Spacex Earnings: Hotly Anticipated First Report Comes As The Stock Tumbles 15% Since Ipo
IPO
SpaceX's first earnings report since its historic IPO is about to drop, and it comes at a sensitive time for the stock, which has tumbled 15% from the $135 offering price.
Wall Street isn't expecting the company to report a surprise profit. Starlink, its satellite internet business, is where investors will want to see growth in order to keep the money coming in while other projects pan out.
The report comes two days before a lockup expiration is set to significantly increase the public float, or the amount of stock available to trade. On August 6, insiders and early investors will be allowed to sell nearly a billion shares into the market, or about $106.4 billion worth of stock based on Monday's closing price.
It could be a fresh headwind, and with a staggered lockup expiry schedule, investors could be in for months of volatility as supply of SpaceX stock steadily balloons.
SpaceX will report earnings after the 4 p.m. ET closing bell. The call with analysts will begin around 4:30 p.m. ET.
SpaceX's lockup expiration schedule is "unusually complex," analysts at Bernstein wrote on Monday. The company will unlock insider shares at nine distinct points in time, rather than unlocking most insider shares at a single point 180 days following the IPO.
SpaceX shares will likely face pressure until most lockups expire at the end of the year, the firm added.
"We do not attempt to predict how shares will move as expirations come up in succession into December. But, we have found many investors unwilling to buy SpaceX shares in the interim, based on fundamentals, given the lockup overhang that will exist at least into December," analysts wrote.
Patrick T. Fallon / AFP via Getty Images
Jay Wood, chief markets strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, says investors will be focused on the forecast for the coming year and beyond. He said that the most pressing item on investors' minds will likely be capex spending, the central theme of Q2 earnings season.
"In particular, look for guidance on spending for Starship, Starlink, AI infrastructure and other long-term initiatives," he said. "It's known that SpaceX will keep investing, the real question is whether management can convince investors those investments will generate meaningful returns without sacrificing the path to profitability and free cash flow."
Woods added that investors hoping to hear CEO Elon Musk address a potential SpaceX and Tesla merger will likely be disappointed.
SpaceX's first-ever earnings report has the potential to turn the narrative around for the stock, assuming that CEO Elon Musk talks up his outlook for the company, Hardika Singh, a strategist on Fundstrat's Market Intelligence team, wrote this week.
"If Tesla's earnings calls are any guide, Chief Executive Elon Musk will likely boast about his grandiose ideas and make aggressive projections," Singh wrote. "If he skips that playbook tomorrow because of the recent bloodbath in tech stocks, then that would be a further hit to sentiment."
Musk will likely avoid giving guidance on SpaceX's profitability, she added. The company reported a net $4.9 billion loss in 2025.
TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP via Getty Images
Deutsche analyst Edison Yu rates SpaceX stock as a "Buy" and maintains a bullish $255 price target as the company heads into its first earnings report.
In a note to investors, Yu wrote that his team attributes much of the stock's recent volatility to fears about shares flooding the market as staggered lockup periods expire.
"We are optimistic, following the lock-ups coming off, that the stock can stabilize at some level," Yu wrote. "Moreover,announcing a large government/sovereign AI deal would be viewed positively for the stock."
Second quarter
- Revenue estimate $6.81 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
- AI segment operating loss estimate $2.39 billion
- Net loss attributable to holders estimate $2.11 billion
- Loss per share estimate 24c
- Pro forma loss per share estimate 24c
- Starlink subscribers estimate 12.19 million
- Starlink ARPU estimate $65.60
- Adjusted Ebitda estimate $2 billion
- AI segment adjusted EBITDA Loss estimate $15.5 million
- AI segment total revenue estimate $2.08 billion
- Space segment adjusted EBITDA loss estimate $409.9 million
- Space segment net sales estimate $873.7 million
- Connectivity segment adjusted EBITDA estimate $2.41 billion
- Connectivity segment revenue estimate $3.88 billion
- Total Costs & Expenses estimate $8.52 billion
- Capital expenditure estimate $18.58 billion
- AI segment capital expenditure estimate $13.09 billion
- R&D expenses estimate $4.39 billion
- Cash and cash equivalents estimate $93.78 billion
- Total assets estimate $189.49 billion
Year
- Capital expenditure estimate $45.52 billion
Source: Bloomberg
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