Democrats Are Anticipating A Blue Wave. Long Island Could Be A Wild Card.

NEW YORK — Democrats are riding high on the prospect of a massive blue wave this year. But one part of New York might not be such a sure bet.

On Long Island, Democrats hoping to capitalize on the backlash against President Donald Trump are confronting frustration with their own party closer to home. Republicans are trying to make the election about Gov. Kathy Hochul and New York City’s leftward turn. And the local party machines are mobilizing to defend GOP turf — potentially helping Republicans withstand the national headwinds.

Polling looks good for Democrats across the country — so much so that they’re pouring cash into red states like Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa and Mississippi. But Republican strength on Long Island has survived recent Democratic advances elsewhere: In last year’s local elections, the party held its ground even as Democrats celebrated victories across New York and the country.

“Almost every congressional seat could go either way,” said former GOP Rep. Peter King, who represented Long Island for nearly three decades. “We’re as immune as you can be to national trends. It’s very active local politics; people know who the local campaigners are, who the local candidates are.”

When Hochul last appeared on the ballot in 2022, her Republican opponent Lee Zeldin racked up strong numbers on Long Island, an area he represented in Congress for almost 10 years. Republican House candidates swept Nassau and Suffolk that year, including George Santos, who was later sentenced to prison on wire fraud and identity theft charges, and Anthony D’Esposito, who defeated Laura Gillen before losing their rematch two years later.

Larry Levy, a suburban politics expert at Hofstra University, pointed to lingering crime concerns and strong county GOP organizations as advantages for Republicans this year. The party’s nominee for governor, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, also has a strong local base.

“You've got all these little pieces that could add up to Republican upsets,” he said. “We're in a weird place here in the New York suburbs.”

Gillen and fellow Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi are in a pitched fight to hold seats that cover battleground Nassau County in the New York City suburbs. Farther east, Democrats are marshaling an uphill push to flip Republican Rep. Nick LaLota’s district in Suffolk County. And Republican Rep. Andrew Garbarino, who occupies a Suffolk-Nassau seat Trump won in 2024 by 14 points, is facing a more competitive race given voter agita with the status quo.

Nonpartisan election raters give all four Long Island incumbents the edge this year. Still, after Republican groups spent heavily on Suozzi’s seat throughout the campaign, national Democrats’ main super PAC put close to $1 million into TV advertising to give him an extra boost in the final week.

Both House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Speaker Mike Johnson have visited Long Island in the campaign’s final days, underscoring the seats’ importance to the fight for the House majority.

Hochul weathered much of the blame for Democrats’ poor down-ballot performance in 2022. Although polls show Hochul leading by double digits statewide, she has a middling approval rating and is underwater in the suburbs. A widespread anti-incumbent sentiment could also scramble a wave-like outcome for Democrats, as voters weigh if they’re more frustrated with Hochul or Trump, whom many down-ballot Republicans are aligning themselves with.

The Republican challengers running against Suozzi and Gillen, former state Assemblymember Mike LiPetri and Hempstead Receiver of Taxes Jeanine Driscoll, are looking to Blakeman to provide tailwinds. They’ve used Hochul as a cudgel — though that hasn’t kept away Gillen, who campaigned with her earlier this month. Suozzi doesn’t have a particularly close relationship with the governor after unsuccessfully primarying her for governor in 2022. At his debate against LiPetri last week, he said he supports Hochul but “will speak up when I disagree with policies that she has,” including local zoning.

Some Democrats are optimistic Hochul will have a better performance in the area this time around, even as she faces off against Blakeman. State Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs, who also leads the Nassau Democrats, said Hochul will win Nassau County and do well in the suburbs because people in Nassau have “listened to Blakeman’s bluster long enough.”

The local GOP is also betting New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani will drive voters away from Democrats. While the democratic socialist mayor hasn’t emerged as quite the boogeyman Republicans were expecting, Long Island Republicans contend their proximity to New York City — and the concentration of Long Islanders who’ve moved there to get away from the city — makes him an especially salient target compared to other parts of the state and country.

Republicans also see an opening among Jewish voters alarmed by rising antisemitism and Mamdani’s positions on Israel — though both Gillen and Suozzi have established themselves as staunchly pro-Israel.

“People look at Long Island as a bastion of common sense,” LiPetri told POLITICO.

A prime focus of his campaign has been hammering Suozzi — who, like Gillen, is a moderate Democrat — on the rise of socialism within the Democratic Party. The attack line has put Long Island Democrats on their heels. Suozzi has been vocal in his critiques of both Mamdani and socialism. And Gillen released an ad earlier this month describing the city as “another planet.”

Democrats are betting Trump’s impact will be even stronger. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in both Nassau and Suffolk counties. And while the president won Nassau by 4.2 points in 2024 and Suffolk by 10, his popularity hasn’t held since the last election. A Siena poll from last month found 52% of Long Island respondents viewed him unfavorably.

