A Macro Strategist Lays Out 3 'boring' Trades Set To Thrive As Speculation Fizzles In The 2nd Half Of 2026

• Mega-IPOs and speculative tech trades have dominated the market narrative lately.
• Yet, Janus Henderson says investors should focus on less flashy trades.
• The firm's head of macro views fixed income and non-US equities as more stable amid the speculative frenzy.

The market saw a historic initial public offering from SpaceX last week, and investors are gearing up for more mega-IPOs, but the top trades through the rest of this year might be a lot less flashy.

That's according to Richard Bernstein, global head of macro at Janus Henderson. In the firm's mid-year outlook, Bernstein shared some problems he sees in speculative trades that have dominated the market zeitgeist.

"Equity market segments such as dividends and non-U.S. stocks appear much more attractive than the consensus favorite, the so-called Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) stocks, or the broader Technology sector," he stated.

The three "boring" trades that Bernstein says his team views as attractive right now include:

• Dividend-paying stocks
• Non-US equities
• Short-term quality fixed income

Fixed-income investments are synonymous with stability, as they fluctuate neither in amount nor the timing investors get paid.

Non-US equities may not always be seen as stable, but Bernstein maintains that relative to US peers, they are a more strategic investment overall, and other finance pros have made similar arguments recently.

Bernstein noted that historically, investors often swing between high risk and extreme safety and it's pretty clear that the cycle is in the midst of a major risk-on push. He compared the latest speculative frenzy to the betting markets, warning investors to resist the urge to gamble, and to focus on fundamentals.

"At the mid-point of 2026, it seems clear that there is abnormal speculation in the current economy, because investors are equating the two," he said. "In our view, investors would be better served sticking to fundamentals and leaving chance to the betting community."

This illustrates why Bernstein is bullish on the three asset classes described as "boring" trades; all three are strongly tied to fundamentals, rather than speculative hype.

"Most investors are aware that higher returns generally involve taking more risk, and our research over the past 35 years strongly suggests that lower-quality investments, both equities and fixed income, provide higher longer-term returns," he added.

However, stability alone isn't the only reason Bernstein is bullish on these three trades he flags. He also noted they are less likely to be impacted by rising interest rates, which his team sees as a distinct possibility as the economy remains hot and inflation continues to accelerate.

"We continue to believe that such strong nominal growth will limit the Fed's flexibility, that they will gradually shift toward a tightening bias, and that they could actually raise rates."