‘seems Like Losing’: What The Us Hasn’t Won In Iran

The Trump administration declared victory in its military campaign against Iran almost exactly 24 hours after the U.S. and Tehran announced a ceasefire.

But it doesn’t look that way on a strategic level.

American forces have dominated on tactics, sinking the Iranian navy, crippling its ballistic missile and drone-making capabilities, and decimating most of its air defenses.

Yet the hardliners who have ruled Tehran for the past 47 years are still in charge. Iran still possesses its stockpile of highly enriched uranium — one of President Donald Trump’s key reasons for starting the war. And it can claim a newfound dominance over the Strait of Hormuz, a growing threat to world energy markets.

As negotiations begin this weekend in Pakistan for a permanent end to the conflict, the war has reaffirmed Iran’s regional significance, including its ability to strike its neighbors with missiles and drones — and inflict economic and political pain on its adversaries.

“I don't know how the genie goes back in the bottle without the U.S. massively redefining our strategic objectives,” said a defense official. “I can't imagine what the U.S. could offer or threaten Iran with at this point that generates a satisfying outcome.”

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth pitched the total success narrative on Wednesday, offering a litany of U.S. accomplishments as a “historic and overwhelming victory” that achieved “every single objective.”

But he also vowed to keep U.S. forces in the region to ensure Tehran abides by the terms of the ceasefire, a move that could also leave American forces exposed to further attacks.

Some diplomats and defense officials were skeptical of the Pentagon chief's assertion.

“Declaring victory by saying he will attack Iran some more seems like losing,” said an Asian diplomat, who, like others interviewed, was granted anonymity to discuss a highly sensitive topic. For Iran, “not losing isn't the same as winning.”

And some in the Pentagon disagreed with Hegseth’s contention that the Iranian regime — which Tehran says is now led by Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the killed supreme leader — would begin cooperating with the U.S.

“POTUS is right that we’ve largely destroyed the navy, and most, but clearly not all, of their ballistic missile and drone capability,” said a second defense official. “But that won’t actually change anything. Unless of course there’s a major uprising inside of Iran … but I’m not seeing that happening.”

The Pentagon pointed to Hegseth’s remarks on Wednesday. The White House defended the notion of victory.

“President Trump and Secretary Hegseth are right — the United States military has met or exceeded all of our objectives for Operation Epic Fury,” said White House spokesperson Anna Kelly. In the upcoming negotiations, the president is “optimistic that this will lead to long-term peace in the region.”

But some Trump supporters disagreed this was in any way a win.

“There’s a profound paradox here,” said a Trump ally close to the White House. “If you’re not willing to go to total war, and we clearly are not, then the attacks ultimately enhance the leverage of this awful regime. They know Trump desperately wants out. And they’re going to get their pound of flesh, even though we hammered them with our attacks.”

Iran’s initial proposals for ending the war — under a “10-point” plan — would enshrine several hard-to-swallow elements, including Tehran’s power to charge $2 million tolls for ships passing through the strait.

Vice President JD Vance, speaking from Hungary on Wednesday, called the ceasefire “a fragile truce” and derided some of the early overtures from Iran. Vance will lead the negotiations on the U.S. side during this weekend's talks in Islamabad.

Republican Rep. Don Bacon, a retired Air Force general and member of the House Armed Services Committee, welcomed a pause in fighting but warned that the U.S. merely “bought time” with the ceasefire deal.

“As long as this regime exists, they’ll be a threat,” he said. “We are safer today because Iran is significantly weakened. But the government is still in place and that means they’ll threaten us in the long term.”

Much remains uncertain. Some commercial shipping did make it through the strait on Wednesday before Tehran shut it down again because Israel bombed Hezbollah targets in Beirut. Iran insists a ceasefire include an end to hostilities in Lebanon, while Trump and Israeli officials say it is a separate conflict and falls outside the scope of the war in Iran.

The disagreement over Lebanon — along with tolls and security guarantees — are just some of the thorny issues negotiators will have to tackle in the upcoming talks.

And both sides seem ready to return to the battlefield if necessary.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council said Wednesday "our hands remain upon the trigger” if peace talks fail. This echoed Hegseth and Joint Chiefs chair Gen. Dan Caine’s comments earlier in the day that U.S. forces will remain poised to fight.

Megan Messerly and Phelim Kine contributed to this report.