5 Things To Watch For New York's Primary Day

Today’s primaries are a power test for New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and President Donald Trump.

The results will also be a barometer for major tech interests trying to exert their deep-pocketed influence in Washington and state capitals.

And the final tallies are a potential yardstick for sizing up voters' deep antipathy toward anyone in elected office who has a whiff of the establishment on them.

Here are five things to watch for on primary day:

1. Mamdani’s gamble: The first-year mayor is putting significant political capital on the line to boost his preferred congressional candidates: Darializa Avila Chevalier, Claire Valdez and — to a lesser extent — Brad Lander.

Mamdani is wagering that backing Avila Chevalier against Rep. Adriano Espaillat, a five-term incumbent who chairs the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, and Valdez over Rep. Nydia Velázquez’s preferred successor, Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, will have little political downside. His endorsements stand to stoke the mayor’s lefty base — one that was mobilized by his surprise victory a year ago.

Yet there are pitfalls. The mayor’s endorsements have put him at odds with Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is campaigning for her ally Espaillat. And Mamdani is complicating matters for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who may be handed a narrow majority next year and will potentially need every vote from his home state to become speaker.

2. MAGA’s staying power: Trump’s influence in his native state is also on the line tonight.

The president split with the New York Republican Committee to back Anthony Constantino over Assemblymember Robert Smullen in a wild upstate race to succeed Rep. Elise Stefanik.

Constantino, the CEO of a custom sticker company, has campaigned with MAGA-accented bravado to upend the Republican political establishment. Smullen, by contrast, has tried to make a character case against his opponent, blasting him over inflammatory hip-hop lyrics and questionable campaign hires.

Yet Trump’s endorsement — as well as nods from MAGA luminaries like Rudy Giuliani and former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn — may make all those arguments moot.

3. Woe to the establishment: The power of incumbency is buckling under the weight of voters’ discontent with status quo politics and persistent affordability concerns.

A Siena University poll last month found most New York voters, 65 percent, believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. A similar majority, 67 percent, said the state is on the wrong track when it comes to addressing costs.

Voters are grumpy across the globe. The UK is on the verge of its seventh prime minister in a decade. People are increasingly turning to outsider candidates with scant resumes — potentially spelling trouble for anyone with institutional support.

4. AIPAC’s influence: The American Israel Public Affairs Committee has become a flashpoint — even in races where it has little to no public footprint.

Valdez accused one super PAC backing Reynoso of being AIPAC funded when, in reality, the group in question is supported by the American Federation of Teachers, though the full funding picture won’t be apparent until after the election.

Meanwhile, Rep. Dan Goldman was issued a refund by a Brooklyn coffee shop Monday, which wrote in a Facebook post that “we don’t need your money (it’s probably coming from AIPAC anyways).”

Lander, who like Goldman is Jewish, has acknowledged that there’s “a whole set of tropes around Jews and money.” Yet he’s also insisted AIPAC has undermined democracy and made Jews less safe.

The rhetoric around AIPAC has unnerved Jewish leaders and stoked concerns that the criticism has become a stand in for antisemitism. Mamdani further fueled the controversy last week when he derided the pro-Israel lobby as “monsters” — a position he doubled down on Monday.

5. Big Tech’s turn: Tech firms hit a roadblock in Albany this legislative session. Now they may also be dealt a political setback by voters.

The race to fill Rep. Jerry Nadler’s Manhattan House seat has turned into a proxy war over artificial intelligence — one that stands to become a harbinger for future political fights over the powerful, rapidly developing technology.

AI interests have poured cash into the race to defeat Assemblymember Alex Bores in his bid against Assemblymember Micah Lasher, Kennedy family scion Jack Schlossberg and fiery anti-Trump attorney George Conway.

At the same time, tech skeptics have also moved to shore up Bores’ campaign, creating an industry civil war.

This reporting first appeared in New York Playbook. Sign up to receive it in your inbox every weekday.