A Slew Of Indie Candidates Are Running For Senate In Deep-red States. Democrats Aren’t All Thrilled.

Deep in Trump country, left-leaning independents are sparring with Democrats over who is more electable in longshot Senate races this fall, setting them up to split votes — and relinquish any hope of victory.

Following the 2024 momentum of Nebraska independent Dan Osborn — who is running again this year — liberal candidates in Montana, Idaho and South Dakota are mounting Senate bids as independents. But they are quickly running into a problem: Unlike in Nebraska, local Democrats aren’t interested in stepping aside.

That puts both the Democratic Party and these independents in a bit of a bind — and could imperil their chances of breaking up GOP control of the Senate. Democrats running candidates in red states see no reason to endorse candidates who have not pledged to support them in Congress, even though the liberal-minded independents may have a stronger path to victory in red areas where the Democratic Party brand is toxic.

Montana is the most likely place where these tensions could boost the GOP. Former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar launched his independent bid on Wednesday, the final day candidates could get on the ballot in the state. That was the same day Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) announced his retirement, in an explicit effort to keep Democrats from fielding a strong candidate of their own.

But while Democrats privately aren’t thrilled with their candidate options in a state where they’ve had a long track record of success in spite of its rightward national lean, the state Democratic Party immediately was quick to reaffirm its commitment to only backing party members, “full stop.” The party has four candidates running in its June 2 primary.

“We are unified in our values and focused on winning races regardless of who chooses to run outside the party,” Party Chair Shannon O’Brien said Wednesday. One of the Democrats in the race, state Rep. Reilly Neill of Livingston, argued on social media that “Montana has never elected an Independent” and said Bodnar’s bid will help Republicans.

In an interview, Bodnar, whose campaign is being run by former staffers of Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), stayed strictly on message and would not address a ticket-splitting scenario.

“We are launching a campaign that's gonna represent all Montanans,” he said. “You know, we're working to build a coalition, a coalition of independents, of Republicans, of Democrats, of Montanans, who frankly are fed up with battling over red versus blue, and the partisan name calling, and insiders that are working to distract us and divide us.”

Montana’s last statewide elected Democrat appears to agree: The Bozeman Daily Chronicle published text messages from Tester in which he backed Bodnar in January and said he would have more success running as an independent, calling the Democratic brand "poison" and an “anvil” in his 2024 reelection bid.

In South Dakota, independent Brian Bengs and the state Democratic Party have been sparring. Bengs — who ran as a Democrat in 2022 (but was an independent before and after that race) — is blunt about the dangers of splitting votes.

“The field needs to be cleared,” he said. “I recognize that.”

But Democrats have no plans to pave the way for him, even as Bengs raised more than five times his Democratic opponent and more than any non-Republican candidate in the state in 16 years.

“We have no interest in supporting the independent candidate running,” South Dakota Democratic Party Vice Chair Jessica Meyers said in an interview.

Meyers’ argument is simple: The Democratic Party has infrastructure and a spot on the ballot, and it has no reason to back someone who has left the party and continues to criticize it since doing so. Instead, they will focus on supporting the Democratic candidate, former South Dakota State Trooper Julian Beaudion.

“All of our resources, whether that be money, time, and volunteers, will be fully backing Julian's campaign,” Meyers said.

Nebraska Democrats see things differently. After Osborn’s surprise success in 2024, losing to Sen. Deb Fischer by six points in a red state Trump won by more than 20, the party sees him as the only viable alternative to GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts and is working to keep it a two-way race.

But it might not happen. Both Democrats and Republicans are accusing one another of putting ‘plants’ in the field to split votes. The Nebraska Democratic Party called for one Democratic candidate, William Forbes, to drop out last week.

“William Forbes is not running to serve Nebraskans. He is running to trick voters,” party chair Jane Kleeb said in a statement. “The Nebraska Democratic Party made a deliberate, principled decision not to field a candidate in the U.S. Senate race. We believe Dan Osborn – a veteran, a mechanic, a Nebraskan, and an independent voice – represents the best opportunity to defeat Pete Ricketts and deliver real results for working families.”

In Idaho, former Democratic state lawmaker Todd Achilles is running as an independent, and the state Democratic Party has stayed relatively quiet. But there are still a handful of Democratic candidates who have filed to run and could ultimately split the ticket.

Republicans are doing everything they can to avoid a repeat scare like Osborn’s 2024 bid. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has worked to tie the independents to Democrats, especially by focusing on their use of the fundraising platform ActBlue (which some have since ditched). And they’ve also issued stern warnings to incumbents in seemingly safe seats who aren’t working hard at fundraising.

“The Democrat brand is toxic and whether it’s fake independents or full blown liberal radicals, Democrats are cooked,” NRSC spokesperson Nick Puglia said.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee — which did not publicly support Osborn in 2024 but also did not oppose him — has so far not weighed in on this year’s independents. The committee did not respond to a request for comment. Democrats’ top Senate super PAC did put money behind Osborn's bid in the closing stages of the 2024 race.

The indie candidates may not have party support, but they have each other. The candidates have had a running group text chain for months. After Bodnar launched his bid last week, they added him to the chat, Bengs said.