Weekly Pending Home Sales Back To Year-over-year Growth As We Head Into Spring

Weekly pending home sales, which had shown year-over-year growth up until the late-January snowstorm, got back on track with year-over-year growth again last week. One thing to remember about our weekly pending sales data: it takes about 30-60 days to be reflected in the existing home sales data, so not only did the snowstorm delay people from listing their homes and looking at other homes, but some closings were impacted as well. In time, though, it all works itself out.

The snowstorm predicted to hit the East Coast starting on Sunday is not expected to have the same impact as the January storm, which covered a large portion of the country for multiple days.

For now, we can look forward with our weekly Housing Market Tracker reports, as it appears all the negative snow data has left the building. Last week we also saw new listings data grow year over year, which is exactly what you want to see for the spring season of 2026.

Weekly pending sales

Pending home sales data provides a week-to-week perspective, though results can be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations, such as the giant winter storm in January. We were showing year-over-year growth to start the year and that snowstorm did slow things down.

Two weeks ago, we had a nice week-to-week data print. This week, we are back to year-over-year growth again too. Over the past few years, our weekly pending home sales data tends to be mostly positive with mortgage rates near 6%. 

Weekly pending sales last week over the last two years:

• 2026: 59,283
• 2025: 56,693 

Mortgage purchase application data

Purchase application data is a forward-looking data line: the growth here leads sales roughly 30-90 days out, and we saw 8% year-over-year growth in this data line last week.

However, what I really value is at least 12-14 weeks of positive weekly growth. If you can get this in addition to year-over-year growth, we have something legit for sure. For 2026, we have had every week show positive year-over-year growth.

As you can see in the chart below, we do have some seasonal flow with the weekly data.

Here’s 2026 so far:

• 2 positive week-over-week results
• 3 negative week-to-week prints
• 1 flat week-to-week print
• 3 weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth
• 6 weeks of positive year over year growth

10-year yield and mortgage rates

In the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the following ranges:

• Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75%
• The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%

Last week we had a lot of economic data and crazy headlines, but not much movement in the 10-year yield or mortgage rates. 

After Friday’s big Supreme Court decision on tariffs, President Trump announced a plan to raise global tariffs to 15% unilaterally, but not too much happened with mortgage rates or the 10-year yield, even with the Supreme Court news, lower GDP numbers and inflation running at 3% year over year.

Rates ended the week lower at 6.04%, according to Mortgage News Daily, and mortgage rate lock data from Polly shows a weekend rate of 6.26%.

Mortgage spreads

Mortgage spreads remain a positive story for housing in 2026, reducing mortgage-rate volatility, and are close to normal levels.

Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spreads closed at 1.94%.

If spreads matched the 2023 peak levels, mortgage rates would be 1.20 percentage points higher, at 7.21%. With spreads returning to normal, mortgage pricing can remain lower for longer than in previous years. Realistically, we only have 20-34 basis points of improvement left in the spreads.

Weekly housing inventory data

Housing inventory grew this week as we are close to the traditional rise we see each year with the spring selling season. The growth rate of inventory has cooled since rates fell in June of 2025, but inventory remains at multiyear highs, keeping pricing in check.

We have gone from 33% year-over-year growth to 9.38% last week.

• Weekly inventory change: (Feb. 13-Feb. 20): Inventory rose from 690,547 to 700,259
• Same week last year: (Feb. 14-Feb. 21): Inventory rose from 637,984 to 640,221

New listings data

New listings data, just like weekly pending home sales, are back to year-over-year growth. Since most home sellers are also buyers, this is a positive sign that both are back to year-over-year growth.

I am hoping for the new listings data to range between 80,000 and 100,000 per week during the seasonal peak periods, as it did from 2013-2019. For context, during the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years.

Here is last week’s new listings data for the past two years:

• 2026: 60,428
• 2025: 53,861

Price-cut percentage

Typically, about one-third of homes undergo price reductions before they sell, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage rates and inventory rise together, the percentage of price cuts increases.

However, rates are near multiyear lows, so after a very long time, we are now seeing negative year-over-year price-cut percentage data. This shouldn’t be surprising given that demand has picked up slightly and inventory growth has slowed. 

The price-cut percentage last week is now 1% lower than this time last year.

The price-cut percentage for last week:

• 2026: 31.90%
• 2025: 33%

The week ahead: Fed speeches, bond auctions and possible tariff market response

We have some significant economic data coming up this week, but we also have some interesting storylines, with big bond auctions and a question on how the market will respond to Trump’s big tariff news over the weekend.

We have some Fed speeches and the PPI inflation report this week, along with the home price index reports. Jobless claims data comes out every Thursday, and the data still looks good here.

The snow impact initially sent jobless claims higher, but that data line has fallen recently as the snow impact melts out of the data pool. This is shaping up to be yet another very interesting week for the housing market!