Colorado Democrats Brace For Their Own Insurgent Earthquake

The insurgent left just shook New York. Colorado Democrats increasingly think they could be next.

Democrats in the Centennial State are bracing for an anti-establishment earthquake of their own. Tuesday’s primary election will test the left’s momentum beyond the five boroughs — and whether the anti-incumbent fever will topple Sen. Michael Bennet and Rep. Diana DeGette, a pair of longtime fixtures of state Democratic politics.

Bennet allies acknowledge his primary for governor race is far closer than they expected, a startling position for one of the state’s best-known Democrats, while DeGette is facing similar anti-Washington headwinds, as internal polling in recent days has set off alarm bells for the 30-year incumbent.

The primaries come after several Democratic incumbents and establishment-backed candidates have already fallen this year, including in New York City last week, where Reps. Adriano Espaillat and Dan Goldman lost to challengers from the left, as well as in Maine, where Gov. Janet Mills was forced from her Senate race by controversial progressive Graham Platner.

“There’s a lot of anti-establishment momentum because voters are so angry,” said Doug Friednash, a longtime Colorado Democratic strategist and former gubernatorial chief of staff to moderate-leaning Sen. John Hickenlooper, who’s facing a progressive challenge of his own from state Sen. Julie Gonzales. “They want to take it out on someone. They want fighters.”

Bennet, a two-term senator and one-time presidential candidate, faces Attorney General Phil Weiser in an unusually volatile contest.

While Bennet allies maintain they still believe he has the slight edge, two Democratic strategists familiar with his campaign said internal polling has shown a tighter contest than they expected, raising concerns that voter anger toward any close association with Washington has made even the well-known statewide figure vulnerable. A recent public survey conducted by the liberal pollster PPP showed him trailing outside the margin of error.

“There may be only a slight Bennet advantage at this point,” said a Democratic strategist close to the Colorado governor's race, granted anonymity to candidly discuss the campaign, adding that private polling has been "all over the place."

Despite serving as attorney general for eight years, Weiser has increasingly worked to cast himself as the anti-establishment alternative by portraying Bennet as the Washington insider, a message several Democratic strategists close to the Bennet campaign said has found traction.

The race has increasingly become a contest over who has fought President Donald Trump harder, reflecting what many Democrats describe as the defining mood of this year’s primary electorate: anger with Washington, frustration with Democratic leadership and a desire for candidates who project an ability to fight.

“Coloradans trust Phil’s people-powered campaign — not Michael Bennet’s establishment, Washington-style campaign backed by out-of-state billionaires, corporations, and special interests,” Weiser spokesperson Nate Jackson said.

Bennet’s campaign has sought the change mantle, as well.

“Michael has a track record of rejecting the status quo and delivering real results for Coloradans — and that’s exactly why he’s running for Governor,” Bennet campaign spokesperson Jordan Fuja said. “As we close out this campaign, the difference between the candidates couldn’t be more clear: Michael’s offering a vision for a bolder, stronger Colorado and his opponent is relying on the same, tired politics-as-usual.”

The anxiety may be even greater around DeGette. The 68-year-old is facing her most serious primary challenge of her three decades in Congress from democratic socialist Melat Kiros, who at 29 years old was born just a few months after DeGette first won her seat.

People close to DeGette’s campaign say the warning signs have been there for months. But her team’s concern ratcheted up in recent weeks as the campaign’s internal polling found the race also narrowing to within the margin of error, according to two political strategists close to DeGette’s campaign. The tightening, coupled with New York’s insurgent sweep that took out a pair of congressmen, set off a panic and helped to finally convince skeptical donors and allied groups that the threat was real after DeGette’s team had spent weeks warning national Democrats they were facing a far more competitive race than many appreciated. National groups have poured in money in the race’s final week in a desperate attempt to save the Congress member, even as some DeGette allies privately grumble that she had not done nearly enough to stave off her challenger.

“It’s not looking great,” said one prominent Colorado Democratic strategist familiar with DeGette’s polling and granted anonymity to discuss private campaign data. “It’s very tough when you’re fighting against a wave.”

That strategist said they'd also seen a recent private survey that showed Hickenlooper in a dead heat with Gonzales in Denver. The most recent public poll of the race, conducted in late May, Hickenlooper led Gonzales by 41 percent to 34 percent, though it had an unusually high number of undecided voters.

DeGette and her allies are racing to blunt Kiros’ momentum. Outside groups have poured roughly $3 million into the race over the past month, including about $2.3 million backing DeGette or opposing Kiros, including $1.3 million in spending since just Monday, mostly for DeGette. Her side has had a nearly 3-to-1 spending advantage down the final stretch.

DeGette has also rolled out a last-minute endorsement video from Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), a former chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, a move that drew quick backlash from some progressives given Kiros’ support from Sen. Bernie Sanders and other national progressive leaders.

“It’s been hard, I would say, to get outside groups and funders, as well as even within the city, to understand this was a real race, because people like [DeGette] always won,” the Colorado Democratic strategist close to the campaign added.

Kiros told POLITICO last week that she had more than 5,000 volunteers. Her campaign said she’s seen a surge of support since New York’s results, including more attention, donations and volunteers and is trying to capitalize on that momentum with more than 60 canvasses planned across the city in the lead up to Tuesday, an endorsement from Progressive Change Campaign Committee and planned march in Denver’s Pride parade this weekend.

“We feel very confident that the program that we’ve built, the movement that we’ve built, is going to be able to combat any amount of money that they throw at us in this final week,” Kiros said in an interview. “This is the people organizing and making it abundantly clear that they are no longer accepting the status quo and are demanding the change.”

Kiros’ supporters say they’re trying to recreate the organizing model that helped propel democratic socialists to sweeping victories in New York. National DSA chapters are hosting phone banks for Kiros nearly every day through Tuesday, while Denver organizers say they expect to knock on just shy of 100,000 doors before polls close.

The effort has accelerated since Tuesday’s victories. Denver DSA has added hundreds of members this month.

Popular Twitch streamer Hasan Piker, who became one of the most visible outside organizers in New York by hosting marathon livestream phone banks and campaigning alongside DSA candidates on primary day, told POLITICO he plans to try to replicate that effort in Colorado and intends to host another phone-bank marathon for Kiros. He is also aiming to campaign in the state on primary day.

Several Colorado Democrats cautioned Denver is not New York. The city is not as liberal, its DSA infrastructure is significantly smaller, and DeGette still benefits from decades of name recognition and relationships across the district. But they also acknowledge Denver has become younger, more progressive and increasingly receptive to anti-establishment candidates.

“Everybody now knows this is a race. This is no longer sneaking up on everybody,” one longtime Democratic strategist close to the DeGette campaign said. “I think DeGette should be very concerned.”

Friednash said he still believes DeGette has a chance.

But if Kiros wins, Friednash said, “that’s a massive game changer in Colorado politics.”