Democrats Target Oklahoma’s Deep-red Governor’s Race

The Democratic Governors Association announced Tuesday it is investing half a million dollars to flip the governor’s mansion in Oklahoma — a state the president won by 34 points in 2024.

The race between Republican former state Sen. Mike Mazzei and Democratic state Rep. Cyndi Munson is a statistical tie, according to recent polls. That includes an internal Munson poll from Workbench Strategy obtained by POLITICO, showing Mazzei has an edge but within the margin of error.

The investment marks an unusually aggressive Democratic play in one of the nation’s deepest-red strongholds and underscores how wide a field Democrats are playing in the final stretch of the midterms.

The last Democrat to win the governor’s race was Brad Henry in 2006, but Democrats are betting that the relatively small investment in what is shaping up to be a big Democratic year could be enough to spur an enormous upset. They argue their dollars will stretch further than they do in other states, helping Munson blanket the airwaves with both digital and TV ads.

“Cyndi Munson is a great candidate who has put Oklahoma on the map by running a strong, aggressive, grassroots campaign focused on what Oklahomans care about,” said DGA spokesperson Kevin Donahoe, adding that the DGA believes Munson is “in a strong position” to win.

The investment also spotlights yet another Trump-backed Republican winning a bitter primary only to struggle in the general election — a vivid example of why many in the party have been nervous about the president putting his finger on the scale.

Trump also picked Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and businessman Anthony Constantino for a New York House seat. Both are now struggling in places Trump won easily two years ago.

Trump endorsed Mazzei in the August GOP primary runoff over state Attorney General Gentner Drummond, but three Republicans familiar with the Oklahoma governor’s race, granted anonymity to candidly discuss the contest, framed Mazzei as a weaker-than-average candidate.

Trump’s interest in the race is driven in part by a planned aluminum smelter in Oklahoma, which the president says exemplifies his push to revive American manufacturing and produce aluminum domestically. Drummond had sued to stop the project and later sought an injunction to halt construction, citing environmental, agricultural and foreign ownership concerns.

In June, Trump attacked Drummond by name, branding him a “FAKE REPUBLICAN.” This month, the president campaigned for Mazzei, describing him as “a man who had a very tough primary” against “a very good politician” — and won. The president also touted the smelter project, which he described as “the largest aluminum factory perhaps in the world” and said the state was going to “make a fortune with it.”

Mazzei defeated Drummond by roughly 2,000 votes. But that bitter primary has Republicans concerned that some of their voters aren’t going to come home to Mazzei in November.

The Workbench poll, which sampled 600 likely voters between Oct. 8 and 13, found 49 percent support for Mazzei and 45 percent support for Munson before respondents were presented any messaging about either candidate. That 4-point margin falls just at the edge of the survey’s margin of error.

DGA officials say the investment was also spurred by results from the poll that showed 50 percent of Drummond GOP runoff voters plan to support Munson. The DGA excitement over that figure comes despite a small 72-person sample size for that subgroup. Even with a large margin of error, the poll suggests potential crossover appeal between the two.

While Mazzei-aligned Republicans concede the primary was bruising, they remain confident he’ll prevail.

“There is no pathway for a liberal Democrat,” said Jahan Wilcox, a spokesperson for Mazzei. “Speculation about the eventual outcome of this race comes only from DC insiders who don’t know a thing about Oklahoma.”

RGA spokesperson Kollin Crompton added that “the choice in this election is clear,” saying that Mazzei “wants to lower taxes and protect Oklahoma families.”

The White House, asked for comment, referred back to the president’s remarks about Mazzei at the Oklahoma rally. The Republican National Committee did not respond to a request for comment.

Still, the Republicans familiar with the race listed a number of vulnerabilities that could hobble GOP turnout for Mazzei. His years in the state Senate and tenure as Gov. Kevin Stitt’s budget director have fueled perceptions that he is a political insider. His close association with Trump could complicate his appeal to farmers frustrated with the administration’s policies. And some Republicans question whether he has the personal appeal to energize voters.

“[Mazzei] has a very strong bio but in person, he’s just not strong,” said one of the Republicans familiar with the dynamics of the Oklahoma governor’s race. “That will bring the race closer than it should be.”

Democrats also see Munson as a particularly strong candidate — despite $1.4 million in negative ads against her — with the internal Workbench poll showing Munson with net positive favorability, while Mazzei is underwater at minus 12 points.

Despite those numbers, Republicans don’t think they’ll lose the race, though they concede it’s far too close for comfort.

"Will he win? Yes. Will it be way too close? Yes,” said a second Republican familiar with the race.

The announcement comes on the heels of the DGA’s recent $10 million investment in toss-up gubernatorial contests, including going on the offense to flip governors’ mansions in Georgia, Iowa, Nevada and Ohio.