Arab Allies, Still On Edge Ahead Of U.s.-iran Talks, Hope Their Warnings Have Broken Through

President Donald Trump’s continued threats toward Iran — and the real prospect of an armed conflict — have American allies in the Gulf on edge ahead of Friday’s talks between U.S. and Iranian officials.

But the fact that the talks are happening at all, especially after a risky gambit by Tehran to change the venue at the last minute, offers at least a glimmer of hope to allies, who’ve counseled restraint. The president, who has threatened to attack Iran in pursuit of a deal to halt its nuclear program and, separately, in response to a violent crackdown on mass protests, may be less inclined to immediately order a military strike than his saber rattling has made it seem.

"It is instructive that the Iranians wanted to change the format and location of the talks, the U.S. initially said take-it-or-leave-it, but now apparently accepted the change of venue,” said Michael Ratney, the U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia under former President Joe Biden. “Trump doesn’t seem to want war with Iran — and he may be listening to his friends in the Gulf."

There is a belief, at least among some Arab officials who have been in close contact with the White House in recent days, that that is the case.

According to four Arab officials from two countries, the president and top aides have listened to their concerns about a U.S. attack on Iran leading to counter-attacks on neighboring countries that could spark a protracted regional conflict. The officials, who like others in this report, were granted anonymity to discuss private talks, have also warned about what they view as likely retaliatory efforts by Iran aimed at choking off oil exports from the region and driving up energy costs enough to cause a global economic crisis.

Some of the Gulf officials also warn that a bombing campaign, even one more intense than last summer’s U.S. strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities, would likely not be enough to bring about regime change. Even if it did, Iran could turn into a quagmire for America not unlike the situation in Afghanistan that kept U.S. forces in the country for decades propping up a new government after the fall of the Taliban.

“This is a lot more complex than Venezuela,” one of the Arab officials said, referring to last month’s operation to capture the country’s longtime ruler, Nicolás Maduro, in favor of his second-in-command who has shown a willingness to work with the administration.

Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, are scheduled to travel from Abu Dhabi, where they held two days of talks between Russia and Ukraine, to Oman to meet Iranian officials on Friday.

The talks were initially set to take place in Istanbul with other Middle Eastern countries also taking part. But on Wednesday, Iran told the White House that it wanted to meet in Oman and only with U.S. officials, which seemed to scuttle the talks.

When the White House signaled a refusal to change the location and nature of the talks, several Arab officials scrambled to lobby the president and his team not to walk away, according to two of the Arab officials.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed Thursday that Friday’s talks were still on, stating that “diplomacy is always [Trump’s] first option.”

Still, the president has drawn attention to the movement of “a massive armada” of warships into the region in preparation for a possible attack. But those resources are still more than a week away from being in position, according to a person familiar with the plans and granted anonymity to discuss them.

Even if diplomacy gains traction, it’s unclear if Iran will accept the parameters of the deal that Trump wants. And if Iran is willing to make concessions on its nuclear program, already degraded after last year’s strikes, to avoid a new conflict and ease the domestic economic crisis caused by sanctions, it’s unlikely it will formally surrender the right to enrich uranium domestically. And Iranian officials have been adamant that the Islamic Republic does not intend to give up its ballistic missiles.

Ian Bremmer, the president of the Eurasia Group, a global risk assessment firm in New York, acknowledged that “there has been a level of progress” between the U.S. and Iran thanks largely to the Arab and Muslim allies urging caution and trying to help the White House understand what Iran might accept. But he would not rule out the possibility of some eventual U.S. attack.

One Saudi official, asked Thursday if there was any more cautious optimism on the eve of the talks, would not go that far. “I am not able to confirm that, but we are watching cautiously.”