America's Foreign Allies Hope For A Post-midterms Check On Trump

Foreign governments battered by President Donald Trump’s global bullying are hoping for at least some relief now that Democrats seized back control of Congress in what appears to be a massive repudiation of the Trump administration.

"I was expecting Trump to take a beating, but not a chainsaw massacre like this," said a European diplomat based in Brussels. "We're expecting pressure to intensify."

Diplomats and foreign officials say they know Democratic control of the House and Senate still can’t do much to constrain Trump — who has shattered norms, laid claim to entire countries and abandoned traditional international alliances. But they see it creating more opportunities to push their agendas.

Top of that list: pressing congressional appropriators for help restoring U.S. support for Ukraine and limiting Trump’s punitive tariffs.

“Democrats will likely want to play the game of emphasizing alliances in contrast with an administration that has refused to do so,” said a second, Washington-based, European diplomat. “So we’ll be able to work with Dems willing to say ‘We need action on Ukraine if you want to pass certain funding or budgets’ — otherwise the decision-making process doesn’t change.”

POLITICO talked to 20 people for this story, including diplomats in Washington and in foreign capitals; Capitol Hill lawmakers and staff; and others familiar with discussions. Many of them were granted anonymity due to the sensitivity of discussing foreign governments’ diplomatic strategy towards the U.S.

Many foreign governments are hoping Republicans in Congress might be more amenable to compromise with Democrats — and more open to foreign governments’ arguments — once they have less power on Capitol Hill.

Some diplomats say they have a more modest, but still important goal — just feeling like they have a few like-minded allies again in Washington.

While it “won’t really change foreign policy which comes out of the White House,” more Democratic power in Congress “can be a source of moral support for foreign allies and partners — and that’s important,” after two years of unsupportive encounters with the GOP majority, an Asian diplomat said.

“What we hope for is something basic — greater access to lawmakers with influence,” a third European diplomat said. “At least we’ll be heard.”

These countries' calculations highlight the desperate hope among beleaguered U.S. allies that a shift in Congress can curb the Trump administration’s stances, even though the president will likely remain an unpredictable and potent force.

“Trump is such a disruptor. Even as a lame duck he’s still Trump and has a hold on the GOP," a fourth European diplomat said.

They’re still going to try.

Asked about specific outreach on Capitol Hill, foreign missions were vague or circumspect, with many declining to comment or coming back with very diplomatic statements.

The U.K. embassy said its Capitol Hill outreach will remain evenly bipartisan.

“We make it our mission to engage with both sides of the aisle on issues that impact our bilateral relationship, regardless of who holds the majority,” said Duncan Walsh, a spokesperson for the U.K. embassy.

Here are some of the ways foreign governments hope to be able to get more traction with the new Congress.

Using the money

Appropriations are where most foreign governments say they feel like they have the best chance of actually influencing the White House.

The second European diplomat said that their congressionally focused colleagues are planning a “big push” in Congress to drum up support among both Democrats and Republicans for a restoration of U.S. support for Ukraine.

“Having more people in Congress in the majority who’ll be allergic to closer relations with Russia and who can hold back on budgets will be an advantage,” the diplomat said, pointing to the bipartisan support Denmark was able to marshal to help land a recent deal with Trump as an example that it is possible.

Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), who is on the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the China Select Committee, said he hopes the Appropriations Committee will use that power to push Trump to lift a delay on a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan and end the conflict with Iran.

“The number one power that we have is the ability to decide where the money and where the resources get spent, and we can use that very effectively to adopt policies that I think better reflect American priorities,” Stanton said.

Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), who will chair the House Appropriations Committee if the new Democrat-controlled the House, is ready to use funding blocks to push back on Trump on Iran.

“When we are in the majority, we will be ready to use the full power of the Appropriations Committee to hold this administration accountable,” DeLauro said. She said her top focus would be to push the administration to address the affordability issues that “President Trump made worse with his war of choice in Iran.”

The White House declined to answer a question on how it would respond if Democrats were to use their power over appropriations as leverage against Trump.

“Democrats have no agenda to improve the lives of Americans —their only agenda is to continue their decade-long witch hunt against President Trump,” spokesperson Lauren Bis said. 

