‘get In Line:’ Donors Strike New Tone About Helping Paxton

For months, Republican donors insisted they didn’t want to bankroll Ken Paxton’s Texas Senate race after President Donald Trump endorsed him over long-time incumbent John Cornyn.

To them, that decision made bailing out Paxton the president’s responsibility.

But polls have deteriorated in the weeks ahead of the midterm election so much so that many of these same donors are dropping their objections. The only thing that matters now, they say, is keeping the Senate – by whatever means necessary.

The change underscores the perilous state of the GOP, which finds itself confronting a darkening map where “the fires are everywhere” and which possibly portends the loss of multiple Senate races in states Trump won by double digits two years ago.

“The Senate’s the firewall of freedom. As donors sort of handicap what is the most important factor for protecting policy priorities, it’s the Senate,” said Jason Thielman, former executive director of the NRSC and partner at political consulting firm S2R. “So you lick your wounds if your guy doesn’t win and get in line.”

MAGA Inc. and its affiliates are expected to spend almost $45 million on boosting Paxton, the state’s attorney general, via direct mail, TV and digital advertising in Texas through Oct. 12.

But, with polls consistently showing Paxton trailing Democrat James Talarico, the Senate Leadership Fund, which is the GOP’s top Senate super PAC, poured another $60 million into Texas to bring its spending in the Lone Star state to $131 million.

“In this difficult environment, only money can save some Republicans. Whatever bullets they have left they should use. Otherwise they might get blamed for any razor-thin defeats where more resources could have been the difference,” said former Florida Rep. Carlos Curbelo.

SLF officials insist the Texas blitz isn't draining resources from other battlegrounds, claiming the entire nine-figure spend was raised through a dedicated state effort

“We’re grateful for our enthusiastic donors who’ve stepped up and funded Texas PAC, SLF’s dedicated effort to defeat Far-Left lunatic James Talarico,” said SLF executive director Alex Latcham said in a text. “Their generosity ensured that we did not have to divert any resources from other key races and has allowed SLF to run effective campaigns across the map to defend the Senate majority.”

The broader map is too tough to second guess decisions, according to eight donors, fundraisers, strategists and operatives, some of whom were granted anonymity to speak candidly on the state of the race.

“We are where we are. Do whatever necessary to hold the Senate,” said a GOP fundraiser.

A GOP donor said it’s also essential at this point to spend in other ruby-red states like Alaska, Kansas, which, like Texas, Trump won by double digits.

“Saving the Senate majority is the top priority if Trump wants to be able to confirm any judges or cabinet officials over the next two years,” the person said in an e-mail. “Focus on shoring up AK, KS, ME, OH, IA and SC and play some offense in Michigan and New Hampshire if for no other reason than to make Democrats spend in those states.”

Republicans are in triage mode, shifting money away from races they consider tougher to win. SLF is pausing its future spending in North Carolina and instead began spending to defend South Carolina, another state Trump won by double digits, and stepped up its advertising in Kansas.

Six GOP-held Senate seats, including in Texas and Kansas, are considered a toss-up by the nonpartisan handicapper Cook Political Report. The worrisome map for Republicans means any issues they have with candidates has to be set aside – and money spent from whatever pot that has it ready to deploy.

“Personal grievances or preferences, that’s what primaries are for and that time has passed. This is about, are there considerations for making sure we have 51 senators and that’s the whole ball game,” said Mark Bednar, GOP strategist and former communications director to former Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. “If that means people have to hold their nose from a money perspective and reinforce states that wouldn’t be their first choice, we’re past that point.”

Inside the White House, senior officials make no distinction between different GOP pools of money as they look to shore up candidates across the country. MAGA Inc. and SFL cash are “one big giant bucket of money,” a senior White House official said.

“That would be my message to any of the detractors: You know it's a team sport, and everyone needs to swim in the same direction, and that means whether it's MAGA, SLF, or whichever outside group, it's about spending enough money to get our candidates across the finish line,” the person said.

A former Trump campaign official said that while donors “may have their own relationships or preferences in terms of” where their money gets spent, outside groups are “working together to make their message and ad buys right.”

GOP donors have resigned themselves to the all-hands-on-deck approach, despite Trump pledging to pour “probably $400, $500 million” into the midterms from his MAGA Inc. PAC in September.

“I think at this point they're like, let's see what it takes,” said a former Trump fundraiser. “They really don't see Trump stepping up helping Ken Paxton that much, and so they can't let an opportunity just disappear.”

Still, MAGA Inc. has disclosed, as of last month, only spending a fraction of its over $400 million in the war chest on the midterm election, raising questions over why the president wants to hold onto the money.

A GOP lobbyist who has given to multiple Republican Senate campaigns called money “indeed fungible.”

“But the tests will be whether MAGA Inc. dollars (a) actually get spent and (b) go to efforts that actually help candidates on the ballot vs promoting the president himself,” the person added.

Megan Messerly contributed to this report.