A Blue Wave Complicates The Math In New York’s Redistricting Push

ALBANY, New York — Top New York Democrats still want to redraw the state’s congressional maps before 2028. But after Tuesday’s blue wave, their plans might not be as set in stone as they were a few months ago.

President Donald Trump successfully backed redistricting plans in several red states during his second term. The aggressive push led Democrats to respond with their own tit-for-tat efforts. But redistricting in Republican dominated states did not yield the desired results for the GOP — as evidenced by Tuesday’s blue wave — leading leaders from both parties to rethink their approach.

“It is a matter that will certainly be the subject of serious discussion in the Assembly Democratic conference,” said state Assemblymember Charles Lavine, who carries the legislation that would allow for mid-decade changes to the map. “It’s certainly a possibility — a strong possibility, I would say, but I cannot predict what the conference’s position will be.”

New York has been a prime target for Democrats as they’ve engaged in a national redistricting war. Gerrymandered maps could have helped the party flip four congressional seats this cycle.

But the urgency of acting on such a plan diminished a bit on Tuesday night. Democrats flipped one of those four seats, thanks to Cait Conley’s defeat of Rep. Mike Lawler. And Republican gerrymanders backfired elsewhere in the country, translating into a massive majority for Democrats, even without additional New York pickups.

Democratic New Jersey Gov. Mickie Sherrill, from a neighboring blue state,said after the election she will no longer pursue mid-decade changes.

New York Democrats aren’t going that far — at least not yet. Rep. Joe Morelle, who has been the go-between for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and top Democrats at the state level, said “the principals still remain.”

“That hyperpartisan gerrymandering left New York at a decided disadvantage because we couldn’t do mid-term redistricting,” he said. “I will still advocate for moving ahead, and I think other people will as well.”

Redistricting has never been without risks. State lawmakers approved a constitutional amendment this spring to allow for changes. If they do so again in 2027, it will appear on the ballot as a referendum next November.

That ballot question fight will be costly for both sides, plausibly topping $100 million. And it could provide Republicans with an urgently-needed impetus to show up to the polls — reducing the chances that New York Democrats will carry this year’s momentum into 2027’s local elections and eradicate the GOP bench.

“Opposition to this type of amendment can drive out Republicans and common-sense Democrats,” said Assemblymember-elect Marc Molinaro, a Republican who has previously won local races and a congressional term.

This week’s elections “proved” that gerrymandering can backfire, Molinaro said. “In districts that Republicans in other states drew to their benefit, Republicans were trounced.”

That lesson could indeed make some Democrats a bit more hesitant once the dust settles.

Take a region with three districts that are 60 percent Republican and one that’s 60 percent Democratic. That can be redrawn to have four districts that are each 55 percent Republican. That’s a gain of one GOP seat on paper — but it shrinks the breathing room in the others, creating the possibility that each of the four seats is vulnerable in a wave year.

Detailed results of this year’s congressional races in states with Republican gerrymanders like Florida and Texas will soon provide vivid examples of how such maneuvers can backfire in exactly that fashion. And the math in New York isn’t that different.

The New York maps could allow for a new Democratic-friendly district upstate. Rep. Tim Kennedy received 65% of the vote this year, Rep. Paul Tonko got 64%, and Morelle polled at 63%. Reducing the Democratic margins in a couple of those would allow for either Rep. Claudia Tenney’s seat or the district won by Republican Anthony Constantino to be made bluer — but it could also make the currently safe Democrats vulnerable if the political pendulum swings back in 2028 or 2030.

Another Democratic pickup opportunity is on Long Island, where the party has spent years fantasizing about turning the four congressional districts from a 2-2 map to one with a 3-1 edge.

The party improved a bit in those districts this year. But the margins were far from overwhelming — Democratic nominees received 56.7%, 55.2%, 48.9%, and 48.8% of the vote. There’s room to blend those existing seats into districts that increase the odds in one of the GOP districts — but nowhere near enough to guarantee the costly fight would result in a pick-up, especially in a non-wave year.

There are, to be sure, other advantages to gerrymandering. The party could blend the seat won by Conley with Rep. George Latimer’s dark blue district to make both of them locks in the future.

And there is the prize of GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’ Staten Island seat. She received 56% of the vote this year. Her district, surrounded by a sea of Brooklyn and Manhattan seats where Democrats topped 75%, could easily be chopped up and reconfigured with a dark blue shade.

That’s been the top priority for pro-gerrymandering Democrats all decade — the party unsuccessfully sought to use the courts to force a new Staten Island map just this year. That impulse hasn’t changed.

“Staten Island, the people there basically have no choice,” Morelle said. “They don’t really have a way to impact the people who represent them.”

But the state Legislature will ultimately need to decide whether pick-up opportunities like the Malliotakis seat are still worth a fight that’s likely to drown out everything else in New York next year.

“I am personally supportive,” Lavine said. “But because I am only a legislator and not a ruler, I will work with the majority opinion of my colleagues.”