3 Florida House Republicans Are Exiting Congress. Now The Mess Begins.

MIAMI — At least three House Republicans in Florida are moving on from Congress next year, creating an aggressive, crowded collection of hopefuls clamoring to fill the midterm openings — including a pardoned former felon, at least five Republicans who ran for office in other states and top party officials.

The massive potential field could add to the Florida delegation’s already colorful cast of characters, could be completely scrambled by mid-cycle redistricting while generating millions of dollars in political spending and create intra-party divisions. And, of course, there’s a chance the races will affect the tight House majority margin.

“We are not in the fourth quarter — we are in the first round of the fight here,” said GOP consultant Anthony Pedicini, who predicted “crazy crowded” fields leading up to the August primaries. “There’s a lot to go around, a lot to be fleshed out yet.”

The seats are opening up due to the retirements of GOP Reps. Vern Buchanan, 74, and Neal Dunn, 72, while Rep. Byron Donalds, 47, is the frontrunner to become the next governor of Florida.

All three are currently in safe Republican districts. But adding to the frenzy already underway: Exact boundaries of these seats could shift, as Florida prepares to take on mid-decade redistricting.

That means candidates are rushing into the 2026 election without knowing precisely what the makeup of the districts will be. It’s a dynamic expected to continue for months, given that Gov. Ron DeSantis doesn’t want the Republican-led Legislature to pass new maps until late April — and has moved to extend candidate qualifying to June.

“I would be lying if I said I didn’t think about it,” Republican Austin Rogers, a former staffer for Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), said of redistricting. Rogers recently announced his bid for Florida’s 2nd Congressional District, in the northern part of the Panhandle. “But, from my perspective, I just have to pound the pavement working in the district that I know.”

Despite the uncertainty, he and other candidates are lining up for a shot at joining Florida’s 28-member delegation; if they wait, they may not see another vacancy for decades.

Contenders for CD-2 include big names in Florida politics, including state GOP Chair Evan Power, who — like Rogers — is running to replace Dunn. Power is continuing to helm the state party heading into the midterms. Weighing a run against him on the Democratic side is another political heavyweight: former Rep. Gwen Graham, the daughter of the late senator and Gov. Bob Graham.

The seat has also attracted Keith Gross, an attorney who ran an unsuccessful bid for Senate against Scott in 2024 and previously ran as a Democrat in Georgia’s state House, as well as Kingdom Insurance owner Nick Lewis. Those officially in the race on the Democratic side got in before Dunn announced his retirement, including foreign aid professional Amanda Marie Green, tech entrepreneur Nic Zateslo and Yen Bailey, an attorney who launched an unsuccessful bid in 2024.

“A lot of national eyes will be cast upon this area. That’s why we are seeing so much stimulation on both sides,” said Ryan Ray, who chairs the Leon County Democratic Party and worked on Graham’s successful 2014 House campaign.

He added that he thought the seat, which includes Tallahassee, was “up for grabs” given “the absolute collapse of MAGA” and accusations that President Donald Trump’s popularity is diminishing, as well as infighting in Florida’s GOP supermajority that left the party with “too many mouths to feed.” For Democrats, a win there would feel especially gratifying, he said, given that DeSantis pushed maps through that upended former Democratic Rep. Al Lawson’s seat.

Power, who met with the White House about his candidacy, said it was crucial for the president to have “reinforcements” in Washington to ensure Trump was “a four-year president” and prevent a Democratic majority from trying to “stall” the administration in Congress.

“It’s not the time for people who have been absent from the fights of our lifetime,” he said. “I am a battle tested leader and I’m ready to lead this race.”

Down in Florida’s 16th District, the retirement announcement from Buchanan came last week, marking the end of his 20-year career in Congress and his powerful perch as vice-chair of the Ways and Means Committee.

Buchanan, a successful businessperson before entering Congress, was also a prodigious fundraiser who helped launch the political careers of several key figures in Florida, including Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters.

Some in Florida political circles have discussed Gruters for the seat. Though RNC spokesperson Zach Parkinson said the chair isn’t running, another person familiar with Gruters’ thinking said he hasn’t ruled it out. The person also said Gruter’s wife, New College of Florida Foundation executive director Sydney Gruters, is being seriously floated to run for the seat if her husband doesn’t launch his own bid.

Combat veteran and U.S. Army Reserve chief warrant officer Jon Harris, who’s worked in cybersecurity, has already made an official bid for the seat. But other possible candidates in the mix include state Rep. Fiona McFarland and former state Rep. Tommy Gregory. Kristen Truong, a state House candidate who’s married to a Manatee County commissioner, has also been approached by donors and supporters about a run but has said she would defer to Gruters.

Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, in an interview, likened the latest wave of retirements across the country for Republicans, which are so far more numerous than that of Democrats, as “rats fleeing off a sinking ship.” The 2024 election cycle in Florida saw only then-Rep. Bill Posey abruptly retire right before the qualifying deadline, which kept challengers to his handpicked successor at bay.

By 2025, two special elections were triggered due to the departures of Mike Waltz, who became U.N. ambassador, and Matt Gaetz, who initially resigned to become Trump’s attorney general but — following internal backlash about the nomination due to sexual misconduct allegations that he denied — withdrew his name from consideration and landed his own show at One America News Network.

Over in Donalds’ district, more than a dozen candidates have lined up to try to replace him, though it’s possible a big name could yet enter to clear the field.

At least five of the Republicans running have previously run for office in other states. With almost $3 million cash on hand — nearly all self-funded and the highest among the GOP contenders for the seat — is Jim Oberweis, a former Illinois state senator who’s run for higher office multiple times and had a dairy business that declared bankruptcy.

Some come to the race with a good deal of baggage from their time in elected office in other states. The most recent candidate to make his campaign official is Chris Collins, who resigned from his New York seat in Congress after pleading guilty to insider trading and was later pardoned by Trump. Collins was the first member of Congress to endorse Trump in 2016 — and he’s launching a flashy bid for Congress in Trump’s home state by buying over $10,000 in ads for the Super Bowl and Olympics, according to the tracking firm AdImpact.

Madison Cawthorn, who represented North Carolina in the House for a term but lost reelection after high-profile controversies and inflammatory comments about his GOP colleagues, is also running. In his bid to represent Florida, he loaned his campaign half a million dollars but raised just over $18,000 during the final quarter of 2025 after launching in October. Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno, who Pedicini works with, is also considering a run.

As if that all weren’t enough, political insiders have already been gossiping among each other about whether more House members in Florida are devising an exit. And GOP leaders have predicted that redistricting could give Florida Republicans three to five additional seats before the midterms, potentially attracting even more candidates to the mix.

“It’s Florida politics,” Pedicini said. “Anything and everything can — and does — happen. Just when you think Florida is done giving you surprises, she gives you another one.”

Gary Fineout contributed to this report.