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Spacex Vs. Tesla: Both Troubled, But Spacex Faces The Tougher Q4

The post SpaceX Vs. Tesla: Both Troubled, But SpaceX Faces The Tougher Q4 appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported third-quarter results a day apart in October. Each is spending at a historic pace. SpaceX had the flashier report and Tesla had the messier one. The two share a chip fab project, but SpaceX takes the weaker financial setup into Q4.

Grok and Starlink Carry SpaceX as Batteries Cap Tesla

SpaceX revenue reached $14.60 billion, ahead of the $13.02 billion consensus. Super Intelligence sales rose 830% to $7.60 billion on cloud contracts, Cursor, and Grok. That means a launch company now makes most of its revenue renting out computing power. Connectivity grew 69%. Space revenue rose just 6%, a weak showing for the segment that pays for Starship.

Tesla’s revenue was flat at $28.05 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.48 beat the $0.45 estimate. Operating income fell 55.79% as R&D rose to $2.76 billion. That is the cost of autonomy and Optimus. Demand held up. CFO Vaibhav Taneja said Tesla ended the quarter with “our highest backlog in four years, with deliveries constrained primarily by production.”

Business Driver	SpaceX	Tesla
Growth Engine	SI cloud and Grok	FSD and Megapacks
Weak Spot	Space segment, up 6%	Operating income, down 55.79%
Capex Signal	$18.37 billion in Q2 alone	About $20 billion for 2026

SpaceX’s Spending Bill Looks Far Heavier

Of that Q2 capex, $15.83 billion went to AI compute. Cursor added $1.2 billion of stock compensation in Q3, and another $23.4 billion is tied to future service. That stock compensation dilutes existing holders. A $25 billion bond sale and a pending 800 MHz spectrum purchase add to the pressure.

Tesla holds $45.4 billion in cash and produced $1.53 billion of free cash flow, though that figure fell 61.63%. It also arranged $30 billion of borrowing capacity and does not plan to use it this year.

Investors reacted: SpaceX shares fell 14.21% over the past month and trade 15.27% below their June 12 level. Tesla gained 8.97% over the same month. Tesla also marked down its SpaceX stake by $142 million.

A Starship Catch Attempt Sets the Q4 Tone

Musk said SpaceX will try to catch Starship and its booster next month, which means November. A clean catch would support the case for cheaper Starlink launches. A failure would hit a stock that is already falling. On the Tesla side, I will be watching the Dallas Cybercab launch and whether 24/7 Robotaxi operation starts by year-end.

Why Tesla Enters Year-End on Firmer Financial Footing

I see two troubled stocks with different problems. Tesla is dealing with shrinking margins and limited battery supply, and it has the cash to fix both. SpaceX’s pressure sits in how it pays for growth: huge compute spending, dilution from Cursor, and a Starship program that still loses money. SpaceX leadership said in September that Starlink has reached only 1.5 to 2% of its potential market, so the long-term room to grow is real. For Q4, though, Tesla stands apart as the company that funds its expansion from operating cash. A successful catch and slower capex would improve SpaceX’s position.

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