July Fed Meeting: Live Updates And Commentary

The July Fed meeting kicks off this Tuesday, July 28, and concludes on Wednesday, July 29, with the central bank's latest policy decision.

Oil prices have been volatile recently amid on-again, off-again fighting between the U.S. and Iran. But while crude futures are lower to start Fed week, they're up roughly 20% for July, which is likely to keep headline inflation readings hot in the near term.

This has Wall Street tuned into what Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decide for interest rates this time around.

The post-meeting press conference will be a lively one, too, as Warsh gives updates on the changes he's making at the central bank.

The Kiplinger team is reporting live on the July Fed meeting, bringing you the news and expert analysis of what it could mean for the economy and your money. Scroll for the latest updates.

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The stock market trades mixed to start Fed week

Stocks are mixed at midday Monday as market participants weigh falling oil prices and a continued sell-off in semiconductor stocks.

At last check, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.3% at 52,099, boosted by strength in mega caps Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL).

But the broader S&P 500 is down 0.04% at 7,408 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is off 0.2% at 24,924, with heavy losses for Micron Technology (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK) dragging on the indexes.

Over in the bond market, the yield on the 2-year Treasury yield is off 1.5 basis points at 4.316% and the 10-year Treasury yield is 3.2 basis points lower at 4.647%, though both remain near their highest points since early 2025.

- Karee Venema

Fed meeting schedule for 2026

The next Fed meeting, which runs from July 28 through July 29, marks the fifth gathering of 2026.

"The committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks," writes Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows in his feature, "When Is the Next Fed Meeting?".

The Federal Open Market Committee "is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary," Burrows adds, noting that "the convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981."

Fed meetings last two days and wrap up with the release of a policy decision at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time. This is typically followed by the Fed chair's press conference at 2:30 pm, though this could change under Warsh's leadership.

Here is the full remaining Fed meeting schedule for 2026:

• July 28 to 29
• September 15 to 16
• October 27 to 28
• December 8 to 9

- Karee Venema

Oil prices are lower Monday as U.S. and Iran pause fighting

Oil prices are starting Fed week on a negative note, with front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures down 6.5% at $83.50 per barrel.

This comes after a Reuters report indicated that Iran has agreed to pause strikes in the region as long as Washington agrees to do the same.

But "the situation remains far from resolved," says Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. "Shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz and continued disruption in the Red Sea mean energy markets remain vulnerable to fresh headlines, and any setback in negotiations could quickly send crude prices higher once again."

- Karee Venema

Who is Kevin Warsh?

The July Fed meeting will mark Kevin Warsh's second as head of the Federal Reserve. But who is Kevin Warsh?

Warsh previously served on the Federal Reserve Board from February 2006 through March 2011. He was Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's right-hand man during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and was his primary liaison to Wall Street, which earned him credibility he still retains.

Before his time at the Federal Reserve, Warsh was special assistant to the president for economic policy and executive secretary of the White House National Economic Council from 2002 through 2006, during the George W. Bush administration. From 1995 to 2002, Warsh worked for Morgan Stanley.

Leading up to his May 2026 confirmation as Fed chair, Warsh was a visiting fellow in economics at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, a lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and a member of the Panel of Economic Advisers of the Congressional Budget Office.

He is widely viewed as a "hawk" on monetary policy who generally favors higher interest rates rather than the risk of inflation.

At the same time, Warsh, who was said to be a candidate for Treasury secretary before Trump picked Scott Bessent, was on the short list because he has a great relationship with the president.

Warsh said in mid-2025 that "the independent operations in the conduct of monetary policy is essential," adding "that doesn't mean the Fed is independent in everything else it does."

Though he consistently took the hawkish line on inflation during his time inside the central bank, Warsh has more recently advocated for lower interest rates.

Read more: The New Fed Chair Was Announced: What You Need to Know

- David Dittman

The July Fed meeting is a "live" one

With inflation risks elevated amid geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, Wall Street isn't sure what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates this time around.

The odds of a rate hike have been climbing recently. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are now pricing in a 36% chance of a quarter-percentage-point increase to the federal funds rate on Wednesday — up from 16% one week ago.

And given Chair Warsh's "clear hawkish bias," this makes the July Fed meeting a "live" one, says Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

In addition to the "will they or won't they" narrative on interest rates, markets are also contending with the additional "challenge of working out the potential path forward for policy from here, given [Warsh's] antipathy towards forward guidance," Rodda adds.

- Karee Venema