“I've actually started a movement in the country to fight against the far-left of the Democratic Party,” Suozzi said at last week’s debate. “I am rated by independent outside entities that say I'm one of the most bipartisan members of Congress in the United States of America, and I will cede my time to Mr. LiPetri right now if he will tell us: What does he disagree with the president on?”

Gillen has emphasized her bipartisan credentials as well — including the passage of her first bill with the help of Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, another battleground incumbent — with the goal of inoculating herself against attacks tying her to the party’s far left.

“My colleague to the north, Tom Suozzi, we have both been the same kind of person, same kind of leaders, like we want to try to find bipartisan ways to get solutions done,” she told POLITICO, adding that the “most likely way” for a bill to get to the floor in the minority is having a Republican cosponsor. With buy-in from the other side, “the law is more likely to last and not just shift” when the majority flips, she said.

Much of voters’ frustration with the president has to do with stubbornly high costs — an issue Democrats are hoping cuts across party lines in their favor this year and one Republicans have sought to blame on their New York rivals. Gas prices in particular have been a pain point, as the continued war in Iran has elevated diesel costs. But many Republicans in New York have stuck by Trump’s military action, pointing to the threat of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Whitney Ralston, field director for Battleground New York, a group boosting Democratic candidates, said that while voters on Long Island have been “historically more caught up with whatever the scary ad on television is or whatever issue is popping locally” — like cashless bail, a major issue in past cycles — she’s never seen such unity on an issue as she has with affordability.

“What they are against is the economy that Donald Trump has created and how he has abandoned the Republicans who supported him, and that betrayal runs deep in the Republican Party,” said House Minority Whip Katherine Clark, who recently campaigned with Gillen.

Long Island Republicans, she added, may see a boost from Blakeman, “but they cannot overcome that connection and betrayal.”

Nassau and Suffolk are known for their strong Republican organizations, which approach relatively minor local races, like town supervisor, as “existential” and the “beating heart of their patronage organization,” Levy said.

“They’re hoping the local Republican party is going to be so energized to protect the heartland, it may pay off in an increased vote for people higher in the ballot,” he said.

It’s a dynamic that’s on Gillen’s mind. At the mid-October canvass kickoff with Clark in Long Beach, where local Republicans have gained ground, Gillen warned her supporters about the Nassau County GOP’s investment in down-ballot races.

“That machine is organized, and even more than caring about Bruce Blakeman, they care about the Town of Hempstead, my old job,” she said. “They’re going to turn out every Republican even more for [incumbent Hempstead Town Supervisor] John Ferretti than they are for Bruce Blakeman. … So we need to come back in full force to make sure our people know they cannot stay at home.”

A significant share of the Democratic base on Long Island consists of infrequent voters.

Some Democrats have raised concerns about their own party’s infrastructure on the island. Last month, longtime Suffolk County Democratic Chair Rich Schaffer faced a contentious challenge to his leadership from Kathryn Casey Quigley, a local leader in Southold. While he ended up retaining the post, the battle exposed the tensions gripping Long Island Democrats.

“If we had been ready and been an organized Democratic Party, I think we would've been able to capitalize on this moment much better,” Quigley said. “What you built in advance — or haven’t built — is all going to inform how you do. And we haven’t been doing the level of candidate recruitment and investing in the towns to really make a difference.”

National Republicans see an opening — though the Long Island races have been getting far less attention than the high-profile competition in the Hudson Valley, where Lawler is trying to fend off a challenge from Democrat Cait Conley.

Outside GOP groups have placed millions of dollars on advertising on Long Island — more so against Suozzi than Gillen, who flipped her seat by a narrow margin in 2024 even as Republicans had strong performances nationally. Without significant outside spending two years ago, LiPetri came just four points shy of defeating Suozzi.

That cash flow has tapered off in the final weeks, but LiPetri told POLITICO he feels good about his war chest. Suozzi, meanwhile, said GOP groups shifting their resources elsewhere demonstrates there’s “a lot more enthusiasm from Democrats right now.”

Democrats haven’t spent as much money on Long Island and have scoffed at Republicans’ investment. Speaking with reporters earlier this month, Jeffries called it a “fruitless effort” while they leave other seats on the table, like outgoing Rep. Elise Stefanik’s, a red-leaning district upstate.

Democrats enjoy a cash advantage, with both Suozzi and Gillen having millions of dollars more in the bank than their challengers. (Driscoll had just $3,000 at her disposal as of Oct. 14.) Even Chris Gallant, the Democrat looking to unseat LaLota, outraised the incumbent last quarter — though LaLota still has much more cash on hand.

Long Island strategist Michael Dawidziak, who’s working for the Garbarino campaign, is expecting closer margins this year and said people would be wrong to assume the recent red wave on Long Island means it’s a safe bet for Republicans.

“Long Island hasn’t become more Republican, it’s just that they’re voting more Republican,” he said. “That’s not a permanent ideological switch.”

He attributed the recent shift to “anger at Albany” and said addressing it is something Democrats have to deal with.

“If you're on either side, I don't think you can take anything for granted this year,” he added.