Breaking Down The Redistricting Arms Race Following The Supreme Court's Vra Ruling

The Supreme Court’s decision slashing a key Voting Rights Act protection has led to a renewed redistricting arms race, with both parties promising maximalist approaches to redraws.

Eight states have already enacted new maps ahead of the midterms, giving Republicans a narrow edge at this point in the redistricting war, though legal challenges are still pending in some of those states.

At least as many are eyeing new maps now. A slew of GOP-controlled states are moving forward with new maps, fulfilling predictions the Democratic-aligned civil rights group Fair Fight Action made last year when they identified 19 possible seats that Republicans could target without Section 2 in place. Democrats are looking to fight back: Fair Fight Action released another report laying out as many as 22 seats where Democrats could respond in kind.

But the timing of which state goes when will be as important in the short term as what each state ends up doing. Some state leaders are rushing to gerrymander in time for this fall’s midterms, while others, constrained by their primary schedules and state laws, are plotting new maps in time for 2028. It remains unclear whether any will shift based on Sunday evening demands by President Donald Trump to disregard those constraints.

Here’s a state-by-state breakdown of where things stand in the SCOTUS-fueled gerrymandering grand prix.

The potential pre-midterms: southern GOP redraws

Louisiana GOP Gov. Jeff Landry delayed his state’s House primary elections on Thursday in order to redraw the state’s map, where his party plans to erase one or two Black-majority House seats that have favored Democrats. Because Louisiana’s map was the one ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, many view it as the party’s best option to accomplish a redraw before November.

But lawsuits have been quickly filed to block Landry’s effort to delay the House elections. Plus, the Supreme Court has left in place unconstitutional maps in the past when changes are taking place too close to the election, a precedent many legal scholars are citing as Landry charges forward.

Tennessee Republican Gov. Bill Lee “would work hard” to redraw the state’s map, Trump posted on Truth Social Thursday, and on Friday Lee called a special session. Lawmakers will have to work fast to carve up Democrats’ Memphis-based district, with the state’s May 5 primary rapidly approaching.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey — who at first said the state’s map couldn’t be altered because of a prior court ruling — announced plans to call a special session to redraw the state’s map immediately. The state currently sends two Democrats to the House, and it’s unclear whether the GOP will target a 6-1 or 7-0 redraw. Ivey’s special session also requires a court ruling to go the state’s way, which is no guarantee.

South Carolina Republicans are amping up the pressure on their state to carve up Rep. Jim Clyburn’s seat and erase the sole Democratic seat in the state. It’s one of the only states where voting is not yet underway, giving the GOP a smoother path.

All of the top Republicans running for governor this year are pushing for a redraw, and GOP Gov. Henry McMaster indicated on Friday he was open to adjusting the map. But it’s a tight timeline, with the state Legislature set to adjourn in less than two weeks.

And so far, some state lawmakers have said they have no plans to take up the issue. Rep. Ralph Norman — one of the Republicans running for governor who has pushed for a redraw since last year — said he doubts the Legislature has “the courage” to act.

Wait for ’28

Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp ruled out delaying the Peach State’s primary in order to redraw ahead of the midterms on Friday because his state’s primaries are already underway, rebuffing the numerous members of his party who demanded he redraw ASAP.

While a 2026 redraw is not happening, Kemp indicated in a statement Friday that the state should redraw before 2028.

“It’s clear that Callais requires Georgia to adopt new electoral maps before the 2028 election cycle,” he wrote. An aggressive gerrymander could yield two or three more seats for the GOP.

Mississippi GOP Gov. Tate Reeves had pre-announced a special session to redraw the state’s judicial lines if a VRA ruling was handed down that is set to begin in a couple weeks. He hasn’t yet said whether he would add the House map to the agenda, but many Democrats in the state are fearful he will do just that and eliminate Rep. Bennie Thompson’s Mississippi Delta seat.

The state’s primary has already passed, so it’s more likely that any addition to redraw House boundaries would be for 2028, not November.

Colorado has already begun the process of undoing its independent commission in order to redraw before 2028, and top Democrats, including Jeffries, have said it’s one of the party’s top targets to counter the potential gains in the South by Republicans.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries also said New York, Illinois and Maryland were on the table for 2028 in an interview with POLITICO last week.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul called on lawmakers to begin the lengthy process of a constitutional amendment to axe the independent commission and allow lawmakers to redraw themselves, a process that could yield a couple more seats for Democrats.

New Jersey, Washington and Oregon are also on the table for Democrats, per John Bisognano, the head of Democrats’ redistricting arm.

New Hampshire Republicans bucked Trump last year — even with a primary threat to Gov. Kelly Ayotte from White House allies. So while the Granite State could theoretically redraw one of the two House seats to favor the GOP, it doesn’t seem likely.

The legal banks-shots

Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon said last week that the Justice Department would look to enforce changes to the VRA following a letter from Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.).

“DOJ has the power to enforce this decision nationwide and must use it to end illegal racially-gerrymandered districts,” Schmitt said on X, though it’s unclear whether any case could make its way through federal court in time to affect the midterms.

Some states are already trying.

Top Republicans in Arizona are mulling a lawsuit in the state to force a redraw. It’s their only real avenue to force a redraw before the next Census because the state’s remapping is currently controlled by an independent commission that would only reconvene if ordered to by a court.

And let’s not forget about Virginia, where the state Supreme Court has yet to hand down its decision on last month’s referendum, which would give Democrats an edge in four more seats before the midterms.

Last week’s oral arguments didn’t provide a ton of hints since only three of the court’s seven justices asked questions, and both parties are projecting optimism that the court will rule in their favor.

Florida’s new map, too, faces outstanding legal challenges.