Average Senior Living Occupancy Nears 90% As Low Development Levels Signal Scarcity Ahead

Senior living occupancy continued to trend upward in the first quarter of 2026, but the slow rate of new community openings is bad news for the availability of units in the future.

That’s according to the latest occupancy report from the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing and Care (NIC). In the first quarter of 2026, average senior living occupancy climbed 40 basis points to 89.5%, representing a gain compared to the 89.1% occupancy rate the industry carried in the fourth quarter of 2025. 

NIC MAP data shows the industry is on track to surpass 90% occupancy before the end of the year. That’s good news for senior living operators with communities still in lease-up, but bad news for future residents’ ability to find a desired place to live in some markets, according to Lisa McCracken, NIC’s head of research and analytics

“We know that there is likely a scarcity factor at play for the consumer in some submarkets. This would be the case for the more desirable units and communities,” McCracken told Senior Housing News.

NIC MAP data showed the number of occupied units grew by around 3,000 in the first quarter of 2026 to a total of 637,000. The number of new units under construction reached the lowest amount on record since 2012, with year-over-year inventory growth falling to 0.4%.

“We aren’t yet seeing new development pick up, and the bottleneck is largely on the capital side, not from lack of demand,” McCracken said in the release. “With elevated costs for labor and materials, and property valuation dynamics, many groups simply aren’t ready to pull the trigger on projects just yet. As a result, investors favor acquiring existing properties over new construction, which puts pressure on the availability of senior housing for the consumer.”

Average occupancy for independent living units reached 91% in the first quarter of 2026, and assisted living reached an average of 87.9%. Both independent living and assisted living asking rents continue to be in a 4% to 5% range of year-over-year growth, according to NIC MAP data.

Ten of the 31 primary markets NIC MAP tracks exceeded 90% occupancy on average in the first quarter. That is higher than the seven markets that reported the same in the fourth quarter of 2025. Average occupancy in those markets was highest in Boston (93.6%), Baltimore (91.8%) and San Francisco (91.6%) and while it was the lowest in Atlanta (86%), Miami (86.2%) and Las Vegas (87%).

“Given the significant tailwinds in our sector right now, if you have a community that is struggling, you need to do some quick diagnostics as to why,” McCracken said. “This is the time that we have been waiting for with significant demographic growth, and in a period with limited new competition coming onto the market, there is the opportunity to perform very well.”

Average active adult occupancy dipped by 70 basis points in the time frame, going to 91.2% in the first quarter of 2026. Active adult is a lifestyle choice and slower home sales in that period of time may have put a dent in the sector’s occupancy, according to Caroline Clapp, NIC’s senior principal.

Of the 15 largest active adult rental markets, Los Angeles, Virginia Beach and San Diego had the highest occupancy rates in the first quarter at 97.2%, 96.2% and 95.1% respectively, while Phoenix, Austin and Kansas City had the lowest at 85.1%, 85.2% and 89.6%, though the release notes Sun Belt markets have seen increases in supply, contributing to lower occupancy rates.

NIC MAP data shows that active adult communities added 464 units across 874 rental properties in the first quarter of this year.

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