‘this Is A Very Clear Warning’: After Indiana, Redistricting Pressure Mounts In The South

President Donald Trump’s successful Indiana revenge campaign is already scaring other state lawmakers into falling in line on redistricting.

After Trump unseated a majority of the Indiana Republican state senators who blocked his Indiana gerrymander on Tuesday, GOP state legislators in red Southeastern states are facing renewed pressure to redraw their own congressional maps before the midterms.

The biggest pressure point is in South Carolina, where state Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey had thrown cold water on taking up a redraw ahead of the state’s June 9 primaries – and is already at the center of Trump’s next offensive. Trump called Massey to encourage him to take up a redraw both on Monday and Tuesday, before Indiana’s results were in, according to a person familiar with the calls and granted anonymity to discuss them. Massey didn’t respond to multiple calls and texts.

While it’s unclear whether they will ultimately adopt a new map erasing lone Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn’s seat, GOP lawmakers who had hesitations are moving toward support, a major shift from just a few days ago.

“The voters in Indiana signaled that Republican primary voters want their leaders to be aggressive on this,” said David McIntosh, president of the Trump-aligned Club for Growth, whose PAC poured $2 million into Indiana. “They want them to move quickly, get the job done wherever it's possible.”

McIntosh said it’s too early to say whether the Club would primary any hesitant lawmakers (and if their primaries go forward without new maps it could take two years before they will face the voters once again in some states). But he added a warning: “The leadership in South Carolina, they saw the results in Indiana.”

South Carolina isn’t alone. Pressure is mounting in Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia as governors and state legislatures decide whether any changes to their maps can be made in time for this year’s elections. Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves signaled on Wednesday that his state could soon begin to move forward with a redraw, telling the Daily Caller that he has the authority to add congressional redistricting to the agenda of a pre-existing special session.

Alabama lawmakers are working to adopt a new map, but only if they get a favorable court ruling. In Georgia, redrawing as fast as possible is becoming a flashpoint in the races for Senate and governor, even though GOP Gov. Brian Kemp has indicated the state can’t draw before the midterms but instead for 2028. 

And in Tennessee and Louisiana, lawmakers are already charging forward with new gerrymanders.

Not every state has seen Republicans fall in line behind Trump over the past year. While Indiana was the highest-profile redistricting failure for the White House, state-level Republicans also rejected remapping efforts in Nebraska, Kansas, Kentucky and New Hampshire.

But Trump’s romp in Indiana on Tuesday night has shown clearly that the MAGA base is still on his side, and allies are continuing to make a succinct point: fall in line or lose your job.

“Everyone should take notice,” Tyler Bowyer, the COO of Turning Point Action, which flooded the Hoosier State with volunteers, told POLITICO. “This is a very clear warning to every Republican in any red state, but really any state, that you can't mess around.”

On Sunday night, Trump made his desires clear.

“We cannot allow there to be an Election that is conducted unconstitutionally simply for the ‘convenience’ of State Legislatures. If they have to vote twice, so be it,” he posted on Truth Social. “The byproduct is that the Republicans will receive more than 20 House Seats in the upcoming Midterms!”

Privately, the White House is cognizant that not every state is like Indiana, where GOP resistance to a new map was purely a matter of political disagreement rather than legal and logistical constraints.

“Each state is different. You can't just take what has happened in Indiana and place it onto a another state,” said a senior White House official, granted anonymity to speak openly about the White House’s redistricting efforts. “I will say, people should follow what the president wants. His political instincts are so good. He knows what works. He knows what doesn't work. And from a political standpoint, they should probably heed what he wants.”

One GOP strategist involved in the White House’s redistricting push, granted anonymity to discuss ongoing dynamics, said Indiana’s results painted a clear picture of what happens next: "This is the message — that the voters are expecting action.”

The additional potential House seats are crucial for Republicans as they barrel toward a potentially bruising midterm cycle, with Trump’s approval continuing to lag and Democrats hammering the GOP over the cost of living and the war in Iran.

After last week’s Supreme Court decision gutted the Voting Rights Act, South Carolina lawmakers were hesitant about rushing to draw a new map for it to be in place for this fall. But things have already shifted.

GOP lawmakers in at least one chamber of the South Carolina Legislature are opening the door to redistricting. The state House — where Republicans hold a supermajority — was moving ahead Wednesday evening on a measure that would allow the chamber to consider a remapping effort after lawmakers adjourn for the session. The move faces a less certain future in the Senate, however. Massey said he would personally oppose the measure. Republicans hold a significant majority in the chamber, but can only afford to lose three more GOP votes for the redistricting effort to stay alive.

In South Carolina, Massey has been vocal in his opposition to reconfiguring the map, and has downplayed pressure from Trump to change his mind.

“It was very cordial – no real pressure – but he clearly expressed his desire that we take a look at the maps now, especially in light of the Supreme Court,” Massey told reporters in Columbia on Tuesday.

“I'm concerned that if you get cute with this, and you start playing with it too much, that you could actually end up losing seats,” he said. “I don't want to go through an effort like this and you end up being in the same spot. I certainly don't want to be in a worse position.”

But GOP pressure from local Republicans has built rapidly since the Supreme Court narrowed the Voting Rights Act last week. Four of the state’s top Republican gubernatorial candidates, all of whom are vying for Trump’s affections, immediately called for new maps. Trump’s wins in Indiana only have amplified those calls.

Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who is running for governor and has been lobbying lawmakers to support a redraw, said she hoped that state senate Republicans came around.

“I hope that here in South Carolina, we don't see anything like what happened in Indiana, that we do all we can, not just to help the president, but to listen to the constituents all around the state,” she said.

South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster, a longtime Trump ally whose term ends at the end of this year, said on Tuesday that any decision on redistricting is outside of his control and instead “up to the legislature.” If the legislature fails to act by the end of session on May 14, he would have to call them back in to revive the effort.

Earlier in the week, McMaster's spokesperson Michelle LeClair said his office does “not anticipate the governor calling a special session” to redraw once the session adjourns for the year. As of Wednesday morning, Trump had not called the governor directly to discuss redistricting, according to spokesperson Michelle LeClair.

Ballots have already been sent out to military servicemembers, and the qualifying period for South Carolina’s congressional races has already passed. It remains unclear what kind of map lawmakers would put forward, or how long voting in congressional primaries would be delayed if they go forward.

But things are shifting fast — and Indiana has only ramped up the pressure.

“A week ago, basically every Republican leader in South Carolina was on record against this,” said Adam Morgan, the founding former chair of the South Carolina Freedom Caucus. “Thankfully, the pressure has forced them to do it.”