A Sleeper Senate Battleground Has Turned Into A Real Republican Liability

WICHITA, Kansas — Roger Marshall was running behind.

The bus Kansas Republicans booked for a five-day barnstorming tour sat idling Tuesday morning, with other statewide candidates onboard. The tour was already a few minutes delayed as state party chair Danedri Herbert awaited word from the senator who some Republicans grumble isn’t campaigning hard enough as polls show him tied or trailing.

Finally, she got word: Marshall would ride separately.

As the bus reached its first stop in rural Newton, Marshall crept aboard — and was spotted by reporters doing so. He then joined the other candidates exiting to greet the crowd like he'd been there the whole time.

Marshall is playing catch-up as he races to avoid becoming the first person to lose a Senate contest to a Democrat in the state in nearly a century. He faces the most serious challenger for a Kansas senator in over a decade as his party stares down a grim environment under President Donald Trump's second term.

National Republicans are pouring millions into the state to prop him up; national Democrats are responding in kind, and Democrat Adam Hamilton, a well-known United Methodist pastor, is suddenly flush with cash for the campaign’s homestretch.

But some Republicans think it’s already too late for Marshall.

“He took it way too much for granted,” said former Kansas Gov. Mike Hayden, a Republican who supported Marshall’s previous campaigns but is now publicly backing Hamilton. “He's been almost invisible, except on national television. And there's not a lot of love in Kansas for Washington D.C.”

National Republicans have privately urged Marshall to take his race more seriously on numerous occasions, according to a person familiar with the conversations who was granted anonymity to discuss them. Marshall, this person said, never appeared too worried about the race. Marshall’s latest Federal Election Commission report indicates this may be true. He raised just $866,000 for the third quarter to $9.9 million for Hamilton, and that filing did not appear to include any full-time payments to campaign staff.

Marshall’s team did not respond to requests for comment on this article.

One Republican strategist close to the White House, granted anonymity to speak candidly, acknowledged the race is an “uphill battle,” comparing Marshall to an “old athlete who, it takes them a lot longer to warm up to get ready for the game time, and they didn't start that early enough.”

That strategist said that the remaining undecided voters are overwhelmingly Trump voters, and predicted they’d come home. Kansans “are mad at Republicans, but they just hate Democrats more,” the strategist said. “As much as DC Republicans are bedwetting, the ones actually working on the races are cognizant of this.”

As the race nears the homestretch, a deluge of bad press has dogged the senator: His campaign used pictures of a Kansas campground without permission and had to edit the ad; his team faces accusations of blurring the line between his official and campaign offices; his campaign reportedly didn’t pay a bill to a local bakery for six years until after the unpaid debt was made public (he apologized).

Two other stories landed the hardest.

The first focuses on a Florida property that he owns, raising questions about how much time he actually spends in Kansas. The second stems from a New York Times report that Marshall, an obstetrician-gynecologist who served two terms in the U.S. House, had allegedly taken legal action against hundreds of medical patients who didn’t pay their bills. Marshall has said he spends the bulk of his time in Washington or Kansas, calling the claims “bologna.” He called the Times’ report a “hit job by left media” and told Fox News he had “nothing else to do to with the process” after patients’ accounts went to collections.

At a Monday rally in the liberal college town of Lawrence, Hamilton told supporters that Kansans deserve a senator who isn’t just “showing up for photo ops” between “time with your family in Florida.”

"I want to know from Roger Marshall: What's your plan when people … show up and they don't have health insurance?” Hamilton said, standing on a hay bale in a shady park. “Is the plan we're going to sue them? Then we're going to have some of them arrested, and maybe a few of them put in jail?"

Hamilton’s campaign cut a face-to-camera ad with one of Marshall’s former patients, who said she was arrested when she was eight months pregnant because she missed a $50 payment to Marshall’s office. The Marshall campaign sent a cease-and-desist letter in response, saying the ad’s “message is false in every material respect,” and went up this week with its own ad of a former patient singing his praises.

National Republicans have swooped in to prop up Marshall with $11 million in planned spending in recent days. And he’s getting other reinforcements: Chris Grant, the stalwart Trump-world operative and veteran of previous Marshall campaigns, will take an expanded role on the senator’s team through Election Day, Axios first reported.

Marshall’s struggles are drawing unfavorable comparisons to the last Republican who needed to be bailed out to win a Senate race in the state.

“This race reminds me of Sen. Pat Roberts’ last race [in 2014], when he was accused of not maintaining a Kansas residence and campaigning poorly,” said one Kansas state GOP lawmaker, who was granted anonymity to speak openly.

But Republicans had a strong wind at their backs in 2014, sweeping nearly every Senate race that year; Roberts managed a 10-point win, similar to Marshall’s 11-point win in 2020. This time around, the national climate is blowing hard the other direction.

Kansas has been especially hard-hit by some of Trump’s policies. His tariffs and spiking fuel prices left the state’s row crop farmers struggling. A plan to import cheap foreign beef infuriated ranchers in a state that produces the second-most cattle annually. And his threats to cut off U.S. sales of Bombardier planes — a Canadian company whose U.S. headquarters are in Wichita — rattled the state’s robust aviation industry.

Marshall has recently shown signs he knows he’s in a fight. The normally strident MAGA backer broke with the president on the beef import plan and on a recent local immigration enforcement action, after ICE activity rattled some of his state’s agricultural towns.

He’s banking on the conservative nature of the state, working hard to paint Hamilton as a progressive who will fall in line behind Washington Democrats. “This guy is the most radical liberal Democrat in the history of Kansas to get through a primary,” Marshall said in an interview in Garden City. “He is this wolf in sheep's clothing.”

At rallies in Newton, Hutchinson, Dodge City and Garden City, he warned that his election could decide which party controls the upper chamber. “If my opponent were elected, it would give Chuck Schumer and AOC control of the Senate,” he repeated. Recent Republican ads hit Hamilton as “woke” and “radical,” pointing to his past praise of the Black Lives Matter movement.

But as Marshall tagged along with the other GOP candidates for their barnstorming tour, holding mini-rallies across central and western Kansas on Tuesday, he was reminded how deep the anger at Washington runs right now — even in ruby-red Kansas.

In Dodge City, the self-described “cattle capital” of the country, some Republicans in the crowd grumbled about spiking fuel prices. In Newton, protesters screamed through Marshall’s speech, calling Republicans “fascists.” (“Quiet, Satan!” a disgruntled attendee retorted.) In Garden City, where ICE activity sent shockwaves last month, Marshall got an earful in a private meeting with local lawmakers over their frustration that immigration officers barged into town without coordinating with local law enforcement.

”I think the frustration is still there,” state Rep. Jason Goetz, a Republican who represents some of the cities affected by ICE enforcement.

There’s a belief among some Kansas Republicans that Marshall has thrown together so poor a campaign that if he wins, it won’t be of his own accord — it will be because of Ty Masterson, the Republican state Senate president running for governor who joined him on the bus tour and has polled a few points ahead of Marshall in most surveys.

Rep. Tim Huelskamp, a Kansas Republican who lost a U.S. House primary to Marshall in 2016, said Masterson is “going to pull everybody across the line,” a list that “absolutely” includes Marshall.

Patricia Woods, a Hutchinson resident, said at a rally that she is “100% behind Masterson.” When asked about Marshall, she said she is “kind of on the fence.”

Masterson, when asked about Marshall’s race, simply chuckled. “It's more complicated than mine,” he said.

Adam Wren and Andrew Howard contributed reporting.