 31st in third-down conversion rate.

I know the Vikings' defense has been as dominant as the offense has been inept. But this team has no business being a double-digit favorite. Against anyone. Including Miami.

Bet: Dolphins +10.5

Chiefs (-4.5) at Raiders

I was highly impressed with the Chiefs in their 31-10 season-opening beatdown of Denver. I have not been impressed — at all — since.

In the Week 2 Sunday night contest, the Colts handed Kansas City a 33-30 win, thanks to horrendous coaching decisions in overtime (and the Chiefs failed to cover as 6-point home favorites). 

Then last week, KC went to Miami, outgained the Dolphins by a whopping 5 yards (334-329) and needed 10 fourth-quarter points to turn a 14-10 nail-biter into a 24-10 victory that was far from a work of art.

As for the Raiders, I have been fully impressed — with everything — from the very first snap. And it's not just that they're another team that's 3-0 SU and ATS. It's how Las Vegas has performed across the board.

The offense has been productive (27, 26 and 35 points in victories over the Dolphins, Chargers and Saints) and efficient (only four turnovers). The defense has been stout (18 points, 316.7 yards per game), physical (10 sacks, tied for fourth most in the league) and opportunistic (nine forced turnovers). And perhaps most surprisingly, the Raiders — yes, Raiders — have been disciplined, committing just 17 penalties (tied for fifth fewest in the NFL).

Obviously, this is a huge step up in competition for a team led by 38-year-old quarterback Kirk Cousins (whose 107.2 rating is right behind the 108.9 rating of Patrick Mahomes). But I believe the new-look Silver & Black is ready to meet the challenge.

Do I expect Las Vegas to win? Tough to go there, considering it has beaten Mahomes just twice in 15 tries. But I do expect the Raiders to get inside the number — something they've done in five of their last seven games as an underdog and four of the last five times they've faced the Chiefs.

Bet: Raiders +4.5

LAST WEEK: 2-0

SEASON: 4 -4