'pick An Office, Any Office’: For California Democrats, Any Job Will Do

SACRAMENTO, California — California Democrats are chasing power wherever they can find it.

Longshot contenders in this fortress of Democratic politics — launching pad of the likes of Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla — are abandoning marquee races in favor of less competitive contests, while House members and their opponents are changing districts so often this cycle it’s hard for even insiders to keep track of who’s running where.

It’s a frenetic scramble for office — any office, really — set into overdrive by a confluence of forces in the run-up to the midterms. A recent congressional gerrymander, high-profile retirements, term limits and the first open governor’s race in eight years are compressing years of ambition among Democrats into a single election, forcing politicians to make their next move now or risk spending a cycle out of power.

"I can't recall this kind of political musical chairs since I started working with Jerry Brown, which was in the fall of 1974,” said former California Gov. Gray Davis, who was chief of staff in Brown’s first gubernatorial administration.

There was former state Sen. Steven Bradford dropping from the lieutenant governor’s race to a less competitive campaign for state insurance commissioner. Then, California’s lieutenant governor, Eleni Kounalakis left the crowded race for governor to instead run in the undercard campaign for state treasurer, a lower profile job even than her current one but where she has a larger cash advantage and fewer opponents.

And though billionaire mall magnate Rick Caruso last week decided not to run for any public office this year, he spent months considering a campaign for governor or Los Angeles mayor — a reflection of how often the specific office is beside the point.

“It's sort of like pick an office, any office," said Garry South, a longtime Democratic strategist in the state.

The proximate cause of much of the upheaval is last year’s gerrymander, which aimed to flip five GOP-held House seats, but shifted the ladder-climbing among ambitious Democrats, as well.

In the Sacramento area, Rep. Ami Bera switched from his current 6th District to the new 3rd District, prompting four serious but lower-profile Democrats to jump into the race for the 6th. In Republican Rep. Darrell Issa’s newly Democratic-leaning district, at least 11 Democrats — including local officeholders who were previously challenging Republican Rep. Ken Calvert — have filed to run now that the seat is competitive.

For Democrats, Davis said, “There may not be a better time to run for office than 2026.”

It isn’t just the mid-decade redistricting that is upending the map. The retirements of Reps. Nancy Pelosi and Julia Brownley — and Rep. Eric Swalwell’s decision to run for governor — have sparked races for districts so heavily Democratic that winners could effectively secure a lifetime term in the House.

That’s a rare prize in California, where term limits for statewide and state legislative positions prompt politicians to plot their next moves years in advance to avoid spending time out of office.

Those same term limits have helped create this year’s bottleneck on the statewide ballot. They’re forcing Newsom, who is likely to run for president, out of office, as well as one of the Democrats vying to succeed him, state schools chief Tony Thurmond. State Treasurer Fiona Ma, who is running for lieutenant governor, is set to lose her job for the same reason, and Kounalakis, who is looking to swap offices with her, is also term-limited in 2026.

For California politicians, the imperative to remain in some office is high. Candidates here can only use their current title as their ballot designation, quickening the shelf life of old positions. And staying in office provides candidates a perch from which to raise money that can later be transferred into another race.

That helps explain why some state legislators and other officials are running for less prominent roles than the ones they hold — even in local government, where other politicians are just starting out.

“Before California became a real one-party state, the trajectory was usually up. You would try to climb to attorney general, or governor,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican California strategist who was a co-founder of the anti-Donald Trump Lincoln Project. “But now it’s like it doesn’t really matter, as long as you’re staying on the chessboard.”

If the moves lay bare the ambition of the state’s political class, voters seem likely to tolerate it. The California electorate is so deeply Democratic that it hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide office in nearly 20 years. And regardless of what office race-swappers seek, they will carry the Democratic brand.

In crowded down-ballot races, “people are looking for shortcuts,” said Mark Baldassare, survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California. “First and foremost, in the current political climate, that would be party.”

But even in this heavily Democratic state, the ambition — and race trading — goes for Republicans, too. Following the gerrymander, GOP Reps. Young Kim and Ken Calvert are facing off for a new franken-district that includes some of each of their constituents. Issa even talked with members of Texas’ delegation about running for Congress there after he was targeted by the redistricting.

When Issa decided against decamping to Texas, he dashed the hopes of Republican politicians preparing to jump into the open seat he would have left behind.

There will be more chances. While the factors converging this year created an unusual level of political jockeying, it will not end come November. The state’s controller, secretary of state and attorney general will all be forced out by term limits in 2030. And at least half a dozen people have already eyed Attorney General Rob Bonta’s office — considerations that broke out into the open as Bonta mulled a run for governor.

For many candidates, Madrid said, “this is just placeholding until the next election cycle, and then they’ll roll the dice again.”