1 In 3 Australians Doubt Us Would Defend Them If China Attacks

CANBERRA — Australian support for the U.S. alliance is strong despite concern over its durability under President Donald Trump, new data suggests.

A survey for the United States Studies Centre, conducted by YouGov, polled a thousand people in each Quad nation — India, the U.S., Japan and Australia — and uncovers a distinct and growing generational divide among Australians.

Younger Australians are more likely to be skeptical about the U.S. alliance and AUKUS and less likely to view China as a threat.

Fewer than 1 in 3 Australians — 31 percent — agreed with the statement: "My country's government has properly explained why my country needs its alliance with the United States."

This week marks the 75th anniversary of the ANZUS Treaty, which commits Washington to come to Canberra’s aid in the event of an attack.

Just 68 percent of Australians believe the U.S. would meet their promise if Australia were attacked by China, compared to 84 percent under Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden. Only 29 percent think it is "very likely" the U.S. would come to Australia's aid.

Samuel Garrett, USSC senior research associate and the report’s co-author, said that while Australians remain “deeply concerned” about the state of U.S. politics and democracy, those views had largely stabilized since Trump’s inauguration last year.

“There was an initial shock factor of Trump coming in that had a very significant impact on public opinion in Australia and across the region,” he told POLITICO. “But on our numbers, it seems that Australians have now largely made up their minds about the Trump administration. More recent events haven't really shifted the needle in terms of support for the U.S. alliance.”

The data shows that while Australian views on China are softening, half would support turning the Quad, designed to counterbalance Beijing in the Indo-Pacific, into a formal alliance as concerns over war in the region grow.

Garrett said this is consistent with nearly three-quarters of Australians supporting deepening ties with middle powers, which include India, Japan and also Canada.

“To the extent that Australians understand the Quad, they're seeing it as potential cooperation — not as a replacement for the U.S. alliance — but building a network of partnerships around the region,” he said.

While only 15 percent want Canberra to withdraw from the U.S. alliance, a relatively low cohort of 42 percent believe it makes the country more secure — a 22 percentage point decline since the midway point of the Biden administration.

Confusion and uncertainty about AUKUS

The AUKUS pact between the U.S., U.K. and Australia, which has tied Canberra to the U.S.’s staying power in the Indo-Pacific, continues to be viewed favorably by Australians — 48 percent think it is a “good idea” for Australia to have nuclear powered submarines, compared to 20 percent who do not.

Only 23 percent of Australians surveyed believe the government has adequately explained the rationale for AUKUS, compared to 44 percent who believe the government has failed to adequately lay out the rationale.

While there is bipartisan support for AUKUS in Parliament, backlash prompted the creation of public inquiry — which has received evidence from senior former ministers, including former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

The inquiry, which has no formal powers and was not created by Parliament, will hand down its report on Oct. 1.

Australians are unsure about AUKUS delivery, with 46 percent uncertain on whether Australia will receive Virginia-class submarines promised by the U.S. — compared with 31 percent who were confident and 23 percent who were not.

Australians’ views on China also appear to be softening, despite Beijing’s recent testing of a ballistic missile in the Pacific reviving concerns about conflict in Australia’s region.

Australians are also the only group in the Quad to view China, Australia’s largest trading relationship, as more of an economic partner (64 percent) than a danger (47 percent).

That’s in sharp contrast with Japan, which has taken a harder stance on Beijing under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi — two-thirds of respondents view Beijing as a threat, compared to just 28 percent who view it as an economic partner.

Both Australians and Japanese lean toward stronger bilateral ties. A majority of Australians (54 percent) believe an alliance with Japan would make Australia more secure, compared with just 8 percent who disagreed. In Japan, 45 percent agreed and just 4 percent disagreed.

Australians remain doggedly accepting of economic consequences for holding China to account on human rights and economic coercion: 58 percent accept there is a price to be paid for standing up to Beijing. In 2023, when a trade war launched by Beijing on Canberra was still in force, that number was 75 percent.

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