‘predictability Is Important’: Estonia’s Outgoing Ambassador Didn’t Get Much Of It

Over the course of his second term, President Donald Trump has clashed with European allies over defense spending, the war in Ukraine and the role of NATO. Estonia has pushed back by spending enough on defense to justify the “5% club” pin worn by its defense minister at the recent NATO summit in Ankara.

That hasn’t been enough to protect Estonia from losing a rotation of U.S. troops, or from delays in deliveries of American-made munitions.

And yet, Estonia’s tiny population — less than 1.5 million — and border with Russia make it uniquely sensitive to Moscow’s aggression, which it can’t confront alone.

Ambassador Kristjan Prikk has navigated this reality over his last five years in Washington, his third assignment as an Estonian official in the capital. He leaves D.C. this month for a new role representing Tallinn in NATO.

In an interview with POLITICO, Prikk shared what has helped him get Estonia noticed in Washington, who he talks to and how he handles roadblocks. He also discussed how NATO can navigate Trump’s antagonism toward the alliance.

This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

When the U.S. announced in May that the deployment of 4,200 troops to Poland was going to be canceled, that also affected Estonia, because those troops also rotate into Estonia. How did this decision land with you and in Tallinn?

I knew of the follow-on impact, and the fact that the rotational deployments to Estonia had also been canceled for now. I knew before that, so that it didn't come as a total surprise to me.

What does it mean for Estonia’s relations with the U.S.?

Between allies, predictability is very important. That we have certain plans that we follow through. This is not just about troops being deployed to a certain military town or garrison. There are follow-on activities that will be affected by that.

I tend to first try to understand the full impact of certain decisions. But also, whether there are new opportunities there, because if there are no American troops there, maybe our own military can use the same training areas more extensively than they would have before, for example. So I think my own thinking was more focused on ‘How exactly can we make it work?’ and then ‘How can we make sure that we will still have U.S. troops coming to Estonia?’

Have you worked that out? Are there troops coming to Estonia from the U.S.?

Yes. We don't have the detailed black and white schedules yet, but our defense minister said in Ankara that the next rotational unit will arrive sometime this summer.

A lot of European diplomats I talk to say they're not sure who to talk to in the administration about their issues. Who have you found useful to talk to? Is it Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.)?

Chairman Wicker is always a very important and good interlocutor, just like [House Armed Services Chair Mike] Rogers and on the other side [House Foreign Affairs Chair Brian] Mast or [Senate Foreign Relations Chair Jim] Risch.

What is slightly different in this administration is that since the national security apparatus at the White House is just smaller, and since many processes that are related to the Pentagon are progressing really fast, the Pentagon is a very important player. Every time I have the chance to talk to [Pentagon policy chief Elbridge] Colby, for example, or Alexander Velez-Green, his adviser, I come off from this meeting much better prepared for my work here.

What is it like to deal with Colby?

We've had many healthy and very civilized, but very strong disagreements. His understanding of the way alliances work, or should be set up, and American priorities in the world are slightly different than my view.

What I do really appreciate about him is that he is candid in his assessments. I always prefer to be with people who bring their different views to the table and are ready to discuss those rather than pretending as if everything is all right, and then next thing you know, they may backstab.

Your president said in April that some HIMARS deliveries were being delayed from the U.S. to Estonia because of the war in the Middle East. What have you heard from the Trump administration on that? Is the delay ongoing?

I cannot go into all the details, but since then we have heard some encouraging news on deliveries. We are getting close to deliveries being resumed. Yes, there were disruptions, and this was certainly not something that we planned, not something that we liked, but it was as it was.

On July 4, Trump spent about 90 minutes on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Does the White House understand Putin's threat the way you see it? 

President Trump is certainly interested in finding a positive way out of this war. I don't think that he has any illusions about President Putin, deep down inside. However, he has declared pretty publicly that if necessary, he is willing to talk to pretty much anyone. And I guess this call is part of this pattern.

We of course have to constantly share our own views about not just President Putin, but the objectives and actions of the Russian Federation in general. Between allies this is the only way to really synchronize our views.

Unfortunately, since the full invasion started, we don't think that Putin has ever been sincere in his willingness to end this war without compromises that we, Estonia, believe no one should agree to. Certainly the United States has not agreed to any of these Russian compromises either.

Estonia has said it could help with demining the Strait of Hormuz. Are you talking to the Trump administration about that?

Estonia stated in the very early days of the operation that if our most important ally, the United States, feels there is a security issue that should be dealt with, Estonia as an ally is ready and willing to discuss whether we can be of any help when it comes to opening and keeping open the waterways. After all, freedom of navigation, freedom of trade is something that has global consequences, and freedom of navigation certainly benefits us too.

Since then, Estonia has been part of the French- and British-led initiative. Within the U.S. administration, our defense minister has had a conversation with [Defense Secretary Pete] Hegseth on this, but operationally it's been discussed between our militaries and U.S. CENTCOM.

What conditions would have to be met for that to happen?

Usually, the mine-sweeping vessels are the least defended and very slow vessels, intentionally so. So the mine sweeping as a set of activities needs a lot of protection. Estonia as a small country is certainly not able to conduct a major operation on our own. We can only go there with other navies, with other countries.

You're going to be Estonia's ambassador to NATO starting in August. The NATO summit just wrapped up in Turkey, and we saw Secretary-General Mark Rutte take a flattering tone to Trump, and try to win him over that way. The EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas, who is Estonian, has been a lot more direct. Which approach are you going to take to NATO?

There's room for different approaches.

Generally speaking, when it comes to Europe and the United States, when it comes to Estonia and the United States, we should understand that there is so much more that ties us together than separates us.

Both the Ankara as well as the Hague NATO summits demonstrated very well that — despite all the fears and rumors before — the summits ended up being moments that bring the allies closer together.

I don't know how long this good energy lasts exactly. However, the opportunity to have these face-to-face interactions, including without the public being there, certainly helped the leaders to come off happier, more positive about their own relationships with other allies and the health of NATO in general.

What's a memory you're going to take away from Washington? 

I live in Spring Valley. It’s a great oasis. It has a distinctively American feeling, but so very different from what many people think of American towns and cities.

Just recently, my family and I drove a more than 3,000-mile road trip. We started from Chicago, went up to Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, and then using the northern route — North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming — went all the way to San Francisco. We've done many of these road trips. I visited more than 40 states, and I always tell my kids: Please keep your eyes open.