‘big Sigh Of Relief’: Republicans Finally Get Some Good News

Republicans are breathing a little easier this weekend, cautiously optimistic that President Donald Trump has found an off-ramp to end the war in Iran.

With oil dropping below $90 a barrel, the stock market making new all-time highs, and gas down 8 cents a gallon this week, some feel the slightest bit of wind at their back for the first time since the war began in late February.

“Everyone knows the historical trends. But at least lower gas prices, putting the war actively behind us, can restore some of the momentum from post-State of the Union,” said Matt Gorman, a GOP communications strategist at Targeted Victory. “Republicans are dying for the ability to get back on offense.”

While it may seem early to pop the champagne —Iran, for example, denied that it agreed to move its enriched uranium to the U.S. as Trump claimed, and threatened to close the straitif the U.S. blockade continued — the solace is in proportion to just how miserable things had looked only a few days ago. The trick now, Republicans say, is keeping the distractions to a minimum — no small task when the leader of the party is one social media post away from a new controversy. Success also rests on the administration’s theory of a quick economic rebound proving accurate — and voters feeling the relief.

“Short term, certainly relieved, but it’s the mini political hand grenades that continue to be challenging,” said one GOP donor, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Rather than be able [to] solely focus on tax refunds this week, members got questions about the pope and the ballroom.”

The frayed nerves underscore just how deleterious the last few weeks have been for the GOP’s supporters and strategists. The war with Iran was never popular, fractured the MAGA base and raised questions about the president’s position on a core movement principle. Polls show the House is likely lost and the Senate could be in play. And the spike in gas prices could negate one of the president’s signature achievements — a massive tax cut that was supposed to line voters’ pockets and stimulate the economy. Along the way, a feud with the pope, a setback in the war and Viktor Orbán’s loss in Hungary gave the impression of an administration at the mercy of events rather than in control of them.

“The Iran issue remains a contributing factor to a broader set of fundamental concerns that voters have about the economy and global stability,” said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist and partner at Penta, a Washington-based consulting firm. “It's good that tensions are easing. The main consideration though, in the context of 2026 midterms, is how durable today's posture is.”

The permanence of the duel ceasefires — in Iran and Lebanon — remains to be seen but Tehran’s decision to allow passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with European leaders’ pledge to help secure it gives hope to the Republicans who believe their fate is tied to the price at the pump.

"Big sigh of relief from congressional Republicans today,” said former Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a Republican from Florida. “It seems they will be able to put the Iran conflict in the rear view mirror; still with plenty of time to refocus the electorate on tax relief and other issues. It will be a steep uphill climb, but now they’ll have a chance."

The good news on Friday proved the president’s argument that economic disruptions from the war would be brief, said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers.

“Time and time again, the ‘panicans’ are proven wrong by President Trump who consistently delivers on his promises to the American people. The President remains laser focused on keeping the American people safe, lowering costs for working families, and making our country greater than ever before,” Rogers said. “The President was always clear that these were short-term, temporary disruptions that would be resolved through the unprecedented successes of Operation Epic Fury and subsequent ongoing peace talks.”

Trump, too, was in a celebratory mood. On Friday in Arizona, the second and last stop on a southwest tour through battleground states to promote his tax cuts, Trump told reporters it was a “big day.”

“We’ll see how it all turns out but it should be good, had some very good discussions,” Trump said. “The talks are going on, it will go on over the weekend and a lot of good things are happening.”

Trump, speaking at a Turning Point USA event, appeared to be in an upbeat mood, touting a lower trade deficit, the end of DEI, and tax cuts among other items he believes are highlights of the second term, and he explicitly tied those successes to the need to win the midterms.

"You must go out and vote Republican, we need that," Trump said, before basking in the day's good news. "Did you see oil is down today? Did you see prices are down today?"

Still, not everyone shared Trump’s enthusiasm, with some Republicans wary that a Trump-sized shoe was about to drop.

“I would say I’m cautiously optimistic, not a full-blown believer that this will hold,” said a GOP operative working in a swing state.

And for all the elation, some Republicans, especially those less enthralled with Trump’s leadership, still see the spate of good news as doing little to stop the blue wave heading toward them.

"An end to the war with Iran that results in Iran giving up its highly enriched uranium and shutting down its military nuclear program would increase the chances of Republicans only losing the House by a 15-20 vote margin,” deadpanned former Rep. Ken Buck, a Colorado Republican.