Democrats Test An Affordability Message In One Of The Nation’s Richest Districts

For many of the Democrats running in New Jersey’s 7th District, Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill’s resounding win last month reinforced a strategy they were already testing on the ground: make the campaign about affordability.

It’s a message Democrats hope to weaponize nationally as they try to claw back the House — but especially in this expensive, commuter-heavy district held by Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr., one of their top pickup targets in 2026. They’re convinced the focus on cost of living cuts through here — a district that has one of the highest median household incomes in the country, but where not all residents are immune to financial strains.

“If affordability got Mikie elected very handily in the state, then I think that’s what we have to focus on with voters who are really struggling in this district,” said Maggie Savoca of One NJ7, a grassroots group focused on flipping Kean’s seat. Even in one of the wealthier districts in the country, she said, people are still finding it “harder and harder to afford the necessities, as well as luxuries, that they may have been afforded five, 10, 15 years ago.”

Republicans are wary about the midterms after a spate of Democratic wins and overperformances across the country — most recently in this week’s special election in Tennessee, where the Democrat lost by a 9-point margin after President Donald Trump’s 22-point victory in the district last year.

Democrats were already feeling confident about their chances of flipping Kean’s seat — a crowded Democratic field emerged months ago — and have been further emboldened by last month’s election results. Sherrill’s 14-point victory statewide also included her carrying the 7th District by a little more than 1 point, according to a POLITICO analysis of election results from precincts in the district.

The Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the district from “lean Republican” to “toss up” after Sherrill’s victory, pointing to the “combination of a tougher environment for the congressman, a likely stronger Democratic nominee, and this district’s long-term shift away from the GOP.”

Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district — 217,000 to 196,000 — and there are 211,000 unaffiliated voters. Trump won NJ-07 by around 1 point in 2024, when Kean was elected to a second term with a 5-point margin. Democrats, who have a majority in New Jersey's congressional delegation, have been attempting to claw the seat back after the latest bout of redistricting, which shed some of the more Democratic-leaning areas.

Still, it won’t be an easy task for Democrats to take down Kean. As of the end of September, he had around $2 million on hand, and is also likely to get help from outside reinforcements. And while Democrats are betting that the economy will still be a sore spot for Trump and Republicans come next year, it’s hard to predict exactly how that will play out in the coming months.

“We’ll certainly learn lessons from the 2025 results, but moving from Trump +1 to Mikie +1 is hardly a dramatic shift,” Kean campaign consultant Harrison Neely said in a statement. “Congressman Kean has delivered real results — restoring the full property tax deduction for middle-class families, protecting Medicaid, expanding the childcare tax credit, and staying laser-focused on affordability. That’s a strong record to run on.”

It’s also a record that Democrats think they can flip the script on like Sherrill did — in part by pointing to Kean’s support of Trump. Democrats argued in this year’s elections that the president had not followed through on his campaign promises when it comes to affordability, and made a point of tying Republican candidates to Trump. Kean earned a Trump endorsement earlier this year, which likely staved off a primary challenger, but could be fodder for Democratic attacks come next year.

Republicans arelooking to regain their footing on the economy after Democrats’ recent electoral performances. In recent weeks, the administration has made an effort to zero in on addressing the cost of living — an issue that even brought Trump together with New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, whom Trump aggressively criticized over his campaign. On Tuesday, the president railed against Democrats’ affordability messaging, calling it a “scam” and a “con job.”

“Every single person has experienced the price of goods and electricity and gas go up,” said physician Tina Shah, one of the Democratic contenders in NJ-07. “This is because of the destruction that Trump has done and his administration. It's very much front and center, and hand in hand is a Congress that's allowing him to do this.”

But before they get to take on Kean, the Democrats first have to get through a crowded primary. With so many Democrats running on the same message of affordability, the candidates are starting to chart out how to best make their pitch to primary voters as to why they are the best choice to flip the seat.

Other candidates include criminal justice professor Beth Adubato; Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot who has drawn comparisons to Sherrill; attorney Valentina Mendoza; climate scientist Megan O’Rourke, who left the Department of Agriculture because of the Trump administration; Michael Roth, a former Small Business Administration head in the Biden administration; Somerset County Commissioner Sara Sooy; businessperson Brian Varela; and former Summit councilmember Greg Vartan.

Sherrill has not endorsed in the primary in the 7th, nor has she weighed in on any of the state’s other competitive Democratic primaries.

There’s an overwhelming consensus on the need to bring down health care and energy costs, which Democrats are betting will appeal to voters regardless of party affiliation or background.

When asked how their message will resonate with Democratic voters in the crowded primary, some point to their own backgrounds receiving public assistance or trying to make ends meet, like O’Rourke, who said she has a “first hand knowledge of having a safety net,” and Varela, who said he knows “what it's like for someone to lay awake at night” worrying about costs.

Others highlight their professional careers, like Shah working with patients who have struggled to afford health care, Roth's time at the SBA or Bennett’s experience in the military and working in health care.

Yasmin Radjy, executive director of Democratic grassroots group Swing Left, which is going to start engaging in the district in January, urged Democrats to not rely on general affordability messaging, and instead make clear how the district will be impacted and “connect to the understanding that people feel exhausted and overwhelmed and really believe the system is broken.”

“Everybody’s talking about affordability — every Republican, every Democrat,” said Radjy. “The message has been received. It doesn’t mean everyone’s message is good, believable, is going to be winning.”

In a sweeping seat like the 7th, that message is likely to change across the district, which stretches from just outside of New York City to the border of Pennsylvania. Some parts of the seat encompass wealthy suburban areas, where Democrats have made gains over recent cycles. While those voters will be key to a Democratic victory come the fall, some candidates, like Mendoza, are also planning to appeal to voters in communities where they think the affordability conversation is “glossing over” constituents.

“Let’s talk about communities that are typically most heavily impacted by affordability in this country, and that happens to be minorities,” she said, adding that “centrist candidates will not galvanize enough of a base.” “When we have those conversations, it feels sterile compared to most people’s realities who don't happen to be affluent.”

And Roth pointed to farmers in the more rural areas of the district that have struggled and steel manufacturers who have had to grapple with rising costs: “People all across the district are hurting in different ways,” he said. “What we need to be able to do is localize our message and our solutions based on the diversity that's in the district.”

Jessica Piper contributed to this report.