Trump To Announce New Fed Chair Friday, Sending The 10-year Yield Higher

President Donald Trump announced on Thursday evening that he will name his choice for the next Federal Reserve chair on Friday morning. At publication time, prediction sites Polymarket and Kalshi had Kevin Warsh as the frontrunner, putting his odds of being chosen at more than 85%, which sent the 10-year yield higher.

CNBC reported that an administration source told the outlet that Warsh visited the White House on Thursday and Bloomberg cited anonymous sources who said Warsh was the pick. However, White House spokesman Kush Desai told CNBC that “President Trump will announce his pick for the Federal Reserve at the appropriate time. Any reporting on the Federal Reserve chairman nomination process until then is a waste of everyone’s time.”

HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami noted the market reaction to the Warsh speculation. “The rumor of Kevin Warsh being the next Fed Chairman sent bond yields correctly higher — he isn’t the right person for the job. But if the bond market, which has been calm, acts up by going higher over the next few weeks, I expect Warsh to withdraw himself from this process. The president doesn’t have a lot of time to get his agenda done so if the bond market goes against this choice, I expect Warsh to resign. On the other hand, if it acts as it has over the last several months, Warsh will be the next Fed chairman.”

The president told reporters about the announcement at the premiere for “Melania,” the film about first lady Melania Trump. Friday’s announcement will end a months-long selection process that has fueled discussion about the future direction of the country’s central bank.

The Fed chair candidates

Trump has considered four final candidates to lead the Federal Reserve: National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller, former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been overseeing the search since the summer and helped narrow a broader list of candidates. Trump had said earlier he would announce his choice next week but later suggested the timeline had moved up.

The nominee would first be appointed as a Fed governor. The incoming governor will begin a 14-year term Feb. 1, succeeding Stephen Miran, who filled the seat after Adriana Kugler’s resignation in August 2025.

The nominee could face a tough Senate confirmation after the Justice Department issued grand jury subpoenas as part of a probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, sparking bipartisan criticism. Senators Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) accused President Trump of using the investigation to pressure Powell to resign and assert political control over the central bank.

Tillis, a Republican member of the Senate Banking Committee, has pledged to block any Fed nominees until the Justice Department completes its probe. Powell’s term as chair expires in May, but he could remain on the Fed board through 2028.

For awhile Hassett was the frontrunner for the role, but Trump then said he prefers Hassett to stay in his role at the National Economic Council. Hassett has also faced criticism after defending the DOJ probe as routine oversight, with economists questioning his remarks as “inappropriate” for a prospective central bank leader.

Trump’s announcement would mark a new phase in his long-running clash with the Fed over rate policy. The president and his allies have repeatedly pressed Powell to cut borrowing costs more aggressively and had even called for Powell’s resignation.

The Fed on Wednesday left rates unchanged after three consecutive cuts late last year.