‘they Hold The Cards Now’: Trump Allies Fear Iran Is Slipping Beyond The President’s Control

When the U.S. started firing Tomahawk missiles at Iran late last month, many of President Donald Trump’s allies hoped it would be a quick, surgical operation, similar to last year’s strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities or the ouster of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro in January.

Though uneasy, they were reassured by the belief that Trump’s open-ended objectives gave him the flexibility to declare victory whenever he saw fit.

Now, more than two weeks into the campaign, some of those allies believe the president no longer controls how, or when, the war ends. They fear Iran’s attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which have rattled global crude markets and threaten broader economic distress, are boxing Trump into a situation where escalating the conflict — potentially even putting American boots on the ground — becomes the only way to credibly claim victory.

“We clearly just kicked [Iran’s] ass in the field, but, to a large extent, they hold the cards now,” said one person close to the White House, who like others in this story was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the war. “They decide how long we're involved — and they decide if we put boots on the ground. And it doesn't seem to me that there's a way around that, if we want to save face.”

The concern among some Trump allies is that ensuring the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz could require securing parts of Iran’s shoreline, a step that would almost certainly mean putting American troops on Iranian soil.

“The terms have changed,” said a second person familiar with the U.S. operation in Iran. “The off-ramps don’t work anymore because Iran is driving the asymmetric action.”

The dynamic is fueling anxiety among the president’s “America First” allies, who worry he is drifting toward the kind of open-ended Middle East conflict he has long railed against. With Iran able to disrupt global oil supplies and drive up gas prices at the pump, some Republicans fear the conflict could soon become a political liability for a White House already grappling with voter frustration over affordability ahead of the midterm elections.

Oil prices have surged since the conflict began, increasing from less than $70 per barrel to roughly $100 per barrel, while the national average price for gasoline has climbed to $3.70, up about 25 percent from a month ago, according to AAA.

“For the White House, now the only easy day was yesterday,” the person familiar added. “They need to worry about an unraveling.”

White House aides continue to argue the war is not just going as planned but is a “tremendous success,” with Iranian ballistic missile attacks down 90 percent and drone attacks down 95 percent. The operation, they say, will continue until the president determines his goals have been achieved.

“Thanks to a detailed planning process, the entire administration is and was prepared for any potential action taken by the terrorist Iranian regime,” said White House spokesperson Anna Kelly. “President Trump knew full well that Iran would try to stop the freedom of navigation and free flow of energy, and he has already taken action to destroy over 30 minelaying vessels.”

“The president has also been clear that any disruptions to energy are temporary and will result in a massive benefit to our country and the global economy in the long-term,” she added.

The allies' concerns have only been heightened by the U.S. moving additional forces into the region, including the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, which is carrying the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit. The deployment places roughly 2,000 Marines and their aircraft within striking distance of the war, capable of seizing ports, protecting shipping lanes and launching limited ground operations.

In recent days, Trump has oscillated on the war’s trajectory, at times suggesting the fighting could end soon while also warning that the U.S. is prepared to escalate if Iran continues targeting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices fell below $95 per barrel on Monday as Trump said he would soon announce which countries have agreed to help secure the strait.

Some of Trump’s most vocal “America First” allies are urging the White House not to rush toward a ground war, arguing the U.S. still has multiple ways to pressure Iran without sending troops ashore. Still, they acknowledge that the president’s alternatives narrow with each additional escalatory step the U.S. takes.

The campaign has so far focused on air and missile strikes targeting Iranian military facilities and leaders, a strategy designed to weaken Tehran’s ability to retaliate without committing large numbers of American troops.

Trump ally Jack Posobiec, appearing on former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon’s show Monday morning, listed a series of ways in which the U.S. could still ratchet up pressure without ground troops — by stopping oil tankers, launching cyberattacks, targeting Iranian financial assets and leaning on allied navies, like Israel’s.

“This also increases the level of escalation, but doesn’t necessarily require boots on the ground,” Posobiec said. “There are people who are deeply and seriously agitating … for the president to put boots on the ground because they realize once he has done so that the mission creep will be so far in that this then could explode into a full-fledged war, and they deeply want that.”

Iran’s strategy has centered on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil shipments. With its conventional forces taking heavy hits, Tehran has leaned into a tactic military planners have long feared, threatening commercial shipping through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

Some Trump allies say the scale of the U.S.’s opening strikes — which killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with dozens of senior commanders and members of his family — may make it harder for the regime to back down.

“You’ve killed one guy, the next guy up is even more radical. You killed his dad and his wife,” said a third person close to the White House, referring to Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late leader. “Do you think he’s gonna be more — or less — reasonable?”

The person added that putting boots on the ground isn’t Trump’s “instinct” — and suggested doing so would tank Trump’s approval ratings to those of former President Richard Nixon after the Watergate scandal. Trump’s approval rating is hovering around 40 percent, down from above 50 percent at the start of his term; Nixon’s approval rating when he resigned was about 25 percent.

“He’s seen that story before,” the person said, “and I think he knows how that plays out politically.”

Dasha Burns contributed to this report.