Despite His Rhetoric, Trump’s Military Options In Venezuela Are Limited

President Donald Trump has amassed an unprecedented naval force in the Caribbean, threatened a ground invasion in Venezuela and warned nearby countries could get pulled into his operation against drug-smugglers.

But the president’s options in the region are limited — at best.

Trump, in a special episode of “The Conversation” podcast Monday with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns, said Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s “days are numbered” and refused to rule out troops marching into the South American country. He added that Mexico and Colombia also could face military operations that target their drug trafficking.

But no sizable American ground force is waiting in the region. And it would take a significant, visible logistical effort to move thousands of troops to a friendly country or U.S. territory nearby to stage an invasion. That leaves airstrikes as Trump’s most feasible and immediate option — despite his warnings of stronger action.

Interviews with six Republican lawmakers, Pentagon officials and White House advisers underscore the extreme challenges of a ground invasion and collective belief that Trump’s rhetoric — bolstered by his sudden bombing of the Iranian nuclear program this summer — could be enough to convince Maduro to step down.

The threats are “a designed strategy to pressure Maduro to leave,” said a person close to the White House and familiar with the administration’s thinking.

Others with knowledge of the situation dismissed the idea of involvement in Mexico or Colombia. “This has a 99.9 percent chance of not happening,” said a second person close to the White House, who like others, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive discussions. “But leaving that .01 percent chance on the table will bring people to the table.”

The tough talk is nothing new for a president who has made open threats against enemies — real and perceived — a hallmark of his governing style. Trump has also worked hard to craft an image as a peacemaker, making his push for peace deals somewhat at odds with his threats to attack three separate countries in the Western Hemisphere.

“This is not the Monroe Doctrine 2.0, this is like the Monroe Doctrine 5.0,” said Steve Bannon, the former White House chief strategist who remains a powerful voice in the MAGA movement.

The naval buildup puts “additional pressure on Maduro to surrender and do what Trump wants him to do, which is to go to Turkey, leave the country,” he said. “Because I think the negotiations are kind of down to that — where this guy ends up [and] most of the stuff there now is for pressure.”

The White House and the Pentagon declined to comment.

About a dozen American warships in the region — which were recently bolstered by the arrival of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford — are capable of launching nearly 200 Tomahawk missiles at targets on land in the region, according to a recent Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis. But past campaigns suggest that at least 50,000 troops — including 20,000 soldiers — would be required for a mass attack.

“The United States does not have the ground forces needed for an invasion,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and co-author of the analysis. The Venezuelan ground forces number some 90,000 including the army, marines and National Guard. The United States has only 2,200 Marines [nearby], and there’s no movement to reinforce them.”

The politics are another constraint on Trump, with his MAGA base divided over the entire gambit. Trump and Vice President JD Vance ran on a ticket that rejected the idea of the U.S. acting as the world’s police force. And the administration has decried the long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as a relic of a failed post-Cold War system.

Even some Republican lawmakers, who have largely been publicly supportive of Trump’s strikes on boats in the Caribbean Sea, expressed unease with the idea of a ground invasion.

“I don’t think we need them right now,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a Trump ally who refers to Maduro as a “narco-terrorist dictator.”

Several other Trump backers pushed back against the idea of involving U.S. service members.

“I’m not a supporter of ground troops,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said in a Tuesday interview. “I’m not a supporter of regime change forced by the United States. I mean, if Maduro decides to go of his own accord, fine. But I’ve never been a supporter of regime change.”

An invasion could also lead to mounting costs and uncertain success. And it could quickly devolve into guerrilla warfare in Venezuela’s jungled interior if forces loyal to Maduro decided to fight it out, said a former Trump administration official.

Any sort of U.S. ground force in Venezuela could take months of preparation to pull together and would be visible in whatever neighboring nation they would have to assemble in, said a defense official. “This isn’t something you can just dial up and go.”

The public also doesn’t appear to support such measures. A recent CBS News poll found 70 percent of the American public is opposed to Trump taking military action in Venezuela.

“The Trump administration was hoping to scare Maduro into departing Venezuela, but if that doesn’t work, the remaining military options are unappealing,” said a second former defense official. “And if Maduro does indeed depart, by choice or by force, then it leaves open the question of whether U.S. forces will be needed to secure the country, and for how long.”

Diana Nerozzi, Connor O’Brien, Leo Shane and Adam Wren contributed to this report.