Some in embassies and on Capitol Hill see tariffs as an issue that Democrats might be willing to expend political capital on, given that growing numbers of Americans blame Trump’s tariffs — particularly the 50% levies on Canadian imports — for rising prices.

“For us the issue is trade and the way that the White House has wielded tariffs,” said a second Asian diplomat. “Moves by the Democrats to roll back some of the tariffs or to curb the president’s ability to impose new tariffs at will would be a relief.”

Democrats “will want to make it an issue even if it’s only for political purposes and can’t create economic relief,” said a senior congressional staffer.

Bipartisan dreams

The more optimistic foreign governments are hoping that the Republican defeat will spur GOP lawmakers toward more cross-aisle cooperation, especially on security issues, which have traditionally been more bipartisan.

Some longtime Republican China hawks — including Sens. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) and Jim Banks (R-Ind.) — softened their once-strong opposition to exports of advanced semiconductors to China to positions that align more closely to Trump’s. That might change, they hope.

“GOP lawmakers may realize that association with Trump is no longer a benefit,” a third Asian diplomat said.

Democrats are also eyeing that possibility.

“When it comes to national security, when it comes to the defense of our country, when it comes to China, I would really hope that we'd be able to find some common ground between Democrats and Republicans to just do the right thing,” said Rep. Jill Tokuda (D-Hawaii).

The Senate GOP has already shown some willingness to break ranks with the White House on national security issues. Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.), sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, joined longtime Trump critic Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) last month in criticizing Trump’s decision to lift some sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its war on Ukraine. Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and John Husted (R-Ohio) have urged Trump to end the conflict with Iran.

Foreign embassies in Washington say another priority is limiting Trump’s ability to wage war without congressional approval — as he has in Iran. While there’s a chance of that getting more bipartisan buy-in, it’s unlikely to have much impact.

Trump is likely to veto any such moves by Congress, and presidents throughout history have embarked on military action without congressional approval.

Messaging wins

Then there are the areas where foreign countries could use some positive vibes — and statements of support.

Japan, one of a few Washington missions with a dedicated congressional team, is expected to ask Democratic lawmakers to put out messages of support for Tokyo as it struggles against China’s export blocks on critical minerals and Beijing’s increasingly aggressive regional military footprint.

The Japanese government will want Democrats to “show congressional support for the U.S.-Japan alliance” more forcefully than Republicans have done, said Yuki Tatsumi, former special assistant for political affairs at the Japanese embassy in Washington. That’s likely to include “bipartisan resolutions to immediately counter Chinese narratives” that demonize Japan, she added.

The Japanese embassy didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Democrats also are thinking about legislation that may not succeed now, but which could lay the groundwork for after Trump’s presidency ends in January 2029.

“Low-hanging fruit that you could do fairly quickly is to reestablish that it is not U.S. policy to use arms sales as a negotiating tactic with China — so reassert long-standing U.S. policy on the status quo with Taiwan,” Bera said.

Uncertain times ahead

That said, European governments lobbying on the Hill now or in the coming months may find that a Democratic takeover of Congress also brings new problems.

Some lawmakers leaving office in January, including U.S. Senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), were of a generation with strong transatlantic convictions and supporters of Ukraine, as were Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Michael McCaul (R-TX).

“The new cohort coming in is much less interested in Europe,” a fifth European diplomat said.

Europeans are watching the Democrats’ progressive wing with some unease, as younger voters increasingly question pillars of the postwar transatlantic foreign-policy consensus, from support for Israel to military intervention abroad. Many want Washington to take a less muscular role in world affairs.

And then there’s the risk that Trump will become harder to negotiate with — or pursue destabilizing foreign policy initiatives — out of frustration after his party got pummeled in the midterms.

“The weaker he gets, the more dangerous he can become, both domestically and in foreign policy,” conservative political commentator Charlie Sykes said.

Trump has threatened to block any initiatives by the Democratic majority in Congress that he opposes, creating the possibility of legislative trench warfare that stalls the agendas of Democrats and Republicans alike.

Some diplomats worry that Trump may react to the GOP’s midterm losses with a military power flex targeted at Iran or Cuba. Trump has threatened as much on Iran

“There’s a chance that a loss of the House or Senate will make Trump even more unhinged,” the third European diplomat said.

Jacopo Barigazzi in Brussels contributed to this report.