‘no Evidence It’s Real’: Officials See Few Signs Trump’s Nato Rhetoric Is Turning Into Action

The Iran war is threatening to unravel the NATO alliance — again.

But for all of President Donald Trump’s threats and anger over allies’ refusal to assist with the U.S. military campaign, his rhetoric has yet to be matched by any signs of concrete action.

NATO diplomats, congressional aides and defense officials say the administration has not had the kinds of discussions needed to leave the nearly eight decade alliance.

The U.S. has not started any debate inside NATO or issued specific directives on Washington's role in the alliance, according to two NATO diplomats. The Trump administration has not notified Capitol Hill of a pending pullout, according to a senior Senate aide. And talk around the Pentagon of the U.S. withdrawing from the alliance is mum, a defense official said.

“No evidence it’s real,” the aide said.

Trump could always make a sudden announcement during his Wednesday night address to the nation on Iran that rethinks Washington’s role in the alliance. But even then, the path to exiting NATO would be littered with legal obstacles and face a likely outcry from congressional defense hawks who say the president must adhere to a 2023 law that requires a two-thirds vote in the Senate before the U.S. leaves NATO.

Trump’s bluster “rarely translates into a structural break with NATO,” said one of the NATO diplomats. “Let’s not forget that the alliance still serves core U.S. strategic interests."

Some allies — who have watched Trump wield American leverage as he weighed seizing Greenland and demanded Europeans buy American weapons — are wondering whether his comments belie an attempt to win help in ending Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The president’s rhetoric was designed to “force some visible action from NATO allies,” including France and Britain’s help with the strait, said the second NATO diplomat.

Trump’s threat looked like “more bluff,” the first official said, and fit a pattern of U.S. pressure on Europe intensifying during crises. The officials, like others interviewed, were granted anonymity to speak about internal discussions.

But Trump’s latest rhetoric on American participation in NATO was extreme even for his standards. “I would say [it’s] beyond reconsideration,” he told The Telegraph in an interview published Wednesday. “I was never swayed by NATO. I always knew they were a paper tiger.”

Just hours after the interview came out, Finnish President Alexander Stubb — one of Europe’s key Trump soothsayers — said he dialed up the U.S. president and had a "constructive discussion."

“President Trump has made his disappointment with NATO and other allies clear,” Anna Kelly, a White House spokesperson said in a statement. “And as the president emphasized, ‘the United States will remember.’”

NATO and the Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump’s latest comments led to quick pushback, including a bipartisan statement from Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Chris Coons (D-Del.) who said flatly that the U.S. “will remain” in NATO and called the alliance the most successful defense pact “in history.”

Other top lawmakers pointed to the limits they enacted, which require a two-thirds Senate vote or a separate act of Congress to withdraw the U.S. from NATO. That legislation was cosponsored in the Senate by Trump’s now Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

"I can promise this: The Senate will not vote to leave NATO and abandon our allies just because Trump is upset they wouldn’t go along with his reckless war of choice," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer posted on X, crediting Rubio for the legislation.

Even former Trump administration officials were baffled that the White House was trying to force NATO nations to cooperate with the U.S.-Israeli war after demanding they handle more defense of their own continent.

After a year of “beating the Europeans over the heads with this line that ‘you need to be doing more in Europe’ now would be the worst time to then come in and say, ‘actually, now we're just going to leave this whole project,’” said a former Trump administration official. “It would be such a major setback to getting any of those things.”

And even some Republicans said it would prove a dangerous political gamble.

"If he really means to pull us out of NATO, I think his presidency will never recover,” said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a GOP defense hawk, who coauthored legislation to block a NATO withdrawal. “Nor will the Republicans be able to field a winning team at national level for several cycles to come.”

Trump could always buck the law and pull out of NATO without congressional approval, just as he did with a treaty in his first presidency. The president in 2020 left the Open Skies Treaty — which allowed the U.S. and 34 other nations to conduct unarmed overflight missions to watch for military buildups — without notifying Capitol Hill.

But even if Congress didn’t act, Trump could end up on the back foot in a court case. The law puts a clear legal ban on unilaterally leaving the North Atlantic Treaty, NATO’s founding document, which would put the U.S. administration on shaky ground in appeals cases if Democrat-led states or U.S. citizens with business interests in Europe decided to sue.

“If President Trump does this, he’s going to have a legal fight on his hands and it’s far from clear that he’s going to win,” said Scott Anderson, a senior editor of Lawfare, a nonprofit publication focused on the intersection of law and national security.

European officials worry that Trump might try a different tack: stay in the alliance but starve NATO of high-level attention and military assets. They fear Trump’s rhetoric has already rendered NATO meaningless.

“With Trump in office, NATO is worthless,” said a German official. “We might have NATO, but we no longer have an alliance. We’re biding our time here, but the damage is immense.”

Felicia Schwartz contributed to this report.