Here's What Smart People Are Saying About Trump's Ceasefire Deal With Iran

Bishop, the head of global policy research at Signum Global Advisors, wrote in a research note sent to Business Insider that "as of now, our basecase remains that President Trump is likely biding his time before a larger offensive, rather than 'genuinely' agreeing to end the war on Iran's terms."

Bishop wrote that the advisory firm takes this stance because its members believe it is more likely that Trump was looking to de-escalate the conflict and calm markets rather than that he suddenly became "comfortable" with the idea of Iran having long-term veto power over the Strait of Hormuz.

"Whether this proves to have been the case will determine whether today marks the beginning of the end for the war, or a mere delay in further escalation ahead," Bishop wrote.

De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote in a post on Bluesky that, based on current markets, "gas prices could start reversing nationally in 48 hours or so- by a few cents every day."

Gas prices have skyrocketed in the last month as the war produced the largest supply shock to the global oil market in history.

"Diesel prices may lag slightly- but where things stand now, diesel is NO longer likely to reach a record," De Haan wrote. "National average gasoline could fall below $4 in ~1-2 weeks, diesel >$5 in 6-8 weeks."

"Coming days will see volatility as the US/Iran and other parties negotiate," De Haan wrote in a second post. "Iran has signaled safe passage through the Strait for two weeks. Right now: oil prices dropping significantly, and that could lead gas price increases to fade over the next 48 hours before drops then begin."

Joe Kent, the former director of the United States National Counterterrorism Center who resigned from his post in March because he opposes the war in Iran, spoke in a video on X on Tuesday night. He said that in order for the ceasefire to be effective, it is "absolutely critical" that the US remove its offensive military support from Israel to prevent the nation from continuing to strike Iran and violate the terms of the deal.

Kent said the US is "on the cusp" of being able to fix the energy supply crisis caused by the war. But he said it's crucial to keep in mind that Israel's strategic objective of toppling the Iranian government "works against" the US government's attempts to broker peace.

"We have to understand that there is no military solution to the conflict right now," Kent said.

So far, he said, the military action the US has taken has destabilized the region, strengthened the Iranian government, and threatened energy.

While market participants may welcome ships resuming transit through the Strait of Hormuz, what happens next will be key.

An important question is "which ships will be going back IN to take fresh cargoes back out," June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, wrote in a post on X.

A two-week ceasefire is likely too short to establish a sustained rebound in inbound traffic, she added.

Despite gyrations in crude futures, the divergence between paper and physical oil prices is widening.

The benchmark Dated Brent physical oil price assessed by S&P Global has surged to its highest level since 2008, signaling tight supply in the real-world market.

"Watch the physical," Goh wrote.

Michael Wan, a senior currency analyst at MUFG, cautioned that securing a durable deal could be difficult given that Iran's demands "seem hard for different parties, including Israel and the Gulf states, to accept."

"As such, we think any agreement on paper will likely be an extremely unstable equilibrium, and we think further meaningful bouts of volatility are more likely than not moving forward," Wan wrote in a Wednesday note.

Key questions also remain over what concessions Iran might offer in return. Even in the event of a breakthrough, energy markets may not stabilize immediately.

If the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen right away, it would take time for energy flows to normalize due to earlier production shutdowns and the slow restart of oil and gas infrastructure, Wan said.

Shipping constraints and risk aversion among insurers are also likely to delay a full recovery.

A temporary ceasefire may offer some short-term relief to energy markets, but airlines are still facing higher fuel costs.

"The reality of it is with an increase like that, there's no way the airlines can absorb it," Willie Walsh, the director general of the International Air Transport Association, told CNBC.

Carriers may raise fares or cut capacity to cope with the pressure, he said.

The situation is particularly concerning for Asia, as about 80% of the region's jet fuel supply comes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Still, "demand for flying remains very strong," he said.

Ilan Goldenberg, director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security and a former senior Middle East advisor at the White House's National Security Council in 2024, said he was "thankful" for the ceasefire and that it was "the right move."

But he said that, if it holds, the war would still end as a "strategic disaster."

Goldenberg shared a "scorecard" of the conflict in an X post on Wednesday, saying Iran retains key advantages, including highly enriched uranium, intact proxy networks in the region, and a missile and drone arsenal that has proven resilient under US and Israeli pressure.

He added that the war has already caused "major damage" to the global economy, strained US alliances in the Gulf and Europe, and could leave Israel more isolated.

"Region: as unstable as ever," Goldenberg wrote, adding the conflict may ultimately require a greater US commitment and leave Washington less prepared for other global challenges.

Stephen Dover, chief market strategist and head of the Franklin Templeton Institute, said markets are interpreting the ceasefire primarily as a de-escalation of a major supply shock, with oil prices falling and equities rising in response.

But he cautioned that the move reflects the unwinding of a "war premium," rather than confidence that the conflict is resolved.

"The message is 'less bad,' not 'problem solved,'" Dover wrote in a LinkedIn post on Wednesday, adding the ceasefire is temporary and tied to conditions like the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

While he said lower energy prices could ease inflation pressures, he said damage to energy infrastructure and ongoing risks to shipping mean supply disruptions may persist.

That "means that oil, natural gas and fertilizer prices probably won't fall quickly back to pre-war levels," he added.

Andreas Krieg, a Gulf specialist at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at King's College London, said that the deal would help Iran rebuild its military capabilities within a year if it evolves into a longer-term agreement.

"It is the worst strategic defeat for the US since Vietnam and possibly the worst strategic defeat for Israel ever," he wrote in an X post on Wednesday.

He also said that a more belligerent and less pragmatic Iranian leadership could emerge, adding that shipping will be Iran's "new strategic lever" in its toolbox.

"The Axis of Resistance will likely be rebuilt with the main target Israel, which will be stuck in a perpetual war of mowing lawns," he wrote.