Democrats Just Lost The Redistricting War

Republicans just won the redistricting war — and boosted their slim hopes for holding the House.

The Supreme Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act last week, coupled with the Virginia Supreme Court striking down a voter-approved Democratic gerrymander of four seats on Friday, has all but locked in Republican gains through redistricting in this year’s midterms, giving them as much as a 10-seat boost with November rapidly approaching.

It’s leaving Democrats — despite all the political winds in their favor — fearful that the House is back in play. Their once-surprising comeback in the redistricting race was shattered in the court room, and they are left with virtually no way to respond before November.

"I think we still take back the House, but it's a major setback," said Democratic strategist Adrienne Elrod, who has worked in Congress and on four presidential campaigns. “We have to just win at the ballot box. And we can do it.”

Added state-level Democratic consultant Trevor Southerland: "Rigged maps can overcome a lot.”

There’s every reason to believe the House will still go to Democrats, who need to flip just three GOP-held seats. President Donald Trump’s approval rating continues to suffer, top Republican operatives are begging others in their party for a coherent messaging plan, and Americans continue to feel the effectof rising costs, especially gas prices amid the war in Iran.

But conversations with more than a dozen Democrats across the country on Friday made one thing clear: The road to a House majority in November is harder than before. "[The Virginia ruling] certainly makes Donald Trump's map even further rigged in the Republican favor, I think that gives Democrats a higher hill to climb," said Democratic strategist Jared Leopold, who has worked on dozens of federal and state campaigns. "But Trump has the power to rig the maps, but he doesn't have the power to get his approval rating higher, so I think that's going to continue to be an anchor."

Campaign strategists in both parties had assumed early on that the chamber would be a tough hold for the GOP thanks to Trump’s declining popularity and a long history of the party in power struggling in the midterms.

But the past 10 days have given Republicans new life. The Virginia court ruling means instead of being able to bank on picking up four new seats in the state, Democrats will now have to spend heavily to flip two or at best three seats this cycle. That's after they already spent more than $60 million on the ballot measure the court just annulled in a year where the GOP has an overall fundraising edge.

That money now needed to shore up their House chances could force Democrats to make some hard financial choices.

“Dems are going to have to double down on winning the House — even if that means being unable to expand the map in the Senate,” said a Democratic strategist who was granted anonymity to discuss the political climate candidly.

The Supreme Court’s VRA ruling is a much more consequential one that will have a longstanding negative impact for Democrats’ House hopes this year and for years to come. Tennessee Republicans approved a new map carving out the state’s lone Democrat on Thursday, and a host of other Southern states are moving forward rapidly and with tight timelines.

There are still outstanding legal challenges against GOP maps in Florida and Missouri, and it’s still unclear how many new GOP-leaning seats will be set in stone before November.

Just one year ago — when redistricting discussions in the White House had not yet been revealed — it was unthinkable that 10 House districts would be redrawn mid-decade to favor Republicans, even if some of them remain competitive. Mid-decade gerrymandering was rare, and the Supreme Court’s VRA decision, while widely expected, had not come to fruition and its timing was broadly unclear, making it seem unlikely that Republicans would have a significant edge going into November.

Both court rulings are immense wins for Trump and his political team.

James Blair, who pitched the novel idea of mid-decade redraws across the country to the president in the Oval Office roughly one year ago, posted on X about the decision with a tongue-in-cheek, “Lord grant me humility.”

Chris LaCivita, Trump’s 2024 campaign manager, praised Blair on X after the ruling.

“Always initiate contact — never wait for it to come to you … a maxim too few Republicans understand — but those who do pave the future,” LaCivita wrote.

In the end, it was the courts — not fellow Republicans — that ultimately handed the biggest redistricting wins to Trump. The White House dealt repeatedly with state lawmakers across the country who were not willing to heed calls to redraw — most notably in Indiana, where on Tuesday, Trump got his revenge against several Hoosier State lawmakers who voted against his plan.

And Democrats are unable to respond with more of their own gerrymanders this year, hamstrung by independent commissions, state laws, already-aggressive gerrymanders and their own cohort of reluctant lawmakers.

Still, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries pledged, “Our fight is not over. We are just getting started.”

The Republican wins may be locked in for 2026, but 2028 is another story. Democrats are already laying the groundwork to go scorched-earth. Republicans who so far haven’t budged over the last year may also hop in, especially the Southern states that don’t seem likely to redraw before November, like Georgia.

“It’s not over until it’s over,” said Adam Kincaid, the president of the National Republican Redistricting Trust who drew Texas’ map last summer.

Erin Doherty, Liz Crampton, and Lisa Kashinsky contributed to this report.