Sixty Days From The Primary

The 2026 New Mexico primary has stepped back in time. In many ways, the state has effectively insulated itself from the national chaos by having our own crises that need sorting out.

I’ve written at least a dozen columns about the disaster at the New Mexico Children, Youth and Families Department. It’s a platform element for every gubernatorial candidate, and one they should be called out on regularly. CYFD is a catastrophe that has been years in the making, and our next governor must address it aggressively on Jan. 2, 2027.

Health care providers in New Mexico are not going to return to pre-pandemic levels overnight because the Legislature passed malpractice reform and authorized joining two interstate licensure compacts. More innovation and incentives are needed, quickly, to prevent further collapse of our health care networks.

Then there are our good old standbys of education, crime and the economy. New Mexico ranks 48th in the nation for high school graduation rates. We rank second in the nation for overall crime per capita, first for property crime. New Mexico has the second-highest percentage of residents living in poverty in the nation.

I have written dozens of columns about this. I am running out of printable adjectives.

If my writing has become repetitive, let me offer a new word: hope. I am hopeful this election cycle. Here’s why.

For the first time since 2016, national issues for the most part are not invading the New Mexico elections. Candidates are talking about what matters to New Mexicans. And New Mexicans need to hold them accountable.

Yeah, I know. Sam Bregman pulled ICE into his splashy video and went on CNN about prosecuting ICE, but I think that was bait for the GOP primary as much as anything. And I am proud of the GOP gubernatorial candidates for not rising to that bait.

During the last two governor’s races, the Republican field wound up going hard MAGA in the primary on national-issue litmus tests. This proved disastrous in the general election, as the winner struggled to meet their Democratic opponent in the center.

I’m also hopeful because candidates are going to have to say true things about the economy. West Texas crude is around $95 a barrel as of this writing because of Operation Epic Fury, and global oil and gas markets will be disrupted for months to come. As the No. 2 oil producer in the nation, this should mean good short-term revenues for New Mexico. We all know this, and so a hard line against fossil fuels while we have to fund free college and child care is going to be a non-starter. Candidates need to take this reality onboard.

This year, we have to challenge our candidates. We know we need to support our oil and gas industry. We also know the Permian will not last forever, and we have lagged behind our neighbors in attracting clean energy investment. We also know we are sitting on tremendous geothermal and mineral potential. What is each candidate’s plan for sustaining New Mexico’s position as an energy leader?

I’m even hopeful despite the chaos in the state GOP. The current chair is remaining in office in flagrant violation of the RPNM bylaws (she herself is a candidate for office in a contested primary, thus preventing any semblance of neutrality in a partisan race and automatically vacating her seat as chair). The response from the chair is that the national committeeman and “a parliamentarian” say she can stay, so she’s staying.

Here’s the thing: Smart Republican candidates have been getting themselves elected without help from RPNM for a while now. So the controversy and potential implosion is a nuisance, although the issue is signaling an interesting rift.

There is supposed to be a state central committee meeting April 18 to address the issue of the chair’s legitimacy, and a splinter group within the central committee has signed a pledge (manifesto?) stating they will not participate. The boycotters are primarily from Doña Ana County, the chair’s home county of Otero County, the oil-and-gas-producing counties and the northeastern rural counties. Nearly 100 SCC members have signed on to the boycott. The SCC has more than 500 members. It’s unclear whether enough members will show up to take action.

The main question in the primaries, unsurprisingly, will be money. The state supreme court ruled at the end of March that Duke Rodriguez, a part-time resident of Arizona, is eligible to be on the Republican ballot for governor. He has pledged to spend $2 million of his own money on his campaign. His GOP opponents, Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull and business owner Doug Turner, are looking to raise $500,000. Hull has the visibility among Republicans to win a primary; Turner is the favorite of the party establishment; Rodriguez has the pockets to get through the general election.

Former Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland lacks the campaign charisma of Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, but in most other ways appears to be the heiress apparent and has the war chest to show for it. She is picking up many critical endorsements, the most recent being the state speaker of the House, Javier Martinez, along with the progressive base. Her opponent, Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, is appealing to the center for the general election with his tough-on-crime posture, and I am told picking up the support of many of the late Gov. Bill Richardson’s inner circle.

Independents will be key this primary, voting for the first time without having to join a major party. Conservative independents in rural areas are predictably going to opt for a Republican ballot. Independents under 35 are trend more left-wing and will impact the Democratic primary more significantly. In general, independents are more moderate than those registered with a major party, and tend to select candidates with more centrist views.

This is another reason I am hopeful. This is the most interesting election for quite some timethe polarization is loosening. Were you born in 2008 or earlier? Make sure you’re registered to vote! This is going to be a good ride, despite some hiccups.

Merritt Hamilton Allen is a PR executive and former Navy officer. A Republican for 36 years, she became an independent upon reading the 2024 Republican platform. She lives amicably with her Democratic husband north of I-40 where they run one head of dog, and one of cat. She can be reached at news.ind. merritt@gmail.com.

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