‘what Is The Endgame?’: Arab Diplomats Worry About Iran Escalation Ahead Of Midterms

Iran’s renewed attacks against Arab countries are raising the stakes for regional powers, with some saying they are losing hope that there’s any way out of the war — and that things will get worse before the November elections.

The fear is that Iran is particularly motivated to increase strikes right now — ahead of the U.S. midterms — making a widening regional conflict more likely.

“Iran would like to prolong this status of controlled escalation and retaliation until the midterms,” one Arab diplomat said, arguing that the regime in Tehran has an opportunity to inflict political pain on President Donald Trump and his party.

The International Crisis Group’s Hamidreza Azizi, who maintains contacts with current and former Iranian diplomats, said the regime sees it as a way to force Trump’s hand at a moment of vulnerability, given rising oil prices and the unpopularity of the war with U.S. voters.

“If Iran wants to escalate it has to be in the next weeks, so Trump feels the pressure and wants to do something like going back to diplomacy,” he explained.

That’s led to a growing sense of despondency across the region, as countries brace for things to get worse.

“What is the endgame?” said the first Arab diplomat. “The military buildup is more than the diplomatic buildup. It seems to me we are going to see further escalation.”

A second Arab diplomat said Iran has, in a way, no choice but to increase strikes.

“It feels the economic pressure along with the major military strikes could make it lose its leverage,” the individual said. “So it’s trying to change the landscape in order to raise the pain.”

Both were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive regional dynamics.

The drumbeat of strikes has been building since Sunday, when American forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on an island in the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, Iran said it attacked American assets in Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq and Kuwait. A Saudi Arabian-flagged tanker also came under Iranian attack Wednesday, with two Filipino crew members killed in the strike. On Thursday, the Kuwaiti military said it intercepted “hostile missile and drone threats” from Iran.

Iran-backed Houthis are also increasing their strikes near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that controls access to the Red Sea.

On Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi blasted Jordan, asking how long its foreign minister believes “Iran should wait before responding to an aggressor that respects neither Arab sovereignty nor Iranian sovereignty?”

“From now on, our response will be ‘asymmetrical,’ ‘multi-layered,’ and ‘depriving the aggressor of security,” First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref wrote on social media.

Trump has stressed that he won’t let political calculations affect his decisions on Iran, but the unpopularity of the conflict with voters and high gas prices have put Republicans on the defensive.

Vice President JD Vance rejected the term “war” to describe the fighting Thursday, depicting the U.S. effort to force open the Strait of Hormuz as a service to world energy markets that will require some sacrifices.

“We really have two options here: We could leave, and the entire world would be way worse off because there would be no guaranteed access to oil and gas — by the way, the Gulf Arab countries are telling us that would be the worst thing in the world,” he said. “Or we can accept the Iranians are going to shoot at ships like crazy people, and we're going to do what we have to do in order to ensure that their efforts don't lead to a worldwide energy crisis.”

He gave little comfort to the countries that will bear the brunt of that approach, downplaying the impact of the latest strikes.

“Right now, there is no active shooting,” he said, adding, “I recognize there have been places where this has flared up.”

Regional mediators like Oman, Pakistan and Qatar continue to try to reup negotiations, but it's unclear that the Trump administration sees any reason to let up on its dual economic-and-military pressure campaign.

Writing in the Financial Times on Thursday, Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi defended his country’s efforts to forge a Strait of Hormuz agreement with Iran by assailing the tendency of some world leaders who “decide they can do diplomacy themselves, without diplomats.”

Others are saying that any return to negotiations needs to have a clear goal. Emirati official Anwar Gargash argued Sunday for “a more realistic approach that goes beyond the memorandum of understanding that failed to outline a practical and acceptable roadmap.”

On Thursday, Trump spoke with Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed, according to the Emirates News Agency. The White House declined to confirm the meeting or comment on what they discussed.

Still, a White House official insisted that relations with Gulf allies were as good as ever.

“The president has extraordinary relationships with all of our Gulf partners, and the United States has been in regular contact with all of our regional allies since before Operation Epic Fury,” the official said.

The embassies of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute — which advocates for less U.S. intervention overseas — said from his conversations with Gulf officials, “they’re extremely worried and right now the expectation in the region is that either right before or after midterms, there’s going to be a major third round of the war.”

He added, “my impression is there is just no receptivity for any arguments for diplomacy in this White House.”

The Iranians also could see other reasons to amp up the conflict right now. The second Arab diplomat pointed to a deadly strike on a wedding in southern Iran on Tuesday that a Reuters analysis found was likely carried out by the U.S.

“This is getting emotional in Iran,” the diplomat said. “This is serving the image of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard who are pushing hard to retaliate.”

The fear of a spiral is not universal.

“I have not felt discomfort from the Gulf governments about the escalation because it’s an escalation in rhetoric more than in military action,” said Doug Silliman, who served as U.S. ambassador to Iraq during the first Trump administration and maintains contacts in the region. “The impression I have is we’re sort of done for the time being.”

Supporters of the U.S. pressure campaign say it will force Iran to bend — ultimately a benefit to the region.

Miad Maleki, a former Treasury Department official in the first Trump administration, argued that Iran’s neighbors had been the “first-line victims of a revolutionary regime that has brought nothing but destruction to the region.” He said the Trump administration had seized an opportunity to transform Iran but “this window won’t stay open through the next election.”

Still, even if it works, the U.S. campaign against Iran has created potentially long-term damage.

Alex Vatanka, who follows Iran for the Middle East Institute, described the situation as a disaster for regional powers.

“To say all Gulf economies are now hostages of Iran for the foreseeable future — regardless of the outcome of this war — is no exaggeration,” he said.