Hail Risk To Homes Is On Par On With Major Hurricane Threats

More than 43.5 million U.S. properties are at moderate or greater risk from hail damage, representing about $17.84 trillion in reconstruction cost value, according to Cotality’s 2026 Severe Convective Storm Risk Report released Tuesday.

The report finds that hailstorms are emerging as one of the most financially destructive natural hazards for the housing market, with potential losses now comparable to a Category 4 hurricane.

Cotality’s modeling shows that across a range of severe convective storm (SCS) scenarios — from more frequent 1-in-50-year events to rarer 1-in-500-year events — hail is the primary driver of insured losses.

In an extreme 1-in-500-year SCS event, hail alone could generate roughly 80% of an estimated $71 billion in insured losses from all SCS perils, including tornadoes, straight-line winds and hail. That equates to about $58 billion in hail-driven losses.

Even less extreme hailstorms can be financially significant. A severe hail event expected to occur once every few decades could produce nearly $30 billion in insured losses, on par with a major hurricane that makes landfall, the report found.

“Hail doesn’t command the same headlines as hurricanes, floods or wildfires, but the data shows it has become one of the most financially destructive natural hazards facing the property market,” said Jon Schneyer, Cotality’s director of research and content.

“Once considered ‘secondary’ with relatively modest losses, this ‘death-by-a-thousand-papercuts’ peril is now one of the biggest drivers of property insurance claims. That shift is placing growing pressure on insurers and recovery teams in what has become a high-stakes relay to restore damaged communities.”

In 2025, the U.S. recorded 142 days with damaging hail, up from 135 days in 2024 and well above the 20-year average of 122 days, according to the report. During these events, hailstones 2 inches in diameter or larger struck more than 600,000 homes, representing about $177 billion in reconstruction cost value.

Cotality attributes the growing financial impact of hail to both meteorological and exposure trends. As development and housing growth push more high-value properties into storm-prone regions, the asset base at risk from SCS events continues to climb.

For housing professionals, that combination translates into mounting repair costs, more frequent roof and exterior claims, higher deductibles, and potential coverage gaps as insurers reprice or restrict policies in hail-prone markets.

Texas Triangle stands out as a hail hotspot

Texas had the most hail-impacted homes in 2025. More than 235,000 homes in the state experienced damaging hail, the report said, far exceeding the number in second-tier states.

Risk is especially concentrated in the so-called Texas Triangle — the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin and San Antonio metro areas. Together, these markets account for more than $2.2 trillion in reconstruction cost value tied to moderate or greater hail risk.

Wyoming also ranked highly with more than 41,000 homes impacted by damaging hail in 2025, followed by Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Kansas. These concentrations matter for lenders, servicers and investors that manage portfolios in the central U.S., where repetitive roof and exterior damage can accelerate reserve needs and capital expenditures.

Tornado and wind risk remains widespread

Hail is only one component of the broader SCS threat. Cotality estimates that more than 76 million U.S. homes face moderate or greater tornado risk, representing more than $27 trillion in reconstruction cost value.

Another 64 million homes are exposed to damaging straight-line winds of 65 mph or stronger, with more than $23 trillion in reconstruction cost value at risk.

These overlapping hazards underscore that much of the U.S. housing stock is exposed to multiple forms of convective storm risk. For insurers and reinsurers, as well as mortgage risk managers and institutional owners, that increases the importance of property-level data on roof age, materials and maintenance history in addition to location-based hazard scores.

Schneyer said that as developers add more, larger and more expensive properties in high-risk areas, storm losses are growing in both scale and complexity.

“For insurers and reinsurers, accurately capturing not just the volatility but also the aggregated magnitude of these events is critical,” he said. “When underwriters are able to accurately price knowing the unique vulnerabilities of each individual property and modelers can map extreme risks with confidence, capital and resources are secured before a storm strikes.”

This article was generated using HousingWire Automation and reviewed by a HousingWire editor before publication. The system helps convert company announcements and industry data into HousingWire-style news coverage.