'the Big Short' Investor Danny Moses Unpacks How He's Using Prediction Markets To Navigate The Market

• Danny Moses of "The Big Short" fame uses prediction markets as a tool.
• The trader recently detailed how he uses Kalshi in a post on his Substack.
• He told Business Insider more how he uses the platform to inform his investment views.

When he spoke to Business Insider in December 2025, Wall Street trader Danny Moses of "The Big Short" said that he was fascinated by prediction markets. Now, he says he begun using them to inform his investing views.

Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have taken betting far beyond sports, allowing users to place wagers on everything from political events to tech layoffs to the weather. Moses wrote on his Substack these platforms have strong use cases for investing pros.

"Often, prediction markets serve as better indicators of sentiment and potential outcomes than traditional data sources," Moses said. "Several times a day, I peruse Kalshi to see if a new or trending contract sparks my interest or adds color to an ongoing investment thesis."

Moses isn't the only one to tout the benefits of prediction markets for investors. In February, the Federal Reserve published a study that suggested Kalshi could be used to accurately measure macroeconomic expectations.

But as Moses sees it, the same may hold true for stock investing. In his post, he recalled using the betting markets as a barometer for the likelihood of a major corporate event, in this case, the merger of SpaceX and Tesla, and how it was impacting Tesla stock.

"I spotted this event contract well before the rumors surfaced in traditional information channels, and I noticed TSLA's stock began to percolate just as the odds of a merger on Kalshi started to climb," he stated. "Other times, it might be a broader industry indicator, such as predicting 90-day auto delinquency rates."

Moses said that he uses Kalshi to monitor the flow of information, but also to place bets on events he believes are mispriced.

He said that he recently placed multiple bets on when Anthropic will begin trading after news broke of its IPO filing. After noting that Kalshi placed the odds that it would happen before October 1 at more than 60%, he opted to play the contract both for that event and the September 1 contract with a "yes" bet.

Moses told Business Insider that the categories he watches most closely are finance, commodities, economics, and sports. During his time using the platform, he has used Kalshi both as a means of generating standalone trades and as a tool for adding conviction to trades he's already put on.

"There have been countless times that I have seen an event contract trading on Kalshi that led me to research a specific company as a result," he said. "If you believed there was a macro catalyst for either the markets or a specific stock that might occur, you could express it in traditional trading (stocks/indices) or just trade the event contract.

As for what the future holds, Moses says that big institutions will start integrating prediction markets into trading strategies.

"It's only a matter of time before hedge funds start utilizing event contracts to express macroeconomic views or hedge current exposures."