A Jolly Campaign In Florida Amid An Angry Democratic Summer

MIAMI — Progressives in New York rode anti-establishment anger to a string of primary victories last week. In Maine, political newcomer Graham Platner’s controversial past hasn’t prevented him from gaining traction among Democrats with his brash, profanity-laden attacks on the “billionaire class.” And candidates pressing fights against the status quo stunned Colorado political insiders Tuesday by toppling longstanding Democrats.

There’s no question about it: Democrats are having a hot, insurgent summer.

And then there’s David Jolly in Florida.

The front-runner for the Democratic nomination for governor is an even-tempered attorney, former lobbyist and political commentator who was once a Republican House member. The son of a pastor and father of two, Jolly has pledged he won’t engage in negative campaigning and has argued Florida voters are “just looking for some goodness in our politics.”

Jolly is easily leading in the race for the Democratic nomination almost by default; another top candidate dropped out due to health reasons, and other Democrats who’d floated their names decided to sit out this cycle.

But the question remains whether Jolly’s civil style and posture can invigorate an electorate that seems to crave disruption and generational change.

“People want to believe in something better right now,” Jolly told POLITICO when asked to reflect on his “nice guy” image and campaign style. “I think it's a 1974 post-Watergate moment, where people are looking for something better — we’re emerging from a lot of this just outright public corruption, the anxiety over the economy, and so forth.”

Republicans have had their own disruptor in President Donald Trump for a decade — and his endorsed candidate in Florida, Rep. Byron Donalds, is the front-runner in the GOP primary and would be the first Black governor in state history if elected. Even Gov. Ron DeSantis rose to national fame thanks to fights he took on against Covid-19 lockdowns, the “woke left” and Disney.

“The side that will win in November,” GOP Rep. Randy Fine of Florida predicted last weekend to an audience of GOP volunteers, “is the side that is scared and the side that is angry.”

To be sure, the Sunshine State isn’t like New York, Michigan or Maine. The term “socialism” carries traumatic associations for a large swath of Floridians who fled left-wing regimes in Latin America.

Democrats here have to face a more practical reality: Florida used to be the largest swing state in the country, but Republicans gained a 1.5 million voter registration edge during DeSantis’ tenure. Those who’ve seen recent victories in Florida — including Democratic Mayor Eileen Higgins in Miami and Democratic state Rep. Emily Gregory in the district that includes Mar-a-Lago — had similar demeanors as Jolly: calm and methodical, but with a relentless focus on affordability.

Former state Senate Democratic Leader Audrey Gibson, who previously expressed skepticism about Jolly’s shifting views but has since attended Zoom caucus meetings where he has addressed attendees, said she agrees it’s important for Democratic candidates to “defuse the anger” so they can lay out how they’ll solve problems.

“Florida is very different from a lot of states,” she said. “If you come angry and leave angry, then what have you really done?”

Yet Florida has come close to electing its own Democratic brawler. Jolly’s running mate, former Rep. Gwen Graham, ran for governor in 2018 but lost the Democratic nomination to Andrew Gillum, then a rising progressive star and powerful speaker. Gillum narrowly lost the general election to DeSantis.

Jolly argues that cycle was “a highly ideological cycle” that “naturally promoted, elevated Andrew” and that this one is different — one in which, he said pointing to recent special election results where Democrats overperformed, “you don't have to be a Democrat to vote for a Democrat.”

“That is this cycle: People feel the economic crisis, they're exhausted by culture wars, they can smell corruption from Washington and Tallahassee,” he said, “and so they're performing in ways that don't reflect voter registration.”

But others would like to see Democrats even in Florida take on a more aggressive posture. Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon of Jacksonville, who’s running to the left of retired Lt. Colonel Alex Vindman in the Democratic nomination for Senate and won’t be endorsing in the gubernatorial primary, said Democrats need fighters because “people are struggling just to be alive” and Republicans are “literally trying to harm our communities” with cuts to health care and food assistance.

“This moment requires bold leadership,” she said. “We are not going to win by having status quo quiet leadership. … I don't want you to be nice when they're trying to harm our community.”

Republicans in Florida have noticed Jolly’s delivery and have started to reframe his campaign. They’re salivating over Graham’s past working as an assistant secretary for the Biden administration’s Education Department, one the state party accused of promoting policies that “sidelined parents and treated concerned mothers and fathers as obstacles rather than partners in their children’s education.”

Speaking before GOP grassroots volunteers last weekend, Donalds warned “very nice” Jolly was cut from the same cloth as Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Katie Hobbs of Arizona, two Democratic governors he accused of running a “friendly, proper and practical” campaign only to govern in a “radical” way once elected.

“The boring part is not a bug, it is a feature,” Donald said of Jolly. “The Democrats understand very clearly that they cannot campaign on their radical agenda because the people of Florida will reject it. So, what they campaign on is being nice and trying to seem normal.”

Though the Republican primary for governor is contested, Donalds quickly surged to front-runner status in large part thanks to Trump’s endorsement and getting into the race early. He raised $90 million and continues to rake in large checks — in contrast with Jolly’s roughly $6 million raised.

The Sunshine State hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1994, and Jolly only joined the Democratic Party a little more than a year ago. He’d become an independent in 2018, citing differences with Trump, but the president isn’t a focus of his campaign. He argues that litigating the president is for federal races, not governor, citing the successes of Democratic Govs. Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Steve Bullock of Montana.

Eric Johnson, a prominent Democratic operative in Florida, agreed with the approach. It wasn’t necessary for candidates to run on attacking Trump, he said, because the current political environment in which polling showed dissatisfaction with the president was already baked into the electorate.

“The atmosphere that’s driving a good wind behind Democrats’ backs is that people are very unhappy with the Trump administration — this isn't what they signed up for; they think it has gone too far,” he said, citing hard-line immigration measures, tariffs that contributed to higher inflation and the war in Iran. “It’s Democrats’ job to show why they think they can do better.”

By choosing Graham as his running mate last month, Jolly was doubling down on his theory of the case. The daughter of the late senator and Gov. Bob Graham has a name synonymous with a more consensus-driven political style. Gwen Graham has said Jolly’s approach — focused on getting things done rather than demonizing the other side — reminds her of her father.

“I do think that there's an exhaustion with what's been going on with our politics, with the negativity,” she said. “It is not natural to exist in a state of negativity — for extremists, but not for the vast majority of people.”

Jolly’s pick wasn’t based on strategic factors like who might help him make inroads with certain demographics or picking someone more left-leaning who might round out his Democratic bona fides. Instead, he picked one of his closest friends, someone he promised would be a governing partner who could just as easily serve as governor herself. Jolly and Graham worked together in Congress despite their political differences, and they gushed about each other during an interview with POLITICO in Miami’s Brickell neighborhood.

Jolly acknowledged in that interview that some progressives had urged him in the fall to “punch at Trump more” and to “be more of a fighter.” He shared that during a stop in the Panhandle in October, he “let it rip” out of exhaustion on the campaign trail, that after months of town halls he “all of a sudden felt the crisis” in housing, health care and education. A few months later, an impassioned speech he gave about immigration enforcement agents killing American protester Alex Pretti in Minnesota went viral.

“What happened is this campaign became one that lives with urgency,” Jolly said. “That's different than anger.”