Saturday Rockpile: A Rockies Guide To A Potentially Truncated Offseason

Of course kids love baseball. Everybody loves baseball. But the lost games, canceled World Series and changed landscape left behind by the 1994–95 players’ strike remind us that the business side of the game we love is anything but child’s play.

More than 30 years later, Major League Baseball is once again approaching a potential work stoppage that could leave the Colorado Rockies with less than a month to conduct much of their offseason business.

MLB’s free-agent market opens shortly after the World Series, with players permitted to sign with new teams five days after the final out. But the current collective bargaining agreement expires December 1, and another lockout is widely anticipated.

Meanwhile, MLB’s owners have proposed a salary floor and cap that could eventually change how much teams are required to spend.

For Colorado, that raises a few questions: How much money might the Rockies have to spend, how quickly should they act, and where should they invest it?

A salary floor? Not so fast

Under MLB’s initial proposal, teams would operate between a $171.2 million salary floor and a $245.3 million cap in 2027.

Before looking ahead, it helps to understand where Colorado stood financially in 2026. The Rockies’ estimated 2026 cash payroll was $120 million, with a competitive balance tax (CBT) payroll of $138 million, ranking them 21st in MLB by cash payroll.

2026 MLB payroll comparison

Source: FanGraphs RosterResource. Estimated 2026 payroll figures, rounded to the nearest million. Rankings based on cash payroll.

Looking ahead to 2027, Colorado’s projected CBT payroll is in the neighborhood of $110 million, potentially leaving the Rockies roughly $60 million below the proposed minimum.

That’s not exactly pocket change.

Now, an offseason where the Rockies suddenly have to spend another $60 million would be tremendously entertaining. I’d happily spend November dreaming up ways to convince Tarik Skubal to pitch at Coors Field on a one-year deal.

Unfortunately, that’s probably not where these negotiations are headed.

For starters, CBT payroll isn’t the same as cash payroll. It uses the average annual value of contracts and includes arbitration estimates, benefits and other obligations. The precise gap also depends on how those costs are calculated under a new agreement.

More importantly, the MLB Players Association has opposed the owners’ proposed salary cap, and neither the cap nor the accompanying salary floor has been agreed upon.

As Andy McCullough reported for The Athletic, the proposal includes a negotiated transition period, with one executive suggesting implementation could take years.

So the proposed floor might mean bupkis for Colorado’s immediate offseason. There’s no established requirement for the Rockies to add $60 million to their 2027 payroll.

But another deadline is approaching much faster.

November could get busy

Predicting what Paul DePodesta and Josh Byrnes might do is difficult. Their first offseason in Colorado was already abbreviated by their late arrival, and a potential lockout could make their second one unusual for entirely different reasons.

But they were hardly inactive. Despite limited time, the new front office made substantial changes to the roster, including bringing in several players on major-league contracts.

They’ve already shown they’re willing to make moves.

As McCullough reported, executives and agents anticipate an accelerated free-agent market ahead of a potential December 1 lockout. Players and teams alike could look to complete deals before a work stoppage disrupts normal business. The middle tier of free agency could be particularly active.

For Colorado, that’s an opportunity worth taking seriously.

The Rockies should enter November with their targets identified, evaluations completed and financial parameters established. Acting quickly doesn’t mean signing players out of desperation. It means being prepared to move when an opportunity presents itself.

The answer is pitching

Looking back at the Rockies’ free-agent activity under previous front offices offers a pretty good blueprint for what not to do.

The results have ranged from expensive disasters like Kris Bryant’s seven-year, $182 million contract to bargain finds like C.J. Cron, who initially joined Colorado on a minor-league deal.

And the Rockies haven’t been unwilling to spend money on pitching. Ahead of the 2018 season, they committed a combined $106 million to relievers Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee.

But when it came to adding outside starting pitching, Colorado’s approach was considerably more conservative.

Rockies MLB free-agent starting pitcher signings from outside the organization

Outside starting pitchers signed to major-league free-agent contracts. Excludes minor-league deals, extensions, re-signings, trades and waiver claims.

Seven offseasons. Two outside starters.

DePodesta and Byrnes signed three in their first winter alone. Not every move worked, but the change in approach is hard to miss.

And with Colorado’s rotation finishing 2026 with a 6.28 ERA, the worst in baseball, that approach needs to continue.

So, what comes next?

The Rockies could use a right-handed corner outfielder and a defense-first backup catcher. But the biggest need is obvious.

Pitching. And lots of it.

That doesn’t mean bringing back every familiar veteran or signing another pitcher because he was good three years ago.

Colorado needs new arms, different arms, and as many legitimate options as possible.

Beyond traditional major-league free agency, that means exploring the Japanese and Korean markets, pursuing trades and aggressively adding minor-league pitching depth.

The minor-league market could be particularly interesting with a lockout looming. Minor leaguers have a separate CBA extending through December 2027, meaning players outside the major-league bargaining unit can generally continue developing even if MLB shuts down.

And the opportunities for organizational improvement could extend beyond the field.

Ryan Spilborghs raised an interesting possibility on a recent podcast: If other organizations make staffing cuts during a lockout, Colorado could have an opportunity to bring in experienced talent to the analytics department.

The Rockies are already working to strengthen their scouting and analytical departments. They reportedly added veteran scout Steve Barningham, and the organization is actively recruiting a senior or lead baseball analytics analyst.

For those interested in applying, applications are open through October 30.

The Rockies have the money. They have obvious needs. And whether it’s acquiring players before a shutdown or improving the organization during one, they have opportunities to make progress.

They don’t have to win the offseason. But they have every reason to be involved in it.

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